Power and Interest News Report (PINR)

http://www.pinr.com
content@pinr.com
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October 09, 2004:

Today's analyst, Jonathan Feiser, is also an intelligence analyst with the U.S. Air Force.

For a past PINR discussing Iraq's potential fragmentation, visit the following article by Dr. Michael A. Weinstein of Purdue University:

''Iraq's Slide Toward Separation''
http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=195

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"Iraq: Finding Legitimacy in Democracy"

Drafted by Jonathan Feiser on October 09, 2004
http://www.pinr.com

In the lead-up to the January elections in Iraq, contending local and international power forces are threatening the validity of the election process. The apparent rush by the United States to initiate the elections will likely cause a less than idealistic response, anticipated by many U.S. officials. Due to Iraq's precarious situation, the most that the elections can hope for are cosmetic changes to Iraq's political situation. At worst, the elections could move many regions of Iraq one step closer to fragmentation.

- Contending Power Forces

A major problem with the January elections is the continued presence of Saddam-era power factions -- i.e. groups based on religion or ethnicity -- that have routinely struggled and conflicted with Iraq's historical leaders. Furthermore, over time such factions have become locally perceived solutions to the repression of the past and chaos of the present. As a political unit, Iraq is in a state of transition that continues to demonstrate characteristics of a weak state.
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- The Kurdish Examples

The northern Kurdish sections articulate a stalwart example of the potential negative consequences of immediate elections in Iraq. Two examples demand attention.
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- Conclusion

These trends illustrate that the occurrence of an election initiated too soon and based predominately on the standards of international pressure is an almost desperate grasp for some semblance of peace. Likewise, the January elections will not portent any change of the patterns and frictions that have become so much a part of the Iraqi state since its birth.
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complete article at http://www.pinr.com
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- The Power and Interest News Report (PINR) is an analysis-based publication that seeks to, as objectively as possible, provide insight into various conflicts, regions and points of interest around the globe. PINR approaches a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral judgments to the reader. This report may not be reproduced, reprinted or broadcast without the written permission of inquiries@pinr.com. All comments should be directed to content@pinr.com.

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