IRAQ IN TRANSITION

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IRAQ IN TRANSITION
A new report published by Chatham House
(Download this report here)

There are three possible scenarios for the future of Iraq. The most probable scenario is that Sunni, Shi’a and Kurdish factions will fail to cohere under the transitional governments, leading to fragmentation and civil war, says a new report published by Chatham House.

 

The report ‘Iraq in Transition: Vortex or Catalyst’ claims that the hand over will lead to three likely scenarios:

1.
If the Shi’a, Sunni and Kurd factions fail to adhere to the Iraqi Interim Government (IIG), Iraq could fragment or descend into civil war.

2.
If the transitional government, backed up by a supportive US presence, can assert control, Iraq may well hold together.

3.
A Regional Remake could overtake the other two scenarios if the dynamics unleashed by Shi’a and Kurdish assertiveness trigger repercussions in neighbouring states.



The first scenario is the most likely. Kurdish separatism and Shi’a assertiveness will work against a smooth transition to elections while the Sunni faction continues to engage in resistance. Antipathy to the US presence will grow but in a fragmented, not unified manner, that could threaten civil war. Shi'a Arabs will not settle for a subservient position, Kurds will not relinquish the gains in internal self-government and policing during the 1990s and Sunnis will neither accept a Shi’a-led central government nor a Kurdish autonomy in the north. If the IIG or its successors fail to assert itself as an organisation capable of appealing across Iraq’s societal cleavages, Iraq will fragment.

“Grassroot power is currently in the hands of those groups which assert themselves according to their communal identity… the IIG and the international community have to take new dynamics into account when attempting to weld together a new Iraq.”

The second scenario is one that best represents US and British aspirations.  The IIG will do just enough to ensure Iraq holds together the Shi’a majority, the Sunni minority and the Kurdish leadership.

“A great deal of diplomacy and compromise will be necessary between Iraq’s component groups, the United States (and UK) and the UN…it requires power-sharing, whereby the United States no longer asserts overriding control, but operates in partnership with the transitional governments, the security forces, the UN electoral commission and other relevant bodies”

The third scenario suggests that Iraq emerges from regional isolation and becomes the centre of Sunni, Shi’a and Kurdish geopolitics. A newly assertive Shi’a consciousness, led by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani could trigger a Sunni backlash throughout the Middle East, including the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia with its strategically important oil reserves. Syria exports unwanted nationalist Islamist activities to Iraq and, Iran maintains links with Iraqi Shi’a and Kurdish leaders.  Radical Salafi (Sunni) Islamists fighting the Al Saud encourage tribal elements in the Iraqi resistance.

“Ethnic tensions spills over between Arabs and Kurds in Kirkuk. The Kurdish leadership falls out with other members of the IIG and separates. Kurds from neighbouring countries either flee to Iraqi Kurdistan or try to emulate their assertiveness. Turkey intervenes. This scenario is the most transformative and beyond US or multinational control” says the report.

The briefing paper, which will be launched on Wednesday 1 September also, examines the repercussions for the Middle East, taking into consideration, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, Israel and Turkey. Issues of identity, confessionalism, militancy and governmental legitimacy affect all these states which are closely monitoring developments during Iraq’s transitional period. Militant Islamists active in the Iraq crisis will also be affected whatever the outcome is.

A key message of the report is that should Iraq fragment, a sectarian struggle between the Shi’a majority and Sunni minority is more likely to flare up in the context of a political breakdown. Al Qaeda and other militant Sunni groups will contribute to the polarisation between Sunnis, Shi’a and other religious groups in Iraq.  A fragmented Iraq could provide a breeding ground for new militant factions, both Islamist and non-Islamist.

Notes for editors:
Iraq in Transition: Vortex or Catalyst? is published by Chatham House at 00.01 Wednesday 1 September. Embargoed copies available on request from kburnet@chathamhouse.org.uk

The authors are affiliated to the Middle East Programme at Chatham House

Authors contact details:
Robert Lowe +44 (0) 20 7957 5737

Interview requests:
Robert Lowe +44 (0) 20 7957 5737
 
 
 

there will be peace in Iraq in the next twenty years.

'Chatham House' is better known (though the website says they prefer to be known as 'Chatham House' since yesterday) the Royal Institute of International Affairs. It's the main foreign policy think tank in Britain; while it's independent of the political government, it's still very 'establishment' (as indicated by the 'Royal' in its title).

If they're willing to say the most likely outcome is civil war, things look bad indeed.