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We saved $647 million in interest costs (over the life of the securities) AFTER S&P's downgrade.

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Bill USA Donating Member (628 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-11 05:16 PM
Original message
We saved $647 million in interest costs (over the life of the securities) AFTER S&P's downgrade.
Edited on Thu Aug-11-11 05:17 PM by Bill USA

Many have observed S&P's downgrade of U.S. debt, just solidifies the rating agency's record of incompetence (after the AAA ratings of trillions of dollars in home mortgages that were later revised to 'junk' status).

The latest Treasuries auction removes all doubt as to S&P's competence. U.S. Treasuries went UP in value (bringing down their yields) showing investors (from around the world) don't agree with S&P's assessment.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-11/treasury-bond-auctions-save-u-s-government-647-million-after-downgrade.html

The U.S. auctioned $72 billion of notes and bonds this week at the lowest average yield for a refunding on record, saving taxpayers $647 million in interest payments during the life of the securities less than a week after Standard & Poor’s removed the nation’s AAA rating.

The Treasury Department paid an average yield of 2.13 percent on the three-, 10- and 30-year securities, less than the previous refunding auctions in May of 3 percent and below the former record of 2.59 percent in February 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The government began selling 30-year bonds on a regular schedule in 1977 as part of its so-called quarterly refunding.

Results of this week’s auctions show investors are repudiating S&P’s decision to lower its assessment of the U.S.’s creditworthiness to AA+, and are instead scooping up the debt on signs the economy and inflation are slowing and the near-zero chance the government will default. Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings have affirmed their AAA grades.

“The collective investment community made their statement,” said Kevin Flanagan, a Purchase, a New York-based fixed-income strategist for Morgan Stanley Smith Barney. “That underscores what global investors think about the S&P action and what they feel is still the investment of choice in times of duress, and that’s U.S. Treasuries.”
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The Treasury should refinance (retire former issues of U.S. bonds not yet matured) all the outstanding debt which is ALL out there at a higher rates than we are now paying (2.13%). We would save BILLIONS if all outstanding debt (10 to 30 yr maturity) was retired and refinanced.

Total interest charges on our total public debt for 10 months of fiscal 2011 is: http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/ir/ir_expense.htm">$412,517,504,466.06
Extrapolating that figure to a full year, you come to about $495 billion.
the total public debt is: http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/histdebt/histdebt_histo5.htm">13,561,623,030,891.79

So the average interest expense on that debt is: 3.7% ($495 Bil/$1,3561 Bil).
We can finance our debt @ 2.13% now, which is 1.5% cheaper than the average interest cost of outstanding U.S. debt.
1.5% applied to $13.5 Trillion comes to about $206 BILLION.... that's how much savings we would gain PER YEAR, if we refinanced the public debt at today's rates.

Now, we can't refinance $13 trillion, in three or six months. The prices paid, for our bonds and T-Bills, would drop and we would be paying more than 2.13%. But if we refinanced over a several years that would limit down-ward pressure on the prices we would get on our debt.

The time for refinancing is good now, as many investors are beginning to worry about the reliability of sovereign debt from European countries.


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FBaggins Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-11 06:08 PM
Response to Original message
1. Drive the Dow down to 5,000 and we'll save billions more in interest
Of course... We lose far more in tax revenue at the same time (and millions of jobs).
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Bill USA Donating Member (628 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-11 06:14 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. I think you missed a turn somewhere. Here's a link I think you would enjoy:
Edited on Thu Aug-11-11 06:19 PM by Bill USA
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Fearless Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-11 08:03 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. Very true.
If investors flee the market to treasury notes, it will drive the interest down, but it will destroy a lot of capital and evaporate many jobs, thus lowering revenue.

:banghead:
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Bill USA Donating Member (628 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-13-11 04:33 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. companies sitting on $2 trillion in cash and cash equivalents. They don't need investors they need
customers.

NO company is going to add workers or expand unless it has enough sales to warrant such moves. Although consumer expenditures were up in July, they aren't enough to encourage employers to add workers.

Investment doesn't drive adding jobs, sales do. http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/hoarding_cash_Yzfk2c8aK1wAPrZCRdEVnJ">U.S. Firms sitting on a $2 Trillion cash hoard

BTW, with $2 Trillion you could hire 13 million people @ $50,000 a year for three years.


Lower interest rates makes it more attractive to borrow money (e.g. for expansion). But no businessman in his right mind is going to expand, or even just add workers, unless he has enough sales to warrant such a move. Of course, with large hoards of cash businesses don't need to even consider borrowing to add people.

Companies have been buying back their stock. This is a sure sign of a sick economy. It means business is so lack-luster that businesses see no reason to expand and have a cash hoard, so it makes sense to buy back your stock. THis has the benefit of supporting the stock price. But it would be better if there were enough sales to make hiring additional workers or to expand, a reasoable action on the part of businesses.

Businesses need buying customers. Until people have some money in hand to spend businesses will see no need to add personnel.

The recent deal Obama had extorted out of him, to preclude a U.S. default, also has huge cuts in Government spending which will contract the economy more. THis doesn't give businesses great hopes that sales are going to improve much. In fact this portends a decline in business activity.
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walerosco Donating Member (449 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-13-11 04:51 PM
Response to Reply #4
8. I see someone is reading right from the
Reich wing school of economics. Lending to govt "destroys capital" and "evaporates jobs". Nice try
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JohnWxy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-11 07:33 PM
Response to Original message
3. good post. recommended. $200 BILLION saved per year, Damn!
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unblock Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-11-11 08:42 PM
Response to Original message
5. only if you look at one part of the equation.
if you look narrowly, only at treasury's direct borrowing costs, then yes, the treasury will save money because they can now borrow at a lower interest rate.

however, the REASON why treasury rates are lower is because the downgrade also meant a downgrade on the economy and a downgrade on thousands of municipal and state bonds as well. because of the fiscal stupidity in washington and sucky economy, the federal government can expect a need to spend MORE money due to guarantees on riskier municipal and state bonds, and as a political reality, more bailouts in terms of state and local aid.

overall, the downgrade (or more accurately, the austerity/debt ceiling deal and the politics surrounding it) will COST the federal government far more than it saves.
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Bill USA Donating Member (628 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-13-11 04:40 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. I am keenly aware of the conditions that lead to interest rates being so low. If I had my druthers
I would rather these conditions did not exist at all. But George W., wasn't taking my calls a few years ago when something could have done to prevent the TRICKLE DOWN DISASTER.

...but, given the situation we are in, I pointed out that with interest rates so low, we could refinance all the public debt and save about $200 Billion per yr on finance costs. Might as well take advantage of low rates while you've got them.

Would I prefer that we didn't have such low rates if it meant we could have a healthy growing economy and we were not in this REPUBLICAN DYSTOPIA??? --- FUCK YES!

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