The Bush Administration had delusions of grandeur when it came to middle east policy. They were going to remake the area in the image of the United States, a Jeffersonian democracy.
I think we need to get back to the mission of neutralizing the Taliban so they can no longer create a safe haven for terrorists. The militant Taliban and their al-Qaeda allies seeks to establish a Caliphate throughout Central Asia and beyond. The more moderate Taliban just want to impose their religious authority over Afghanistan. Because of corruption, the Karzai regime’s legitimacy outside of Kabul is minimal. This makes it difficult to establish a moderate Islamic regime with centralised authority.
The real problem is that there is a nominal state, "Pashtunistan," populated by the powerful ethnic tribe that spills into Pakistan from Afghanistan and compromises 42 million people -- Pashtuns make up 42 percent of the population of Afghanistan and 15 percent in Pakistan. They support and, indeed, largely make up the Taliban. Afghanistan was born as a Pashtun nation in the early 18th century but the Pashtuns have been relegated to second class status by Tajiks and other tribes who led the resistance to the Taliban.
Pashtun ethnic grievances may be ignored but the cost in instability in this region, IMHO, will be immense. All politics is local.
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/world/s_636392.html