[PINR] Nov. 12, 2004: Geostrategic Implications of the U.S. Presidential E

Power and Interest News Report (PINR)

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November 12, 2004:

For a past article on neo-conservatism in the Bush administration, visit the following analysis:
''The Waning Influence of Neo-Conservative Strategists''
http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=230
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"The Geostrategic Implications of the U.S. Presidential Election"
Drafted by Dr. Michael A. Weinstein on November 12, 2004
http://www.pinr.com

Geostrategic decisions made by states and international organizations can be traced primarily to the efforts of their ruling groups to pursue their perceived interests. As a rule, the policies that have been adopted and adapted over time to satisfy persisting interests take precedence over shifts in public opinion. Yet -- especially in democracies -- popular sentiment influences decision makers, reinforcing or weakening pre-established tendencies. Elections are the most important vehicles for popular sentiment because they establish the constituencies on which leaders depend for their support.
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- A Divided Society

The presidential vote starkly confirmed the divisions in the U.S. electorate that had crystallized in the 2000 election. The electoral map, broken down by counties, showed Kerry's support to be concentrated in urban areas on the two coasts and the upper midwest, and Bush's to repose in the rest of the country. Bush defeated Kerry by 57 to 42 percent in small towns and rural areas, and by 52 to 47 percent in the suburbs. In contrast, Kerry won cities with more than 50,000 people by 54 to 45 percent.
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- Adverse Conditions

A popular support base that is conditioned to accept and affirm the moribund neo-conservative paradigm is only one added factor in an array of persisting conditions that impedes the administration's ability to change direction in order to pursue U.S. interests more effectively. The list of constraints on an active international posture and a corresponding pull toward retraction and reactivity to challenges initiated elsewhere includes the need for Washington to continue dealing with the aftermath of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the likelihood that other great and regional powers will exploit the policy void to test U.S. vulnerabilities throughout the world, the overhang of a renewal of Islamic revolutionary military action on U.S. territory, and a complex of economic problems, notably the federal budget deficit, but also the possibility of resource scarcity leading to higher prices for raw materials, particularly energy, and political and military conflict over supplies. Ea!
ch of those conditions limits Washi
ngton's discretion; together, they dispose Washington to caution, indecision and sporadic bursts of reaction.
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- Reinforcing Factors from the Election

As the Bush administration attempts to deal with persisting problems resulting in great part from actions taken during the President's first term, it will face difficulties that follow from the need to satisfy the constituencies that made for the Republican victory. The election confirmed that the American public does not share a consensus on foreign policy and, indeed, is polarized. It is also polarized on economic and social issues, along similar axes, creating a situation in which any new policies proposed by the administration are likely to be met with domestic opposition and at the very least partial support.
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- Conclusion

Persistent and emerging political conditions all point in the direction of drift and reactivity in U.S. foreign and security policy -- the election has intensified tendencies that were already present. There is little chance that a new security doctrine will be created in the short term and that a coherent political strategy will inform Republican politics. Lack of public consensus will inhibit foreign policy initiatives, whether unilateralist or multilateralist. Washington's operative foreign policy is likely to be damage control.
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complete report at http://www.pinr.com
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