More about the Colorad Senate (and House) races from the WSJ

This is not a dupe.


Colorado Races To Shift Map For Democrats

Republican Senator's Retirement May Tip Senate Control, Reverberate to Key Contests

When Republican Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell decided last month not to run for re-election in Colorado, the ground shifted in the battle for Senate control. A seat that had seemed out of Democrats' grasp looks like one of the party's best prospects for November, with polls showing the Democratic candidate, Attorney General Ken Salazar leading. A Democratic Senate majority suddenly is a genuine possibility.

But the ripple effect may not stop there. Democratic officials say Mr. Salazar's popularity could help Democratic candidates in two competitive House districts that are key to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi's hopes of gaining ground against the Republicans. One of those candidates is state Rep. John Salazar, the attorney general's brother.

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Six months ago, even Democrats predicted that the Republicans' 51-to-48 Senate advantage (Sen. Jim Jeffords of Vermont is an independent) could grow in November by a margin of four or five seats. More Democratic incumbents than Republicans face voters in 2004, and several Democrats are retiring in Southern states where the Republican Party is increasingly dominant. Now, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist says, expectations have been tempered, and he predicts Republicans could pick up just one seat. Some top Democrats privately concur, and say their chances of reclaiming the Senate stand at about 50% -- compared with about 25% last fall.

The twist is how strongly Democratic candidates are polling in states where Republican incumbents are retiring or vulnerable, including Colorado, Oklahoma, Illinois and Alaska. Republicans, meanwhile, have failed to mount strong challenges against Democratic incumbents who had been considered beatable, such as Sens. Harry Reid of Nevada, Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas and Byron Dorgan of North Dakota.

Nor do Republicans have a clean shot in the South, the nation's most conservative region. Five Democratic incumbents are retiring there, and Republicans had been counting on big gains. But Jennifer Duffy, an analyst for the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan newsletter that tracks Congressional elections, says Democrats have gone far to level the playing field by recruiting strong candidates and avoiding costly primary fights.


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Write to Shailagh Murray at shailagh.murray@wsj.com

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http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB108172290871179847,00.html