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Time for the Pundits to Take a Deep Breath -- Why Democrats Will Not Be Routed In November

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depakid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-08-10 08:51 PM
Original message
Time for the Pundits to Take a Deep Breath -- Why Democrats Will Not Be Routed In November
Two years ago today, just two months before the 2008 Election, John McCain led Barack Obama for president in the compilation of national polls assembled by Pollster.com. The Democratic polling project at Democracy Corps had McCain up by two points. As everyone knows, on Election Day Obama beat McCain 53% to 46%. A lot can change in 56 days.

Time for the pundits and prognosticators to take a deep breath. Despite all of their dire predictions of Democratic demise, the Republicans have not yet seized control of either chamber and I, for one, predict that they won't any time soon.

Democrats will certainly take losses in the coming Midterms. But the odds are good that they will emerge from the elections with working majorities in both houses.

No one doubts that pulling the economy out of the massive ditch into which it careened under George Bush has, and continues to be, a Herculean task. It is, of course, a task that has been made much more difficult by the virtually unified opposition of Republicans to Democratic initiatives to energize the economy. Two years of economic pain have made voters unhappy.

And this difficulty is compounded by the natural tendency of voters to turn out Members of Congress from the President's party in the first Mid-term after his inauguration.

However, six major factors will work to limit Democratic losses.

More: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-creamer/time-for-the-pundits-to-t_b_708721.html

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TlalocW Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-08-10 09:41 PM
Response to Original message
1. The problem is...
(and I believe the democrats will keep both houses) that the media will still go apeshit over ANY republican gains (hell, if democrats gained seats in both houses, the meme would be republicans were strong enough to keep democrats from getting more seats than what they did), and unfortunately, the gains and media reaction will cow timid democrats.

TlalocW
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applegrove Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Sep-08-10 11:24 PM
Response to Original message
2. I agree. Obama is just getting started while the GOP have been in perpetual campaign mode for the
last 10 years. I'm not surprised Obama was a bit behind this august. He hadn't said anything at that point. Now he speaks. Look Out!
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RussBLib Donating Member (292 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-09-10 04:33 PM
Response to Original message
3. I predict Dems will gain seats in both the House and Senate
The Dems will get over that magic 60# in the Senate and increase their House margin by at least 10 more seats. Every teabagger will go down to defeat.

That is, IF the elections are on the up-and-up.
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bemildred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-09-10 06:01 PM
Response to Original message
4. Election polls are not intended to keep you well-informed.
They are propaganda plain and simple, and well paid for it.
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