THE MATH Weekly – For the Week Ending Sunday, Oct 19 – Obama 378, McCain 160

THE MATH Weekly – For the Week Ending Sunday, October 19, 2008


Contents:
1. Current Stats
2. Electoral Votes
3. Strength of Electoral Votes
4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004
5. Popular Vote
6. National Polls
7. Obama’s Seventeen
8. Trading and the Wigand Electoral Average
9. This Week’s State Polls (Detail)
10. Probabilities and Potentials
11. Sources and Links







1. Current Stats

With only 16 days remaining until the election, the economy remains the top issue affecting voters. Instead of talking about the economy, the McCain campaign has stayed in the gutter and lodged accusations about ACORN and voter registration fraud while hypocritically trying to purge as many votes as possible. Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner has successfully appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court to keep 200,000 new voter registrations on the rolls in Ohio, as the Obama campaign has demanded that a special prosecutor investigate GOP voter fraud activities in collusion with the U.S. Department of Justice and related to the firings of seven U.S. attorneys in late 2006.

States moving to the left this week are: Colorado (9), Maine (4), New Mexico (5), North Dakota (3), West Virginia (5) and Wisconsin (10). States moving to the right this week are: Florida (27), Minnesota (10) and Mississippi (6). North Dakota and West Virginia switched sides this week, from red to blue.


Election Day: Tuesday, November 4, 2008


Number of Days Until the Election: 16 days


Current Projected Electoral Votes:
Obama – 378
McCain – 160
Needed to Win – 270


Current Projected Popular Vote:
Obama – 68,817,727 … (49.9%) … (+7,744,702)
McCain – 61,073,025 … (44.3%)
Barr – 3,502,516 … (2.5%)
Nader – 2,990,313 … (2.2%)
McKinney – 275,962 … (0.2%)
Undecided/Other – 1,597,903 … (1.2%)


Swing States Leaning:
Obama – 65.84%
McCain – 34.16%


Projected Popular Vote if Undecideds Break the Same as Swing States:
Obama – 69,869,786 … (50.5%) … (+8,250,917)
McCain – 61,618,869 … (44.6%)
All Others – 6,768,791 … (4.9%)


Probability of Obama Win – 100.0% (if the election were held today)


Strength of Projection – 95.6%



^ FIGURE 1a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ FIGURE 1b. This chart shows the seats projected to be picked up by Democrats in November in Congress. The projection is from Electionprojection.com.




2. Electoral Votes (270 needed to win)

Obama is currently winning 54.1% of the electoral votes outside of the margin of error, compared to McCain’s 28.8%. The number of electoral votes within the margin of error grows to 92 this week. Once we consider Obama’s lead in the swing states (65.8%-34.2%) and add how well he is doing in the states within the margin of error (momentum), his electoral vote projection arrives at 378, down from 380 last week.



^ FIGURE 2a. This chart shows the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%). A pie chart is used to illustrate the percentage of the total 538 electoral votes up for grabs this year.



^ FIGURE 2b. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and the possible route for the next seven days.







3. Strength of Electoral Votes

The electoral votes from states within the margin of error jumped from 71 electoral votes last week to 92 electoral votes this week. Florida (27) and North Dakota (3) moved into the margin of error this week, while Colorado (9) moved out.



^ FIGURE 3a. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%). A pie chart is used to illustrate the overall percentage of the electoral votes in each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak” means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows the weekly tracking of the five categories of strength for the electoral votes. The dark blue line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Strong Obama category (Obama leading by 10% or greater). The light blue line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Weak Obama category (Obama leading between 5% and 9%). The yellow line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the margin of error (either candidate leading by 4% or less). The pink line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Weak McCain category (McCain leading between 5% and 9%). The red line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Strong McCain category (McCain leading by 10% or greater).



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate sorted into each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak” means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error and is referred to as “Lean.”




4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004

At this point in 2004, John Kerry was leading George W. Bush 284 electoral votes to 247 electoral votes, with 7 tied. Comparing Obama’s projection to Kerry’s in 2004, we see that Obama has 151 more Strong electoral votes now than Kerry had at this point then. And Obama has 88 fewer Weak electoral votes than Kerry had then. There are also 35 fewer electoral votes within the margin of error than there were at this point in 2004. Bush was stronger in 2004 than McCain is now, as Bush had 1 more Strong electoral vote and 27 more Weak electoral votes then.



^ FIGURE 4a. Electoral-Vote.com is a valuable source for electoral vote tracking. This graph shows the electoral progress of the 2004 election between John Kerry and George Bush, along with descriptions of factors that seems to have changed the course of the race. I include on the left side a snapshot of the electoral vote projection for each candidate on this date back in 2004.



^ FIGURE 4b. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%) on this date in 2004 (Kerry vs. Bush). A pie chart is used to illustrate the overall percentage of the electoral votes in each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error.



^ FIGURE 4c. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com.) Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the near future.




5. Popular Vote

Obama is currently projected to win 49.9% of the popular vote, and he is leading McCain by 5.6%. Barr is taking 2.5% of the vote, while Nader is polling at 2.2% and McKinney is polling at 0.2%. The percentage of Undecideds holds this week at 1.2%. Factoring in the swing states to get an idea how the Undecideds will vote, Obama’s projected popular vote margin increases to 5.9%.



^ FIGURE 5a. This chart shows the percentage of the projected popular vote for each candidate with a percentage still undecided. A pie chart is used to illustrate the percentage of the projected 126 million votes up for grabs this year.



^ FIGURE 5b. I am projecting 136 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth and new voter registration totals for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations in millions as well as the percentages. The scale is between 0 and 136 (in millions), and a majority of votes (half) would be 68 million votes.



^ FIGURE 5c. I am projecting 126 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the weekly tracking of the total popular vote percentages, and compares them to the final percentages received by past Democratic candidates. The scale is 0 to 100%, with a majority being 50%.



^ FIGURE 5d. This graph from FiveThirtyEight.com shows a correlation between a candidate’s lead in the popular vote and that candidate’s probability of winning the electoral vote and the election, if the election were held today.




6. National Polls

The national daily tracking polls are a good indicator of the projected popular vote, and there is a correlation between the lead in popular vote and the probability of winning the electoral vote. A three-point lead in a national poll would correlate to a 97% probability of winning the electoral vote, according to FiveThirtyEight.com.

Gallup’s daily tracking average for Obama drops one percentage point to 50% this week, while Rasmussen’s daily tracking average for Obama falls two percentage points to 50%. Meanwhile, DailyKos & Research 2000’s daily tracking average for Obama decreases two percentage points to 50% and the Diageo/Hotline daily tracking average for Obama drops one percentage point to 49%. The Real Clear Politics Average this week is 49.6% for Obama, which is a decrease of 0.3% from last week. Obama is now leading McCain in Gallup by 4%, leading by 5% in Rasmussen, leading by 7% in Research 2000, leading by 7% in Hotline and leading by 6.5% in RCP.

The Daily Trackers showed Obama leading by 8.3% last week as a whole, but his lead falls on average to 5.9% in the Daily Trackers this week. That’s a 2.4% drop in one week. In the Big 12 National Monthly Polls, Obama’s lead grew from 5.1% last week to 7.8% this week on average. Looking at all national polling together, Obama went from leading by 6.1% overall last week to leading by 7.2% overall this week, a jump of 1.1%.



^ FIGURE 6a. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.



^ FIGURE 6b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.



^ FIGURE 6c. The national daily tracking polls are indicators of the potential popular vote lead for a candidate. This graph compares the trend lines of Obama’s lead in the national daily tracking polls and averages with my projected trend line of Obama’s lead in the popular vote. The red line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Gallup Daily Tracking polls. The purple line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Rasmussen Daily Tracking polls (with leaners). The blue line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Real Clear Politics’ aggregate state poll average. The dark green line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from my daily projection of each candidate’s popular vote, based on state polls and projected votes on election day in each state. The light green line shows my actual daily tracking of Obama’s popular vote lead over McCain. Taking all these daily tracking items together, we can see a true range of Obama’s lead over McCain over time and a possible trend for the future of this race.




7. Obama’s Seventeen

Overall trading for the 17 states that the Obama Campaign is targeting this year rose 79.20 points to 1152.70 this week, an increase of 4.7%. This is above the majority mark of 850.00. All states gained ground this week except for Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio.

Figure 7c below shows how all 17 states are polling together as a group over time. Barack Obama’s trend line is right at 50% in that graph, while John McCain’s trend line is holding at 43%.



^ FIGURE 7a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.



^ FIGURE 7b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.



^ FIGURE 7c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.




8. Trading and the Wigand Electoral Average

Obama’s Intrade shares closed at 83.3, up from 77.3 last week. His shares on Rasmussen Markets rose from 77.3 to 83.6 this week. Our Wigand Electoral Average held steady at 63.20 this week for Obama, as North Dakota and West Virginia remained in Obama’s territory.

Overall trading for our 12 swing states in the Wigand Electoral Average jumps 27.40 this week to 777.40 for Obama, well above the majority mark of 600.00. The only states losing ground this week are Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, North Carolina and Ohio. Obama is leading McCain overall in our 12 swing states by a margin of 65.8% to 34.2%. This is up 2.8 percentage points from last week for Obama.



^ FIGURE 8a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 8b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). The scale is 0 to 1200, with 600 being a majority. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 8c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 8d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.




9. This Week’s State Polls (Detail)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)



^ Probability of winning a state, found by cross-referencing a
candidate’s percentage lead with the poll’s margin of error.


Alaska Obama 38, McCain 57 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/16 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
California Obama 56, McCain 40 (Rasmussen, 10/9, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
California Obama 59, McCain 35 (Survey USA, 10/16 +/- 4.0, 615 LV)
Colorado Obama 52, McCain 42 (Public Policy Polling, 10/10, +/- 2.7, 1331 LV)
Colorado Obama 47, McCain 43 (Suffolk University, 10/11 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Colorado Obama 52, McCain 43 (Quinnipiac, 10/12 +/- 3.0, 1088 LV)
Colorado Obama 51, McCain 47 (CNN/Time, 10/14 +/- 3.5, 762 LV)
Colorado Obama 52, McCain 45 (Rasmussen, 10/16 +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Connecticut Obama 56, McCain 39 (Rasmussen, 10/14 +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Delaware Obama 56, McCain 41 (Rasmussen, 10/10 +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Florida Obama 51, McCain 46, Barr 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/12 +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Florida Obama 48, McCain 44 (Insider Advantage, 10/13 +/- 3.8, 612 LV)
Florida Obama 47, McCain 42 (Datamar Inc, 10/13 +/- 2.7, 1328 RV)
Florida Obama 47, McCain 43 (Hamilton, 10/13 +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Florida Obama 51, McCain 46 (CNN/Time, 10/14 +/- 3.5, 765 LV)
Florida Obama 49, McCain 45 (Research 2000, 10/15 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Florida Obama 47, McCain 49 (Survey USA, 10/16 +/- 4.3, 553 LV)
Georgia Obama 43, McCain 51 (Survey USA, 10/12 +/- 4.3, 547 LV)
Georgia Obama 45, McCain 53 (CNN/Time, 10/14 +/- 3.5, 718 LV)
Georgia Obama 43, McCain 49 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/15 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Illinois Obama 56, McCain 39 (Rasmussen, 10/13 +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Kansas Obama 41, McCain 54 (Rasmussen, 10/13 +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Maine Obama 55, McCain 38 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/15 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Massachusetts Obama 62, McCain 34 (Rasmussen, 10/13 +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Massachusetts Obama 59, McCain 35 (Survey USA, 10/14 +/- 3.9, 624 LV)
Michigan Obama 54, McCain 38 (Quinnipiac, 10/12 +/- 3.0, 1043 LV)
Minnesota Obama 51, McCain 40 (Quinnipiac, 10/12 +/- 3.1, 1019 LV)
Mississippi Obama 40, McCain 50 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/15 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Missouri Obama 51, McCain 43 (Survey USA, 10/12 +/- 4.3, 546 LV)
Missouri Obama 50, McCain 47, Nader 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/12 +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Missouri Obama 48, McCain 46 (Public Policy Polling, 10/12 +/- 3.1, 1009 LV)
Missouri Obama 48, McCain 49 (CNN/Time, 10/14 +/- 3.5, 763 LV)
Missouri Obama 52, McCain 46 (Rasmussen, 10/15 +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Nevada Obama 47, McCain 45 (Mason-Dixon, 10/9, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Nevada Obama 49, McCain 46 (Insider Advantage, 10/13 +/- 4.0, 506 LV)
Nevada Obama 50, McCain 45 (Rasmussen, 10/16 +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
New Jersey Obama 55, McCain 40 (Survey USA, 10/12 +/- 4.2, 551 LV)
New Mexico Obama 52, McCain 45 (Survey USA, 10/13 +/- 4.2, 568 LV)
New Mexico Obama 55, McCain 42 (Rasmussen, 10/13 +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
New York Obama 64, McCain 31 (Survey USA, 10/12 +/- 4.1, 547 LV)
New York Obama 57, McCain 37 (Rasmussen, 10/14 +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
North Carolina Obama 48, McCain 48, Barr 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/12 +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
North Carolina Obama 49, McCain 46 (Public Policy Polling, 10/12 +/- 2.8, 1196 LV)
North Carolina Obama 48, McCain 46 (Insider Advantage, 10/13 +/- 5.0, 474 LV)
North Carolina Obama 46, McCain 44 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/15 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
North Dakota Obama 45, McCain 43 (MN State U Moorhead, 10/8, +/- 4.0, 606 LV)
North Dakota Obama 45, McCain 45 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/15 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Ohio Obama 49, McCain 45 (Marist College, 10/8 +/- 3.5, 771 LV)
Ohio Obama 49, McCain 47, Nader 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/12 +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Ohio Obama 50, McCain 45 (Survey USA, 10/13 +/- 4.2, 575 LV)
Ohio Obama 49, McCain 49 (Rasmussen, 10/14 +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Oklahoma Obama 31.9, McCain 63.0 (TvPoll.com, 10/11 +/- 3.5, 813 LV)
Oregon Obama 57, McCain 40 (Survey USA, 10/12 +/- 4.1, 584 LV)
Oregon Obama 54, McCain 41 (Rasmussen, 10/14 +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Oregon Obama 53, McCain 38 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/15 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 53, McCain 41 (Marist College, 10/8 +/- 3.5, 757 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 51, McCain 39 (Muhlenberg College, 10/11, +/- 4.0, 602 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 55, McCain 40 (Survey USA, 10/13 +/- 4.4, 516 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 51, McCain 38 (Muhlenberg College, 10/13 +/- 4.0, 602 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 52, McCain 38 (Morning Call, 10/14 +/- 4.0, 612 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 53, McCain 37 (Muhlenberg College, 10/15 +/- 4.0, 595 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 53, McCain 39 (Morning Call, 10/16 +/- 4.0, 602 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 52, McCain 39 (Muhlenberg College, 10/17 +/- 4.0, 593 LV)
South Carolina Obama 41, McCain 55 (Survey USA, 10/13 +/- 4.2, 561 LV)
Texas Obama 40, McCain 52 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/15 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Virginia Obama 50, McCain 47, Barr 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 10/12 +/- 3.0, 1000 LV)
Virginia Obama 53, McCain 43 (CNN/Time, 10/14 +/- 3.5, 698 LV)
Virginia Obama 53.2, McCain 46.8 (Christopher Newport Univ, 10/14 +/- 4.4, 500 LV)
Washington Obama 56, McCain 40 (Survey USA, 10/13 +/- 4.3, 544 LV)
West Virginia Obama 47, McCain 49 (Insider Advantage, 10/13 +/- 4.0, 522 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 54, McCain 37 (Quinnipiac, 10/12 +/- 2.8, 1201 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 51.4, McCain 36.3 (U of WI Milwaukee, 10/12 +/- 5.0, 391 LV)
Wyoming Obama 35, McCain 58 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/16 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)




10. Probabilities and Potentials

The difference between each candidate’s Potential Electoral Votes Advantage provides a keen insight into how they are doing against each other nationwide. Obama’s potential advantage is 71.2%, while McCain’s potential advantage is 45.9%. The difference in potential advantages is Obama +25.3% (down from +28.1% last week). McCain’s potential advantage rose by 3.3 percentage points this week, while Obama’s potential advantage rose by 0.6 percentage points.

At this point in 2004, Kerry’s potential advantage was 66.0% and Bush’s potential advantage was 57.6%. Kerry led Bush by 8.4% in potential advantages four years ago, compared to Obama’s +25.3% lead in potential advantages now.


Highly Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 254 … (47.2%)
McCain – 137 … (25.5%)

Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 291 … (54.1%)
McCain – 155 … (28.8%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 383 … (71.2%)
McCain – 155 … (28.8%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 291 … (54.1%)
McCain – 247 … (45.9%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 401 … (74.5%)
McCain – 137 … (25.5%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 254 … (47.2%)
McCain – 284 … (52.8%)


“Highly Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling at >10% (Strong states only). “Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling beyond the margin of error (Strong and Weak states).

“Potential” electoral votes are the same as probable states, but then we add the states polling within the margin of error to give one candidate an advantage. In this scenario, one candidate takes the states where they are polling strong and weak, and also takes all the margin-of-error states.

“Blowout” electoral votes would give one candidate only their strong states (>10%) and the other candidate would win all the other states. An example would be if Obama were to win in all his base states, all the swing states, and all the states where McCain was polling weak.




11. Sources and Links

THE MATH:
Read Last Week’s Edition
Monday’s Daily Widget
Tuesday’s Daily Widget
Wednesday’s Daily Widget
Thursday’s Daily Widget
Friday’s Daily Widget

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
Electionprojection.com
3 Blue Dudes


As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything! Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du


.

Those are some amazing swings around and since the conventions.

I can't help but feel that these numbers will tighten -- at least a little -- as we approach election day.

Skinner's servers would blow up again if I had more graphics :7

I'd be surprised if the numbers didn't tighten in the next two weeks.

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

Seriously. :)

Numbers are looking good lately.

I would need a list of things to do while it loads, lol

1. Mow the lawn
2. Paint a portrait
3. Solve the world's economic woes
etc.

:donut: Good morning, Prag! :hi:

But I'm definitely saving it for later. Great summary and I thank you for your hard work in putting it together!

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

:hi: :bounce:

(all four of them!)

:hi: :hi: for the twinkies

:bounce: for Lil Math Dude

:donut: for you ... Good morning! :hi:

i remember it was blue on the outside and red in the middle. it is so wonderful to see this change. i don't agree with the tightening. folks didn't like mccain's appearance and more repubs are running away from him. with powell's alleged endorsement i think the gap is going to widen. indiana, iowa, nc, wv omg. it is happening phrig and thanks for putting it into living color.

(well, almost)

I hope Colin Powell does endorse Obama, and I hope he doesn't get dragged through the mud for it by republicans. Powell needs to make up for past mistakes, and he could speak to Obama's readiness to lead on foreign policy. That could shift a percentage point or two to Obama :)

:donut: Good morning, psychmommy! :hi:

Fabulous numbers and graphs, but do you think 108 EV is enough margin?

As for Colin Powell, I wouldn't be surprised if Rove didn't send him out to endorse with the hope that Powell would jinx it for Obama, just as he has for everything else he's done.

I don't think it will work, though. This is unstoppable. 100% probability! What could be better? Next week, I'm expecting 110%!

100% probability of winning is what we get when our candidate is winning 291 electoral votes beyond the margin of error. McCain is holding a pair of deuces to Obama's full house :7

:donut: Good morning, Demeter! :hi: (and thanks for the 5th rec!)

assumes that Texas doesn't also drop for Obama - that would be hugh!

In 2000, Nader only pulled 50% of what he had been polling in July. I wonder--many of the Barr people probably are truly disaffected Republicans, but, after 2000 and 2004, can anyone who really supports what Nader used to stand for afford to vote for him? I do worry that some folks will think the race is such a blowout that a Nader vote becomes safe for them.

I think both should probably wind up getting 1% of the popular vote each, but I'm probably wrong.