Another stinging blow for Libya

July 30, 2011

By Victor Kotsev

The killing of Libyan rebel military commander General Abdel Fattah Younes could lead to a violent split inside anti-government forces and comes as a major rebel offensive is failing to produce significant gains prior to the onset of the holy Muslim month of Ramadan in August when extremely hot weather and all-day fasts makes warfare very difficult and slow.

The death of the general, whose body along with those of two senior aides was reportedly found badly burnt on Thursday, brings into focus a complex and extensive web of power relationships and rivalries spanning both sides of the conflict. This is evidence of just how fluid the situation in Libya is, with multiple layers of loyalties that can shift in any given moment.

The specter of a North Atlantic Treaty Alliance (NATO) ground invasion of Libya, once frightfully close, has receded. The Western bravado of just a month ago - when British, among other officials, were preparing detailed plans of Libya's post-Muammar Gaddafi future - <1> has largely disappeared, challenged by a combination of events on the ground, the lack of political will by member states to send troops, and loud protests from Russia, China and other significant international players.

As the latest round of negotiations between Gaddafi, NATO and the rebels falter, the Libyan civil war is increasingly turning into a conflict over natural resources. This means, in part, that both sides are digging in for a protracted war. Moreover, it lends support to fears that a factitious civil war motivated by greed will ensue, like in so many other parts of Africa.

remainder: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MG30Ak02.html