Some of the media whores on CNN yesterday were trying to make out that the recent massive (and largely peaceful) demonstrations by Shiites for immediate direct elections in opposition to the CPA/US plan for elections by appointed caucuses were a positive sign of a blossoming democracy taking hold in Iraq. However they really didn't delve too deeply into what was going to happen if the US ignored the Shiite demands.
We know that the US can't allow for a one man, one vote situation because the Shiites would likely end up in control. So now it looks like we're reaching a point of an irresistible force meeting up with an immovable object. We'll get to see which cracks first. And given the history of Iraq, I wouldn't count on it being the Iraqi Shiites. If the US does attempt to keep a lid on the situation, it will only be by means of a massive and expensive military operation which I very much doubt will be sustainable in the long term.
Here is an interesting piece on the situation by the libertarian columnist Justin Raimondo from antiwar.com.
As they gathered in the southern city of Basra, the cry went up from the crowd of tens of thousands:
"No, no to America! Yes, yes to al-Sistani!"
Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Husseini al-Sistani, the leader of Iraq's Shi'ites, isn't happy about the Coalition Provisional Authority plan to hold provincial "caucuses" of their handpicked stooges, who would then organize a government. Last summer the Ayatollah, spiritual leader of Iraq's 60-70% majority Shi'ites, issued a fatwa calling for direct, democratic elections to a constituent assembly, torpedoing an American scheme to write a Constitution first. Imperial proconsul Paul Bremer then came up with his caucus plan, which is now effectively blocked by the Ayatollah's veto.
Undeterred by prudence, Bremer is now launching a campaign to get Sistani to change his mind, mobilizing his amen corner in the Iraqi Governing Council and even pushing Kofi Annan to lobby for the caucus plan. Annan has cited numerous "experts," who all claim that a census couldn't possibly be taken in time, the security situation is too tenuous, and giving half a dozen other reasons why the "liberation" of Iraq just can't mean one person, one vote.
So let's see if I get this straight: the U.S., which went to war to export "democracy" to Iraq (and the entire Middle East), in defiance of the UN, is telling the Iraqis that they aren't ready for self-government – and is now seeking the UN Secretary General's imprimatur for what amounts to a policy of brazen imperialism. Instead of elections, a series of elite "caucus" meetings will be held, in which the neocons, er, um, I mean, the Americans, handpick the voters – and predetermine the results.http://antiwar.com/justin/index.php?articleid=1708