an incumbent is a referendum on the incumbent. This election will be no different. It definitely will be a referendum on Bush. The three main issues probably will be the economy, Iraq, and Bush's incessant and compulsive lying. These issues likely will determine 10 to 15 million votes. Those 10 to 15 million votes will preclude another close election.
Since 9/11 Bush approval rating has been in a steady down trend with the occasional bounce. Bush's decline in the polls is nothing other than the American people looking at and listening to Bush and realizing that he is an incompetent liar. Day by day and voter by voter, Bush himself is convincing the American people that he should not be president. If the trend since 9/11 continues, Bush will lose badly. If the trend reverses soon enough and strongly enough, Bush will win easily.
Between now and November Bush will continue to lie at every opportunity about every subject on which he speaks. Between now and November, Bush will continue to demonstrate his incompetence. Between now and November Bush will continue to demonstrate his Fecal Midas Touch. Bush probably can benefit only from what happens to the economy and Iraq between now and November. Unless another issue arises between now and November, the economy must improve and Iraq can not get too much worse for Bush to win.
FIRE THE LIAR