if * wins a second term, how likely is impeachment, realistically?

Even having lived through one already, I still am kind of fuzzy on how exactly an impeachment happens.

It's become a liberal cliche to talk of impeaching Bush, but being entirely realistic, what is the likelihood of it?

the likelihood is zero.

By that time, they'll be scared witless.

Remember, only the rich will get richer. The states, the people, the environment will all get poorer. And who will there be to blame? Only Congress will be standing for election.

The rage will build to violence at which point Bush will declare some violent protestor an "enemy non-combatant." The dear boy won't be able to resist. That will NOT go down well.

Inevitably, George will default on US treasury obligations. If he even looks like he's doing that, look for rich guys to take him out.

Articles of impeachment need only the House to approval, I believe
by simple majority.

At that time the person is impeached but not convicted.

A trial is held in the Senate, with the Senators acting as jury
and the Chief Justice acting as judge and a committee of House
members acting as prosecutors.

To convict, the Senate would have to pass by a 2/3 majority.

However, given that the repugs have control of both houses of
Congress, the realistic possibility of Bush being REMOVED from
office is exactly zero. Even if the Dems win back the Senate and
the House, while still losing the Presidential race (VERY unlikely),
the odds of a Democratic super majority in the Senate is still zero.

I think that the only way this could happen with repugs voting for
it is if there existed two or three video tapes (along with witnesses)
of Bush / Bandar meeting where they discuss paying for Osama to
do 9/11.

Impeachment is a political act. Without a majority in the House of Reps, it will never fly; without a clear majority in the Senate, it will never get him out of office.

IF Bush 'wins' this year, he will have some 'coattails'; the Repubs will probably gain seats in the House and Senate. It would take either a blatant, obvious crime that even the Repubs would condemn, or a increadible 2006 campaign to get the Repubs out of power in both the House and Senate.

And his debt-ridden treasury is at crisis point. It's either inflation, stagflation, or Georgie gonna default.

The politics and the rah rah war ain't nothing to what the boy is doing to our money.

And stocks that show profit with no job creation only make CEOs rich. No one else will profit. No, not the stockholders either.

What matters is that we all start making a LOT of noise, and continue to call and write our legislators in DC.

Part of the problem is that we just gripe among ourselves, and worry about whether it's realistic, instead of kicking up some dust in the faces of those who should be taking action.

If enough of us were to keep hammering away that we expect to see charges filed, and impeachment proceedings begun, and state WHY, then the uproar would cause some movement in this stalemate. As long as we quietly acquiesce, the status quo is safe.

Kanary

unless he's caught with a live boy/dead girl, it just ain't happening.
Or possibly if he raises taxes. that would probably fracture his single-issue taxcut voters (idiot scum).

and as the Clinton years showed us, getting impeached ain't the same as being convicted, so even if impeachment happened, only a conviction would remove him from office.

then again, with a second "win", herr bushler would be unfettered by reelection concerns, and may just let his ego run away with him, in which case who knows what impeachable atrocities he might commit. that's not to say that he hasn't already.

What can be worse than lying to get your country into war against a country that did you no harm and which had been disarmed by the international community, a war against international law, resulting in the mass murder of roughly 10,000 civilians, and 40,000 soldiers whose only crime was defending their country against an illegal, immoral, dishonest invasion. And which has resulted in the deaths of 700 of your own people, missing limbs and other horrifying injuries for another 18,000 and the eternal emnity of a people whose resources you need for survival.

Not only will that not get an impeachment, but most of the opposition supports what he did.

You are right.........sad with all deaths and destruction he has caused that people can still support him.

Halliburton's going to turn honest?

Nothing good can come of invading Iraq. We told him that. Now he's finding out. He's desperately trying to keep it from exploding just at election time.

These people don't like invaders. They hate us more than they hate each other.

And yet, George is still making noise about Syria and Iran. He can't do that without a draft. He can't do it without an impeachment.

But George is getting his instructions from a higher power and he doesn't give a shit what Americans think.

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

I assume that Kerry voted for the Iraq War partly because he actually believed that Saddam had or was trying to get WMD.

Bush would never be impeached simply for invading Iraq. That's not the point. If he were to be impeached, it would be for one or more of the following reasons:

-- lying to the American public about the reasons for invading Iraq
-- malicious negligence of duty in stopping the terrorists from pulling off 9/11
-- outing Valerie Plame

I think impeachment is not very likely and a conviction is even less likely, but Kerry's vote for IWR has absolutely zero to do with my reason for thinking so.

then we're all FUBARD. Impeachment? That will be the LEAST of our worries!

might as well forget it, if chimp gets another 4 years we have bigger things to worry about than trying to impeach him. :scared: :cry:

In order to even float a bill of impeachment out of the judicial committee and onto the floor for a vote, your party has to have some say within that committee. As long as Tom "bugman" DeLay from Sugarland makes the House his personal bitch, he will never appoint a chairman to the judicial committee who would allow serious discussion of such an act, let alone a floor vote.

The limiting factor for likelihood of impeachment is the chance of retaking the House. It's that simple.

Impeachment proceedings have to come from the House, which is firmly RW repuk, and then be voted on by 2/3ds of the Senate. Bush could machine gun a bus load of Baptist Tourists from an orphanage in front of the White House on live TV and not be impeached.

and he's running scared and so is Cheney. They've committed crimes that reach the threshold of HC&M.. If it works on paper, you might even see the whole upper tier of gov resign, just like Nixon. But I doubt they would go quietly.

The ouster of Delay is in progress, unless you're not reading the papers. (He's fighting indictment in Texas)

edited to correct the header:

Bush never won his first term. Only Bush loyalists use the phraseology "reelect"-"wins a second term"

the Democrats would need control of the house (which they won't get) and some balls to attack him (which they don't have).

on edit: should he be, yes. Will he be, no

Impeachment has to originate in the House of Representatives. With Delay's redistricting and other changes, there is no chance for some time of the Democrats regaining control of the house. Even if Bush has no coattails, the House will remain in Repug control for some time.

If Chimp "wins re-election" (I prefer to call it "Maintains his ill-gotten hold on the WH"...) there will be no Impeachment, because Martial Law will be in place and Congress will be dissolved.

Bush will rule by Executive Order and never go out in publc, because "it's too dangerous", but never fear, Murkan sheeple, it's plenty safe to go to WalMart and the Mall to SHOP!

Ah, maybe you mean Bush will be too busy testifying errr, under oath <shudder> at Saddam's trial..

link

Repukes won't impeach him.

If Bush/Cheney become embroiled in a World Court scandal, they will have to step aside no matter what they say.