http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/29/politics/campaign/29map.htmlSome Swing States Appear to Be Swinging to President
By KATHARINE Q. SEELYE
Published: September 29, 2004
WASHINGTON, Sept. 28 -Days before the presidential debates begin, President Bush appears to be gaining in several swing states he lost in 2000.<snip>
...Polls show Mr. Bush making headway in Iowa and Wisconsin, both of which he lost last time. He was also building leads in Ohio and West Virginia, states he won in 2000....Mr. Kerry led in Maine and was solidifying leads in Michigan and Washington, states that Al Gore won in 2000 but that Mr. Bush is contesting this year. Polls also showed the candidates nearly even in Colorado.
An analysis of state polls by The New York Times showed that the race in the last six days has been most competitive in nine states, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon and Pennsylvania. They have a total of 105 electoral votes.
These polls show that if the election had been held in the last week, Mr. Kerry would have been able to count on 10 states plus the District of Columbia, for a total of 153 electoral votes, and that Mr. Bush would have been able to count on 18 states with 144 electoral votes. Three other states - Maine, Michigan and Washington - were leaning toward Mr. Kerry, and if they vote that way will provide Mr. Kerry an additional 32 electoral votes, for a total of 177.
Ten others - Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin and West Virginia - were leaning toward Mr. Bush and would provide him with an additional 104 electoral votes, for a total of 248.<snip>