Trouble in GOP Paradise for Bush

The approval rating of President George W. Bush is now at the lowest point of his presidency. Bush has an anemic 42% approval rating right now, much lower than Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton at this point in their presidency. In fact, Bush’s approval rating at this juncture in his term is similar to Presidents Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush, who all lost re-election campaigns.

Bush is suffering because of the problems in Iraq. Over the past few months, casualties have increased dramatically. In addition, there have been mounting questions about the operation in Iraq with concerns about the transfer of power to Iraq authorities on June 30, 2004. With the prisoner abuse scandal making even more people question the conduct of the Bush administration, good news on the economic front has been overshadowed.

In fact, in the last two months, economic growth and employment numbers have skyrocketed bolstering claims from the President that his tax cuts would have a beneficial impact on the economy. Unfortunately for Bush, voters are not focusing on the good economic news right now. If voters are concentrating on an economic issue it is the rapidly rising gasoline prices. Now, Americans are facing historically high prices of over $2.00 per gallon for gasoline. These high gas prices are another problem for President Bush, especially with millions of Americans vacationing this summer and facing increasing costs for travel.

In light of the troubling developments in Iraq and at the pump, and with the crumbling poll numbers, the political advisers for President Bush have to be concerned. His re-election is now very suspect and the respected pollster John Zogby has stated that the “election is John Kerry’s to lose.” To make matters worse, Bush is even having trouble holding his Republican base. In a recent Zogby poll, almost 20% of Republicans are not solidly behind the President’s re-election. Bush is having plenty of difficulty garnering Independent and Democratic voters so motivating the GOP base is crucial for the President to win in November. Who are these Republicans questioning a Bush second term?

http://interactive.zogby.com/s/i.cfm?ID=233813&pass=mkb8cdcgov

They won't win with McCain or Frist at the top of the ticket, but they may position themselves for a much better comeback in '08.

But they won't do it. Being the Stupid Party has consequences ....

I found this on the site - doesn't it call all telephone based polls into question?

With a large and growing number of people, especially those under 35, opting out of land lines and for cell phones, our telephone surveys now pretty much violate the principle of pure probability. Thus, for that reason and more, we need to eventually move away from pure reliance on the telephone for survey work.

http://interactive.zogby.com/s/i.cfm?ID=233813&pass=mkb8cdcgov

I participate on line.