Toward The Petro-Apocalypse - Le Monde

In a few years, the global production of conventional oil will fall, while the global demand continues to rise. The resulting shock of this structural oil famine is inevitable, so great are the dependency of our economies on cheap oil and, related to the first, our inability to wean ourselves from this dependency in a short period of time.

We can hope to soften the shock, but only if its imminence immediately becomes the unique reference point for a general mobilization of our societies, with, as a consequence, drastic consequences in every sector. The alternative is chaos. This prospect is based on the work of the American geologist King Hubbert, who predicted in 1956 the peak in US domestic production of oil in 1970. This occurred exactly as predicted. Transposing Hubbert's approach today to other countries has given similar predictive results: at present, the production of every giant oilfield -- and only the giant ones matter -- is in decline, except in the "black triangle" of Iraq-Iran-Saudi Arabia.

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More than thirty years of worrying about oil has not opened the eyes of American and European leaders concerning the energy crisis that is looming just before us. Despite what René Dumont and the ecologists were saying from the 1974 presidential campaign on, the governments of industrialized countries have continued and continue to believe in almost inexhaustible cheap oil -- to the detriment of the climate and human health, both perturbed by greenhouse gas emissions -- instead of organizing a reduction in their economies' reliance on hydrocarbons. However, the oil shock that promises to strike before the end of the decade is not like the ones that preceded it. What is at stake this time is not geopolitical, but geological. In 1973 and 1979, the shortage had a political origin in OPEC's decision. Then the supply was restored.

Today, it is the wells themselves that are declining. Even if the United States succeeded in imposing its hegemony on all the oilfields in the world (outside of Russia), their army and their technology will not be able to prevail against the coming depletion of conventional oil. In any case, there is not enough time to replace a fluid so cheap to produce, so rich in energy, so easy to use, store, and transport, with so many uses (domestic, industrial, fuel, raw material...), in order to reinvest $100 billion in another source of abundance that doesn't exist. Natural gas? It does not have the just-named qualities of oil and will reach its global production peak in around 2020 -- about ten years after the other peak. The only viable path is immediate oil sobriety organized through an international agreement along the lines I have sketched out above, authorizing a prompt weaning from our addiction to black gold."

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http://www.evworld.com/view.cfm?section=communique&newsid=5637

An excellent article. :kick:

Association for the Study of Peak Oil.
http://www.peakoil.net/Default.htm

In the US at least we still have large reserves of coal to beat the crunch. Using coal instead of gas to run power plants could conceivably provide another alternative fuel to gasoline. In some areas natural gas filling stations for cars are already available. Ford was/is manufacturing cars that run off natural gas.

If energy costs really explode look for utilities to again build nuclear power plants. With the current increase in coal prices, nuclear power is clearly less expensive. At some point utility execs could view the decision as a no-brainer.

Europe will be hit much harder unless Russia can ramp up production enough to support their economies. The much higher energy costs along with the current challenges to European societies will further accelerate population losses.

A lot of environmental progress could be lost in this country even if new coal fired power plants have upgraded pollution treatment equipment since the environmental impacts of coal extraction will be much greater.

That's why, in purely economic terms, "blood for oil" wars are insane. They're only stop-gap measures. Some day soon the planet will be sucked dry. Can it be that some truths are so obvious that people are blind to them: The billions of dollars we've spent bitch-slapping Saddam Hussein should have been spent investing in alternative fuel sources.