NYT: Follow the Leader - Josh Micah Marshall

Kudos to Josh (http://talkingpointsmemo.com)!

April 23, 2004
OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR
Follow the Leader
By JOSHUA MICAH MARSHALL

WASHINGTON

In this year's presidential campaign, no wisdom is more conventional than the assumption that George W. Bush's re-election effort will succeed or fail along with the American mission in Iraq. If Iraq collapses, the reasoning goes, the Bush presidency will soon follow. And yet here was the president gaining ground, in several polls released this week, in the face of what were certainly the worst three weeks in Iraq since the United States deposed Saddam Hussein a year ago.

The actual shift in the numbers was small — only a matter of a few percentage points, just about the margin of error in the polls. And it might be explained by $50 million worth of President Bush's TV ads or Mr. Kerry's relative absence from the nightly news. But the new numbers do suggest a paradoxical question: could escalating national security crises be bolstering the president's support — even if they are crises of his own making?

More: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/23/opinion/23MARS.html

If posts like this one are upsetting, then visit www.dailykos.com on a regular basis for expert and highly detailed analysis of what's really taking place. Below is an excerpt from April 20. (Note to DU administrator- Kos states on his site "steal what you need," so it's alright to run this.)

Texas Editor

- - -

Putting polls in perspective

by kos
dailykos.com

Tue Apr 20th, 2004 at 11:20:44 EDT

The reaction to polls around these parts sometimes verges on the absurd. Given that we are over six months away from election day, all polls give us are an imperfect snapshot of how things currently stand.

Yesterday we got these two new polls:

Gallup Poll. 4/16-18. MoE 4%. (4/5-8 results)

Bush 51 (48)
Kerry 46 (45)
Nader 2 (4)
Neither 2 (4)
ABC/WP Poll. 4/15-18. (3/4-7 results)
Bush 48 (44)
Kerry 43 (48)

So yeah, on first blush, these aren't good results. But the same people who thought Kerry had it in the bag when he was up in the polls now think the sky is falling. Chicken Little is alive and well around these parts.

Look, first of all, it's early. And not only is it early, but our national and international situation is extremely volatile. A better gauge of that national mood is the Rasmussen presidential tracking poll, which shows the volatility of the situation in stark contrast.

But even with all that volatility, the numbers are still fairly consistent. In the last month, Rasmussen has had Bush between 48 and 42. And he has had Kerry between 48 and 43. That is not a wide spread, and shows that much of the float at this point is not necessarily shifts in popular opinion, but statistical float and the movement of very soft, very unfocused voters. (It's early, remember?)

In addition, Bush has been under 50 percent in the vast majority of polls. The Gallup Poll has Bush over 50, but also has no undecideds. They pushed the leaners strong. And while that type of polling make sense the week before the election, it's less salient a full six months plus before voters hit the booths.

Finally, remember that Bush has spent a full 50 percent of his advertising pummeling Kerry. That is $40 million of virtually uncontested ads. Sure, we've had 527 ads up, but none of those have talked about Kerry the candidate. They're not allowed to do that. So we've had a barrage of Bush ads pummeling Kerry with nary a response defending him.

Did I mention it's early? Kerry has been using this time to raise money, and has done a great job of it. The time will come to counterattack, and his numbers will improve. Bush's best shot was to take Kerry out early by driving his negatives through the roof. Well, Kerry's negatives have taken a hit, but nowhere near what Bush needed for the knockout blow. Kerry took $40 million in Bush attack ads and came out of it surprisingly strong. And our guy will have his own $40-80 million to counterattack.

So the sky is not falling. Sure, lots of us would rather see Kerry in the leads, but the only poll that really matters is November. And if Kerry has shown one thing in his many years in politics, it's that he knows how to close. So long as Bush is consistently under 50 percent (the incumbent's danger zone) there's no reason to panic.

I don't want anything encouraging fools to feel it's safe enough to vote Nader.

And fools is a mild term for how I feel about Nader voters. Very, very mild.

but how can Kerry be heard.

The Republicans have set up the debate for the election. They can scream and abuse Kerry through the airwaves and in print and guess what? People pay attention.

So what Marshall is saying is Kerry has to stop pointing out Bush's failure and presnt a plan? I thought Kerry has done that over and over again.

What people are paying attention to is what's happening to them. Bought gas or milk lately?

Lost benefits or a job?

The more Bush says it's good and we see it's bad.......

TV was crowing how great the economy is going. HUH? Money in CEO pockets is not money in our pockets. Turns out, a CEO only has one vote.