Gary Kamiya: The Obama effect

The Obama effect

Iraq's approval of the security pact shows that Obama's diplomatic approach is already paying dividends. Now, he must talk to Iran.

By Gary Kamiya


Nov. 18, 2008 | Barack Obama isn't even president yet, but he has already helped bring the Iraq war closer to an end.

On Sunday, the Iraqi cabinet voted overwhelmingly to approve a security agreement calling for the withdrawal of all U.S. forces by the end of 2011. The agreement, which the U.S. has been negotiating with Iraq for almost a year, could still be rejected by the Iraqi parliament, but it has a good chance of passing.

This is a momentous event. If the pact is approved, it would set in motion the end of America's long and calamitous Iraq adventure. And it also clearly demonstrates why Obama's diplomatic, realistic approach to the Middle East is infinitely more effective than the Bush administration's hard-line, ideological one.

One of the major stumbling blocks to the agreement has been Iran. Iran wields great influence with Iraq's Shiite-dominated government. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's ISCI party, formed in Iran by exiled Shiite Iraqis, maintains close ties to Iran. As long as Iran thought that the U.S. would continue its threatening, militaristic stance toward it, it was determined to undermine any agreement. This made perfect sense: Why would Iran encourage a U.S.-Iraq rapprochement if it left the U.S. in a position to use Iraq as a base to attack it?

Bush's hard-line Iran policy thus directly contradicted his Iraq policy. By threatening Iran, he gave it every reason to make trouble in Iraq. His hawkish stance toward Iran simply ignored the unpleasant reality that Iran has both enormous influence over Iraq's government and legitimate security concerns over what happens in its neighboring state. It also ignored the fact that Iran and the U.S. actually have a shared interest in a stable Iraq. And by refusing to engage in diplomacy with the charter member of the "Axis of Evil," he prevented the U.S. from trying to work out an agreement with Tehran that would maximize Iraq's stability while U.S. forces leave.


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http://www.salon.com/opinion/kamiya/2008/11/18/obama_iran/