[PINR] Oct. 27, 2004: Myanmar

Power and Interest News Report (PINR)

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October 27, 2004:

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"Myanmar's Costless Shift to a Hard-Line"
Drafted by Dr. Michael A. Weinstein on October 27, 2004
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On October 20, Prime Minister Khin Nyunt of Myanmar was removed from his position and replaced by Soe Win after an apparent power struggle within the State Peace and Development Council, the military junta that has ruled the Southeast Asian country since 1988. Under military rule, Myanmar has had one of the most reclusive regimes in the world, limiting external contacts and refusing to participate fully in the globalization project, which involves free trade and investment, privatization, and democratic institutions. Nyunt, who assumed the post of prime minister in August, 2003, was seen by the international community as a figure who might move Myanmar -- if only tentatively -- toward greater participation in the globalization framework. Win, in contrast, is a hardliner who reportedly opposes any steps toward democratization and has little, if any, concern with satisfying foreign powers.
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- Pragmatists and Hardliners

Nyunt's ouster was engineered by Senior General Than Shwe who has been Myanmar's strongman and chairman of the State Peace and Development Council since 1992. Shwe's rise to power followed parliamentary elections in 1990 that were canceled by the military after the reformist National League for Democracy (N.L.D.) won 396 seats, an assortment of minor parties took 79 seats and the pro-military National Unity Party won only ten.
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- International Response to Yangon's Shift

Endowed with oil and gas reserves, yet impoverished and underdeveloped in great part because of regime-imposed isolation and a crony economy, Myanmar is embedded in an international force field in which the United Nations, the country's Southeast Asian neighbors (particularly Thailand), Japan and, most importantly, China are the major players. Each of these actors has interests or limitations that have prevented it from exerting sufficient pressure on Yangon to wring concessions from the junta or to threaten its existence. The responses to the political shake-up in Yangon by the organizations and states that are interested in Myanmar show the pattern that the junta counts on to make its hard-line policies successful.
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- Conclusion

Given its oil resources and its attractiveness to regional investors, it is unlikely that Myanmar will be hurt in any serious way by a shift to a hard-line position in Yangon. The split between A.S.E.A.N. and the United States on the proper policy to encourage democratization in Myanmar leaves the United Nations without any clear direction for its reconciliation efforts. Bangkok will not surrender its economic relations with Yangon, as long as the latter honors agreements. Tokyo will not want to lose the foothold that it has in Yangon. Beijing has every interest in keeping the junta in power and preventing the emergence of a reform government in Yangon that would tilt toward mainstream globalization and would welcome American investment and influence.

It is likely that the hardliners will get away with their takeover without suffering any significant loss.
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