In all the comparisons between the Great Recession of the past three years and the Great Depression of the 1930s, one comforting thought for policymakers has been that there has been no return to tit-for-tat protectionism, which saw one country after another use high tariffs in an attempt to cut the dole queues.
Yet the commitment of governments to keep markets open was based on the belief that recovery would be swift and sustained. If, as many now suspect, the global economy is stuck in a low-growth, high-unemployment rut, the pressures for protectionism will grow.
The former chancellor, Ken Clarke, aptly summed up the downbeat mood when he said in yesterday's Observer that it was hard to be "sunnily optimistic" about the west's economic prospects. Adam Posen, a member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee, made a similar point last week in a speech last week advocating more quantitative easing.
Despite a colossal stimulus, the recovery has been short-lived and, by historic standards, feeble. The traditional tools – cutting interest rates and spending more public money – were not enough, so have had to be supplemented by the creation of electronic money. In both the US and the UK, policymakers are actively canvassing the idea that more QE will be required, even though they well understand its drawbacks and limitations.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/oct/04/economic-failure-could-lead-to-protectionism