Germany, France Join Opposition To Attack On Iran Nuclear Program

Published 01:04 15.11.11

It appears that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad can rest easy for now, as voices coming from the European Union and elswhere suggest a military operation is not in the offing. Not only do Syria and China reject such an attack, but on Monday, Germany, France and Turkey added their voices to those objecting to a military option. The United States also does not seem thrilled at the prospect of launching another war in the region.

The European and American plan to impose another dose of sanctions on Iran may be worrisome, but it likely isn't threatening as long as China, Russia and several of the Gulf states continue regular trade relations with Iran.

The effort to impose restrictions on the export of gasoline to Iran, which can only supply 60 percent of its own demand, is unlikely to come to fruition, as some fear the restrictions would only harm the citizenry and not the regime. Furthermore, the efficacy of such a plan remains doubtful. Iran recently declared that it is capable of producing more gasoline; with a strict rationing program it might well be able to overcome the entire shortage. This would not necessarily mean that Iran could successfully supply its demand for gasoline over the long term, but it would certainly be able to significantly reduce its dependence on foreign imports.

The more ambitious aim of obtaining a UN Security Council resolution to impose international sanctions will have to wait, especially given Russia's efforts to promote - together with Iran - a new diplomatic plan that is being dubbed "Step by Step." Under the plan, Iran will begin to respond to the International Atomic Energy Agency's demands. In exchange for every satisfactory response, the international community would gradually roll back the existing sanctions on Iran.

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