(PINR)The Bush-Blair Alliance and the 2005 British Election

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Power and Interest News Report (PINR)
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05 January 2005
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The Bush-Blair Alliance and the 2005 British Election

Drafted By: Janelle Osmann
http://www.pinr.com

The September 11 attacks and the consequential growth of security measures on the international political scene worked to reemphasize the longstanding alliance between the United Kingdom and the United States. The continuation of such an alliance has caused unrest among the constituents of the United Kingdom, who have openly expressed their strong resentment toward extended British participation in the U.S. intervention in Iraq. Much of this anger has been directed at British Prime Minister TonyBlair, who has worked closely with U.S. President George W. Bush on a number of policy initiatives that are considered highly controversial to the U.K. population. Nevertheless, with Blair expecting to call parliamentary elections in the spring of 2005, strategic timing and international diplomacy efforts may play an integral role in his reelection.

Shared U.S.-U.K. Interests

Despite the U.K. public's antipathy for President Bush, as well as growing pressure fromthe United Nations and European Union to conduct international affairs using a multilateral approach, Blair has repeatedly confirmed his belief in the legitimacy of the United States' intervention in Iraq. When asked about the reasoning behind his alliance with President Bush, Blair bluntly reported to the press that the U.K. and U.S. "share the same interests."
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Blair Straddles Both Sides of the Atlantic

As the European Union grows in size and political clout, so does the strain on Blair to loosen his American binds, and strengthen those with whom he will assume the European Union presidency in 2005. This sort of positioning would enhance Britain's clout with E.U. power states Germany and France by allowing it to serve as a proponent of their agenda -- topics relevant in other E.U. states, such as the Kyoto Protocol, E.U. expansion, and the Middle East peace process -- and less of President Bush's initiatives. Potentially, a stronger alliance with the European Union could feasiblybolster the U.K.'s influence in Washington by providing the backing of 25 other countries along with it. This reason partly explains why the Franco-German combine is trying to bring the U.K. further to its side.
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Conclusion

Because of this situation, Blair is constantly facing the difficult choice between pursuing U.S. and E.U. interests. He appears to be just barely straddling the Atlantic, trying to appease both sides. If Blair is effectively able to bridge the trans-Atlantic divide, he will have the ability to assert influence over both the world's remaining superpower and the Union that is arising as a second possible power center.
Contrastingly, if Blair subsides to British and European pressures to liberate himself from American ties, he will be able to operate an E.U. agenda, but will lose influence in the United States, while also weakening his ability to act independently of the Franco-German combine. If Blair adheres to U.S. pressure at the expense of supporting E.U. interests, he will lose his ability to act independently of Washington and will become heavily dependent on its good graces.
Blair's reelection to parliament is widely believed to be a foregone conclusion, as the Tory Party's candidate, Michael Howard, lags in approval ratings. Regardless of whether Blair chooses to maintain his current strong ties to America, or begins to favor the European Union, he will need to exert influence over both entities in order to serve as a prime minister who continued to act as the historical arbitrator between the United States and Europe. This will depend not upon which side of the Atlantic he aligns himself with, but how much political clout he can establish by continuing to sway in the middle.
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complete report available at http://www.pinr.com
Report Drafted By:
Janelle Osmann
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