From the UK's The Independent
The pound surged against the dollar yesterday amid speculation that Warren Buffett and George Soros, the world's most famous speculators, are betting the US currency will plummet.Sterling powered to a five-year high against the dollar for a second day as concerns over the US current account deficit continued to outweigh evidence of a rebounding economy.Traders believe selling the dollar is a one-way bet, and some latched on to rumours that speculators were building "short" positions on the dollar - betting it will tumble in the coming months.One hedge fund manager, who asked not to be named, said: "I have heard that both Soros and Buffett are shorting the dollar. There's a growing belief on Wall Street that the dollar is looking like a one-way bet downwards."
A spokesman for Mr Soros, who famously "broke" the Bank of England when the pound crashed out of the exchange rate mechanism a decade ago, said he never commented on speculation. Mr Buffett was unavailable for comment.The surge in the pound to $1.7155, its strongest level since October 1998, was boosted after Merrill Lynch forecast the dollar would plunge a further 8 per cent by the end of next year.
Demand for the dollar has waned on concern the country will not attract enough capital to fund its record current account deficit, which is expected to break through 5 per cent of GDP this year.In a massive revision to its forecast issued on the eve of yesterday's Thanksgiving holiday, Merrill Lynch said the pound would hit $1.85 - which would be its highest level since 1992.The blue chip Wall Street bank said sterling would rise on signs of returning economic strength, rising interest rates and hope that the Government won't raise taxes before a 2005 election. But it warned that the surge in the pound would be short-lived as the concerns overhanging the UK - from a budget deficit, huge consumer indebtedness and a tight labour market - would come home to roost."Bubble trouble currencies such as the pound should continue to do well for now," it said. "But upsides in the currencies in these regions should end next year as tighter conditions threaten to burst credit bubbles and shape market expectations of lower rates." Merrill Lynch expects the dollar to tumble to $1.33 against the euro, a drop of 12 per cent from yesterday's $1.19 value. But it cut its forecast for the euro to surge to 80p against the pound - a level that would smooth sterling's entry into the single currency - to 73p.
A surge in the pound against the dollar will be a boon for British tourists but could cause headaches for both businesses and the Bank of England.Khuram Chaudhry, a strategist at Merrill Lynch, said: "UK investors may find company sales exposure to the US unfavourable in this scenario.A stronger domestic currency is likely to mean the Bank is less likely to raise interest rates aggressively." David Bloom, a global economist at HSBC who does not see the pound going much above $1.70, said any spike in the pound would be short-lived. "If you want to sell the dollar because you believe in the structural problems such as the current account deficit then you buy the pound but there's a downside because the UK is also looking a trade deficit, an indebted economy," he said. "If you think those factors will cause the dollar to fall then the pound should fall as well." He said the main beneficiary should be the euro, which has smaller deficits - despite the high-profile row over the stability and growth pact. He said HSBC was sticking with its historic forecast for a dollar-euro rate of $1.35. Mr Bloom warned that if the pound were to fall it could tumble even further than the dollar as there would be little interest from other countries to prop it up.
http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/story.jsp?story=467972Edit: Addendum:
Euro hits record against dollar
The euro has hit a record high against the dollar, defying recent political squabbles over the single currency and upbeat US economic data. The euro continued a long upward run to hit $1.98 in morning trading, up about two thirds of a percent, mainly at the expense of a weakening dollar. Faith in the US has been undermined by concerns over mounting deficits despite evidence of a return to growth. Global security concerns have also made markets wary of the US currency.
From:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3245956.stmDollar and Euro Game in Full Swing
05/27/2003 21:11
The dollar will inevitably grow against the euro
World-known financier George Soros has recently caused a commotion on the world financial market. Last week Soros announced that he was going to convert his currency assets in euro. Soros was "offended" with the American economic policy because of the dollar reduction against other leading currencies. Newspapers have published a great deal of articles and reports, in which it was said that Soros had speculated for the dollar decline. In addition to that, the dollar has recently reached the all-time low against the euro - $1,18 per one euro.
As a matter of fact, it is not the first time, when George Soros resorts to such measures. Ten years ago the financier made a similar announcement about the British pound. He started selling pounds sterling, although some people started buying them on exchanges all over the world, after the rate reached the lowest point. The British pound improved a bit later, and it turned out that those strange buyers were Soros's people. As a result, the financier managed to obtain a huge sum of pounds sterling that had been purchased at very cheap prices.
This brings up a question: why do market players make one and the same mistake twice? The answer to this question is simple: real players do not make any mistakes. Dilettantes play an important role on the Western financial market, they try to be fixed up to Soros in their activities. Their influence never lasts long, and they all basically lose in the end, giving away all their money to George Soros and the like.
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http://english.pravda.ru/main/18/89/356/10110_.htmlSoros bets against the dollar
David Teather in New York
Wednesday May 21, 2003
The Guardian
George Soros, the billionaire investor dubbed "the man who broke the pound", yesterday added to the mounting pressure on the dollar when he admitted publicly he was betting against the currency.
In an interview with US cable channel CNBC, Mr Soros disclosed that he had recently begun to sell. "I now have a short position against the dollar," he said. "I have listened to what the secretary of the treasury is telling me. Who am I to stand in the way?
"We continue to sell the US dollar against the euro, the Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and gold."
Mr Soros played a significant role in forcing the pound from the European exchange rate mechanism in 1992 when he bet against sterling. His firm was said to have made $1bn after the pound was ejected.
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,960213,00.htmlDollar plunges as Soros bets against it By Philip Thornton, Economics Correspondent
29 November 2003
The dollar tumbled across the board yesterday, hitting an all-time low against the euro amid fears that Wall Street was betting against the US currency. The euro traded as high as $1.2018 - above $1.20 for the first time - as the dollar slid to new multi-year lows against sterling and the Canadian dollar and a six-month low against the Swiss franc....
With American markets shut for Thanksgiving, traders focused on a string of negative news on the dollar, including yesterday's report in The Independent that the leading financiers GEORGE SOROS and Warren Buffett had taken "short positions"....
http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/story.jsp?story=468307You can read more about this in one of the older LBN threads:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=211930#214167 Soros, by the way is a Carlyle guy. The old saying... Beware of Greeks bearing gifts!