On-line polling indicates that Bush's REAL support is limited to 35%.

I call'em the "Thirty-percenters": those who will support Bush (and any other Republican) no matter what they do or say.

Even if they say things like "he refused to disarm" in response to a question about how he "got that so wrong?" (about WMDs) and why he "took this nation to war on the basis of what have turned out to be a series a false premises?"

Even if he says things like "because the 9/11 Commission wants to ask us questions" and "it's a good chance for both of us to answer questions" in response to the repeated question "Why are you and the Vice President insisting on appearing together before the 9/11 Commission?"

They're just online polls, I know, but I DO think they mean something at least. They ARE consistent:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4723799/
34% say he did "very good" to "excellent" (54% "poor" to "disaster"!)

http://www.cnn.com
Scroll down to "Quick Vote".
33% say he was "convincing" (45% unconvincing).

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3096434/
35% say he made his case (65% say he didn't).

20% are die hard republicans and 15% are insane or incompetent.

Of course Bushco is going to give us a lot more support that may last years. That is why gop supporters may drop bush.

have a far different vision of/for this Republic than did the founders.

Any poll with a self-selected sample is worthless
Any poll where people can vote multiple times is worthless
We know that DU and FR regularly urge members to tilt polls
Only people with computers and internet access can participate

added on edit-

while I hope you are right, we mustn't fall into a trap of wishful thinking. Do not confuse participating in on-line polls with actual political work. We need to shut down our computers, hit the streets and go door-to-door, staff the phone banks to change minds and get the vote out.

That needed to be raised.

But I do not base this "thirty-percenter" idea on one online poll alone. Plus, these were just the only early polling of any kind on the press conference last night.

For starters, while not asking exactly the same way, the three are remarkably consistent in their reflections of people's opinions about last night. And I know people can Freep polls, but they can and do so on both sides. If this was just one poll, I could be led to believe that it was freeped in one direction or the other. But when you understand that all three would have to have been freeped to the same extent in the same direction, the results start to look more real than freeped. I know we have had all three of these posted here today, but you can bet Freep sites have also.

THEN, these results mirror many in scientific polling. Numbers in the 30 precent range come up often as core support for Bush. Yes, his "Approval" numbers are typically between 45-50% right now. But that is a more general, "soft" indicator, and I believe many who say they "approve" of his job performance to date still simply say so because of 9/11 and the fact that we are "at war". You need only look at the extremely steep and consistent decline in Approval since 9/11 to see that this indicator is NOT an indicator of core support.

Direction of the country (last 5 polls): 51, 38, 36, 39, 41, 39 "on right track".

I firmly believe, based on most polling data I have seen (on-line and scientific) that Bush is heading towards a nadir of support in the mid-30s. I think his job approval numbers will be there by the election, if not sooner. I think these on-line numbers from yesterday reflect that.

This means that 35% support is still inflated, since it reflects perhaps 60% FReeper support at best.

I don't think so. The left has become quite organized and far surpasses the influence of FR at this point. Most of the popular lefty blogs in addition to DU encourage poll voting. And Atrios has more hits than even DU.

I think he had around a 20% approval rating. I think that's as low as it can go.

78% said "My opinion is the same -- I support the President's strategy in Iraq." Why do they even BOTHER to try to portray themselves as "fair and balanced?"

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

If his support is over 25 percent I'd be shocked.

I think those three polls were being freeped on both sides--RW freepers keeping the LW freepers from pushing the poll down into negative numbers. I figure that if Al Gore could get negative-16,000 votes in Florida in 2000, an online poll can go into negative numbers too.

Let's break this into fifths.

One-fifth of the country is freepers. Not all of them are on FR, Lucianne, CU or whatever, but 20 percent of the country is the kind of hardcore Republican that would support Bush even if he went on television and butchered live puppies with a chef's knife. Half of them are single-issue Christians, the other half are liberal haters. We'll never convert them, so just delete their "Bush is the greatest president in history" emails and go on with your life.

One fifth is hardcore Republicans. They believe the mantra of Reaganism, but some of them see this particular Republican can't govern. They would vote for Barry Goldwater if he was still alive. They did vote for Nixon. They can be converted if the shit gets deep enough, and it's up to their navels now.

One fifth is moderates. Neither Republican nor Democrat, they believe in a sound fiscal policy and limited government. None of these people believe Bush is capable of either, but will vote for him if the Democrat can't produce a more sustainable policy. In the 1996 election there was a group calling itself "Republicans for Clinton." They noted that the economy was good, government was about the right size, and that anyone who could do that was a good Republican no matter what they called themselves. "Republicans for Clinton" belong to this fifth. If Kerry looks better than Bush, they'll vote for him.

The fourth quintile is Progressives. These are not-so-liberal liberals. I don't need to describe what a Progressive is; we're either that or the next group. None of these people will vote for Bush but all are willing to let the next election get rid of him.

And finally we have Liberals. It is an odd mishmash of Sierra Clubbers, Greenpeacers, PETA activists, vegans, NARAL members and Veterans Against the Iraq War. Very politically active, very attuned to the current situation in Washington, and very much willing to impeach Bush right now.

If Bush is pulling 28 percent by August, I'll be shocked. And I'll be even more shocked if the national Republican Party doesn't tell this idiot to pull an LBJ and get out of the race.

That would mean the GOoPers would have to set up some kind of primary process VERY late in the game, and the likely candidate would probably be no more likely to win as Bush would at 28% support. Kerry would then be the new Nixon without the "southern strategy."

Part of the repug spin machine here is propping up his pole numbers, especially after his "press conference." We need to keep in mind that the psy-ops boys want to continually demoralize the Dems by showing us how popular our leader is, whether that's actually true or not.

... involve a heck of a lot of extrapolation. All polls are just a limited sampling with many, many assumptions and few controls.

Call my original post a "hunch" if you will. I have long felt that Bush's core support is 30-35%, and that his "approval" will eventually fall to near that. I base this on every bit of polling data I have ever seen on Bush, scientific and otherwise. These on-line poll results simply agree with my "hunch".

Bush will be averaging 35-40% approval by election time (in all "scientific" polling). Bank on it.

I'd say that's a good sample.

winning.

Live Vote
If the presidential election were held this week, who would you vote for? * 207112 responses

George W. Bush
38%

John Kerry
59%

Ralph Nader
3%