By the 2030's one of the two parties will be dead

I posted this either yesterday or sometime else during the weekend to no avail...


The coming decades will bring us quite a few domestic problems: the collapse of Social Security and Medicare, the progression toward global warming (ie. armed scrambling for resources), and not to mention future terrorism, Islamic Radical or domestic (ie. Montana Militia, Aryan Nation, KKK). These crisis will create a political change not seen since the Kansas-Nebraska Act destroyed the Whigs and created the Repubs. Who ever cannot provide the best solutions to these problems and is the most divided to fall and a new party will form. Political coalitions that we are familiar with will change almost overnight, and the surviving party itself will be transformed in the process. The definition of what it means to be "Liberal" or "Conservative" will be altered.

I think both of the parties will be dead by 2030 with the pubs going out first. The country can't take too much more of corporate tyranny.

I honestly think we will see multi-party democracy in the next 20 years.

This country has never had more than two major parties exist at once.

Doesn't mean things can't change. It was 200 years ago that One party or leader was the norm. I'm sure those citizens couldn't forsee two parties either but things got so bad that they essentially had to.

So it will go here. If things keep going the way they are going you are looking at major upheaval.

The two party hegemony is not omnipotent or immutible.

then we will still have two parties. I'm assuming we'll still have those things in place.

...a wild ride. Too many unknowns (Oil, water, fish, etcetera) and too many ponzi schemes ready to tumble.

But with the assumption that those things stay intact you're probably right. We'll have either two, or One, major party.

If the Repubs die out, the Democrats will survive, but the coalition of people who describe themselves as Democrats would change.

Since climate change will be a new issue, I honestly think enviromentalists could become Conseratives/Neocons. They would join war hawks because of the enviroment's future bond to national security. Libertarian-leaning types and Pacifists may form an alliance in one of the parties as a result. Some "Democrats" may defect to the new party, while some former "Republicans" will become Democrats because of something the party does or doesn't do.


If the Democrats die out, a similar scenario could play out. However, an economically Libertarian party may dominate, since the only scenario I can envision would be a dissatisfaction with SS/Medicare beign the prinicple cause for the Dem demise.

...shortly after they strip the Human Face of American Capitalism. Sort of like when the alien invaders peel back their latex "faces". EEEK!

That'd be one ugly scene.

Although Libertarian-types could easily be a minority. It all depends on which crisis leads to what, but either way I think there'll be a realignment and collapse of one of the parties.

better.. A system like that would defeat the radicals, since they would be sxposed for what they truly were.. ON both sides..

The republican party is not real one party anyway.. WE know it, but the rank and file repubes don't seem to..

fiscal hawks like Lou Dobbs
foaming at the mouth jesus-freaks like Falwell
evil take-over-the-world types like Perle, wolfowitz et al
good 'ole boy goober types like Jeb
dumb 'ole boys like *
war hawks-social program busters like McCain
womb-invaders like Santorum
Snakes like Delay..
Bigots like Jesse Helms

Most of these people have very little in common with each other, except that they have all banded together and pooled their money so they can defeat ANYTHING that threatens any ONE of their "issues"..


We call ouyrselves the big-tent party, when in actually we all basically have one basic agenda.. fairness..

fairness to the environment, to ALL people, to childrens issues..

Our message always seems to be marginalized because any ONE of our "issues" faces a concen trated attack from ALL of their disparate segments..

The animal rights people don't seem to "b;end" with the "choice" people, or the envornment people..and so on..

What we really need is a unifying person who can forge a true coalition and blending of efforts between ALL the factions of our party.. Until that happens, we will never have the clout or money to attack them..

Each group seems too protective of "their money..their publicity" and no one seems interested in the end game here..

That's why a coalition government could be better..

The Green and Constitution Party would dominate the extremes, while the DLC-Rockefeller Repubs would be the middle. Libertarians would be a small part of the government, but too miniscule because of their conflicting views.

I think this is exactly what is going to do both parties in. The need to raise funds has outstripped what is good for the country. I think the pubs will go first because they can't hide thier greed for power much longer even among the most ignorant. We're already starting to see this happen.

The other thing that I suspect is that most Americans really do not want to see bodies in the streets or see us turn into a third world country. That said, the Dems are more for fairness as a whole but the rush for Corporate Money will doom the Dems too if they do not face up to this. I don't know much but I do know that we can't turn a blind eye to what's going on for very much longer and a coalition gov't of sorts is the best bet.

While I vote Dem, I also see the Greens starting to lay the groundwork to becoming a powerful political force. The Dems cannot afford to alienate the economic left if they want to remain a major party.

The problem is ... you presume that the party with the best solutions wil win out. Well, only if the people can discern which has the best solutions. Difficult under the best of circumstances but ... man, we've never been here before. We've never had a high energy civilization before ... much less one that is has based its economy on atmosphere transforming processes. How can we know what will happen? Or when? Or what to do about it? We're making this up as we go along.

The Bush strategy (deny it and hope no one notices climate change) will not work on the global warming problem ... but that is not apparent to many people today.

A lot of his agenda will be irreversable when Kerry comes to power because DeLay and Frist will block attempts to change it. And when SS and Medicare break down, they'll try and blame the Democrats for shouldering the people with big government.

The voters of elections 2024, 2028, 2032, and 2036 will by the ones who realize *'s errors.

in the near future the Repubs are on the way out....if they don't destroy the earth first.

It's not really that they hate the New Deal,War on Poverty,eyc. per se. It's because these programs are clearly Democratic legacies. They need to dismantle these to take out our natural base. They see the changing demographics and they know that their demise is guaranteed, unless they can take out the federal government now.
If they can make the Democrats powerless, our majorities will dissolve into ineffectual special interests groups.

But I think they've overplayed their hand and if they lose control of the Houses, real power to investigate and regulate can be returned to the people. We could see another bloodless revolution, a renewal of the government's social contract with the people, instead of corporations.

"the collapse of Social Security and Medicare" -- this has been predicted since the '70s, always by those who want it to be "rolled back." The only way it will be "rolled back" is if people no longer have faith in it. SO, SO, SO, make sure that it is "sacrosanct."

"the progression toward global warming (ie. armed scrambling for resources)" -- OK, really! Armed scrambling for resources is going on right now, hell, it has been going on though out history!!! All of history!!! How is that equivalent to global warming? Or global cooling? Or anything other than "business as usual"? PLEASE, do not simply throw things together unless there is at least either a solid connection, or at least a ironic or sarcastic association. PLEASE. Simple, fair, considered discourse.

Now, the destruction of one (by definition, "out of time" party (the Whigs) ), and the rise of another, i.e. Lincoln's Republicans, is not the same as "the Kansas-Nebraska Act destroyed the Whigs and created the Repubs."

Now, the definition of what is Liberal and Conservative has changes many times, usually for political labeling purposes more than for anything approaching idealogical consistency. Having that happen again? Easy. However, what would be insightful would be to be able to truly dissect what will be considered Liberal and Conservative, an why.

Anyway, this is a rather crass post in response to someone, and I can only plead conscience.

If the Democrats lose, neocons will be in power for two decades. During this time the Democrats will splinter: Greens, appeasers looking for whatever scrap the neocons throw their way, and defectors that will change to Republicans. An environmental party will rise up and have limited success on the west coast. A labor party will have marginal success in the Rust Belt. But the federal government, all 3 branches, will be Republican.

We are on the threshold of the American Dark Ages. Never ending wars, the erosion of the federal judiciary, eradication of federalism, abolition of public education ...

And there will continue to be two parties, Dems and Repubs.

The primary difference between them will remain as it has always been:

Dems = 'Cooperation as a planet' as our only hope for survival as a species (evolved)
Repukes = Military competition with rest of world (and class warfare within our own society) to sustain idea and standard of living of America for as long as possible (primitive).

This country will be at civil war within 15 years, divided along almoost the exact lines we now see dividing us. The entire economy of the world will be collapsed by that time, SS/Medicare will be quaint old notion that was long-before-abandoned as 'unsustainable'.

This is because there are clearly two fundamentally different types of humans: the evolved, rational cooperators who fundmentally believe in logic and science (that would be US), and the primitive, selfish competitors who believe in ancient scrolls and imaginary beings in the sky (the freepers and their ilk).

Shortly after the oil crisis, the real serious effects of Global Warming will kick in, esp. in Europe, synergizing the negative effects, and leading to mcuh finger pointing at the USA for its gluttonous ways and go-it-alone foreign policies. We will be completely isolated, and (rightly) seen as the most obvious destroyers of the earth and her ecosystems.

I'd say it's likely that unless we cooperators prevail and get the rest of the country to begin to think like we do, there's a damn good chance that a civilization ending thermo-nuclear war will result within 20 years, and the US will be on the receiving end of ALL the worlds bombs (but we'll 'get' the rest of the world on our way 'out'...)

Sorry...