Swing state

The stakes are high – Pennsylvania’s 21 electoral votes represent the fifth-largest electoral prize – and the barrage of TV advertising that began in early March is certain to intensify in the months ahead.

Statewide polling suggests that the Pennsylvania race will be tight.

A Quinnipiac University poll‚ completed two days after Kerry became the presumptive nominee‚ showed him with 45 percent and Bush with 44 percent in a two-way race. The same poll showed independent Ralph Nader cutting into Kerry’s support in a three-way race and reshuffling the results to 44 percent for Bush‚ 40 percent for Kerry and 7 percent for Nader.

Officials in both campaigns and outside analysts agree it will be next to impossible for Kerry to win the presidency without carrying Pennsylvania‚ and slightly less difficult for Bush.

http://www.thereporteronline.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=11240122&BRD=2275&PAG=461&dept_id=466404&rfi=6

Kerry would have to win all the Gore states (other than PA) and also win OH and FL. This is possible, but makes it extremely difficult -- oddly enough though, the poll numbers for OH and FL seem to be better than PA.

If Kerry wins FL and OH, he almost definetely wins the election, even if he loses WI and PA.

Didn't bush*'s flip-flopping on issues related to the steel industry hurt him in Pennsylvania?

that many steelmill workers were very excited about it. They were upset that they did so much work for Clinton during his campaings and didn't get anything in return. They were really happy Bush did the sanctions.

However, I haven't really heard squat since then. I know the steel industries had their first profitable years in a while but that is it. The only other thing I heard was that this move really hurt him in MI because it raised the price of steel, and sent some steel using companies out of the country.

The way the steel workers union went out of its way to endorse Gephardt so early, I am inclinded to think that they could give a shit less about Bush's former sanctions.

PA is going to be tight...glad I vote there.

When I consider Ohio I know that there is one major metro area..Cincinnati..that is heavily GOP. And another, Columbus, which also leans GOP.

When i consider PA I know the two big citys..Pittsburgh and Philadelphia..are both pretty much Democratic. Oh, sure, the empty acres of the Appalachia between the two are GOP strongholds, but I think these two citys give the Dems a good chance in winning that state.

I'm not sure about the smaller citys, but id wager that Eire, Allentown/Bethlehem, Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, York, Harrisburg, etc, are also good places for Dems to go hunting for votes.