[PINR] 10 December 2004: Taiwan's Elections Raise Tensions in the Strait

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Power and Interest News Report (PINR)
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10 December 2004
For an explanation of why Shi'a leader Moqtada al-Sadr has joined the political process in Iraq, please visit this following past analysis:

"After Winning Concessions, Al-Sadr Tries His Hand at Diplomacy"
http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=219

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Taiwan's Elections Raise Tensions in the Strait

Drafted By: Adam Wolfe
http://www.pinr.com

On December 11, Taiwan will hold legislative elections that will help to determine the island's policy toward mainland China. Campaigning for the Democratic Progressive Party (D.P.P.), President Chen Shui-bian has focused primarily on cross-strait relations with the People's Republic of China. His rhetoric has been sometimes inflammatory and other times conciliatory, depending on what audience he was targeting at the time -- exactly how he will approach Beijing depends largely on Saturday's election results.
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Domestic Demographics May Shift Cross-Strait Policy

President Chen used his October 10 National Day address to discuss resuming talks with Beijing based on a 1992 agreement that allowed each party to interpret "one China" on its own terms. These talks broke down in 1999 after China rebuffed then President Lee Teng-hui's definition of ties as "special state to state" relations. After Lee's redefinition raised the possibility of an independent Taiwan, China's then-President Jiang Zemin halted the talks. This speech is perhaps the most important speech that Chen has made in regards to the elections and cross-straight issues, because it demonstrates Chen's conflicting approach toward Beijing.
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China May Adopt a New Approach Toward Taiwan

Since Chen was first elected in 2000, Beijing has refused to accept the Taiwanese president as a serious interlocutor on cross-strait issues -- China did not believe that Chen was politically able to pursue his independence agenda. In the April elections, Chen was declared the winner by the slimmest of margins and only after a court-ordered recount. The election also saw the defeat, due to a lack of a quorum, of a two-part referendum on increasing Taiwan's military spending and setting up a framework for direct talks with Beijing. This was seen by Beijing as evidence that it could maintain the status quo with Chen until 2008, because the population of Taiwan does not support his agenda with mainland China. However, if the Pan-Green coalition gains a majority in parliament, especially if it is through T.S.U. gains, Beijing will be forced to engage Chen on cross-strait issues.
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Conclusion

Should pro-independence legislators gain a majority in Taiwan's elections on December 11, tensions will certainly rise in the Taiwan Strait. However, it seems likely that the tensions will be containable for the short term. Chen has leaned toward a more pro-independence policy during the election, but he will likely pursue a pragmatic, business-oriented agenda after the elections. The danger for China-Taiwan relations is that this election cycle may show evidence that demographic shifts in Taiwan are leading the country toward declaring independence.
Chen was elected in 2000 not because he supported an independence agenda, but because he was widely seen as a reformer. His party, D.P.P., has focused on economic issues, while also defending the "Taiwan Identity." However, in this election cycle his coalition's gains are likely to come from candidates that are running mainly on an independence agenda. The December 11 elections could show that Taiwanese independence is gaining popularity in Taiwan -- something neither the Taiwanese or the Chinese government seems prepared to deal with.

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Report Drafted By:
Adam Wolfe
complete report available at http://www.pinr.com

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