Employment Numbers: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics"

Yesterday's employment numbers claimed that 106,910,000 people were employed in February, a claimed increase of 170,000 jobs since January. What the pundits didn't make clear was that the January employment numbers were simultaneously revised downward by 72,000 jobs from the claimed employment levels of a month ago. Thus, this administration gets to 'conveniently' claim the same 72,000 jobs two months in a row. (Every little bit helps, I guess.)

Note: The most recent two months in every monthly employment report are regarded as 'preliminary' -- and are revised in the succeeding two months. Thus, for any month we get three different counts: preliminary, revised preliminary, and final.

But it doesn't stop there. This month's employment figures revised the December employment levels downwards, also. This month we're told that there were 7,000 fewer people employed in December than we were told last month. What this means is that last month's change in employment was overstated by 65,000 jobs. Thus, instead of 'only' losing 2,162,000 jobs between December and January (which is what we were told last month), we actually lost 2,227,000 jobs. (At least until next month's jobs report when the numbers get revised yet again.)

These, of course, are the unadjusted numbers -- not 'seasonally adjusted.' When the magic of 'seasonal adjustment' is applied, we're told it's not really so bad. Try telling that to the 2,227,000 people who lost their jobs. Do people who lose their 'seasonal' jobs feel less unemployed?

Well, a picture is worth a thousand words (about 83 thousand bytes) so here's the picture ...




Some might benefit from an explanation of what this chart shows. First of all, we must understand that the population of this country is and has been increasing. As the population increases, the number of employed people must increase as well in order to maintain the same 'level' of employment. That's what the 'Employment Trend' line depicts -- that's the baseline for a constant level of employment. Rather than obfuscate 'employmnet' by using the (often-revised) "seasonally-adjusted" figures, I use the unadjusted figures and then show the 12-month moving average. This is a more realistic portrayal of employment, imho. YMMV, of course.

Since the beginning of the Busholini misadminstration, employment in this country has fallen behind by about ten million jobs. But we're told it's getting better? :eyes: Wanna buy a bridge?

What does ten million jobs mean? It means ten million people who aren't benefitting from our economic system. It means ten million people who aren't paying into Social Security. It means ten million people who aren't paying Income taxes. It means ten million people paying less for consumer goods, education, travel, entertainment, and other discretionary items. It's the same as the population of the entire state of Michigan! (Indeed, it's more than the entire population of 43 of the 50 states. That's a lot of people.)

I am also a scuba diver. (At least that is my impression from your dive flag.)

It's better than sex. (But that might just be about expertise.) :silly:

is it shows how complicated these numbers can get in a hurry!

The old saying...'if you can't dazzle them with your brilliance, baffle them with bullshit', definitely applies to the Bush Administrations approach to explaining the current jobs situation!

They can twist and revise and adjust until Einstein himself couldn't unravel the truth of just how bad things really are, from these numbers!

And just the simple fact that a job at a 7-11 counts as much in the statistic as CEO of a major corporation, makes the statistic invalid as an indicator of overall economic health, as far as I am concerned!

Things are bad out there...and what few jobs ARE being created-if any really are-are so far down on the economic scale, they will be of no help in powering a consumer driven recovery!

That window and door plant Bush went to in Florida...that was gonna hire 40 people (maybe)? Those jobs MIGHT pay a big 10 bucks an hour-tops! Probably start people out at minimum wage.

Well Hoorah for you George Bush! You just made some more 'working poor'! And that little shop probably doesn't have the first benefit!

And there that fool was, standing there crowing about it, like it's the greatest thing in the world, like he had really done something!

He makes me want to puke!

Thanks for the chart TN.

The best you can say is that the recent three down peaks may be an attempt to form a reverse H&S bottom. In any case a break of the most recent two lows would really be ominous.

This "flat spot" seems to be lingering longer than any others in the time frame you presented. It fuels the notion that what is occuring now may be structural rather than cyclical.

O

Consider that increased 'privatization' of various federal functions has offset, to some degree, the reduced private employment numbers. Consider that an impact of the Busholini taxcuts has been to send investments off-shore more rapidly. When we consider the increased government spending, increased debt, increased trade deficits, and impending increases in the retired population ... we're in a world of hurt. When I consider a GINI Index of 41 and rising, I see the plantation economics of a banana republic. In Busholini Amerika, if you ain't wealthy (and being more enriched by the labor of others), you ain't shit.

There may be other factors at work here as well. Not only are many of the jobs that accompany an economic recovery being produced overseas, primarily in China and India, technological innovation allows goods and even services to be produced more efficiently.

At some point, we have to face the fact that there will be less total aggregate labor hours needed to produce the goods and services demanded by consumers. I have always wondered when the shortened work week promised by technological efficiency would become more than just a pipe dream.

Maybe full employment 100 years from now will be a 20 hour work week, that is if the notion of time based compensation still exists...

Your Banana Republic comments are spot on.

O

Finally, I have a great graphic on the biggest issue for our cause...jobs!

This will be going out on my daily e-mail. Thanks very, very much!