State Polls show Kerry is headed for a big win - Diebold be damned!

Assuming that 2/3 of the undecided voters go for the challenger, as is usually the case, then Kerry adds 4 points to the average Gore lead over Bush (from +2 to +6) in the following important states.

Kerry should win them all, except for CO, MO, NC, WV.
But I think he will take MO anyway. Mark Twain won't let Bush win it.

And Kerry is raising money at a record pace while Bush has shot half a load ($75 million).

Note: Gore + Bush < 100%, due to Nader et al.


State Polls............. Gore Bush Kerry Bush
Oregon:
Kerry 46% Bush 45%...... 47 47 52 48

California:
Kerry 51% Bush 40%...... 53 42 57 43

New Hampshire:
Kerry 47% Bush 45%...... 47 48 52 48

New Jersey:
Kerry 51% Bush 39%...... 56 40 58 42

West Virginia:
Bush 46% Kerry 41%...... 46 52 50 50

Colorado:
Bush 49% Kerry 44%..... 42 51 49 51

Florida:
Kerry 47% Bush 46%...... 49 49 52 48

Washington
Kerry 50% Bush 44%...... 50 45 54 46

Iowa
Kerry 51% Bush 41%...... 49 48 56 44

Minnesota
Kerry 47% Bush 44%...... 48 46 53 47

Missouri
Bush 49% Kerry 42%...... 47 50 48 52

Michigan
Kerry 48% Bush 44%...... 51 46 53 47

Ohio
Kerry 45% Bush 41%...... 46 50 55 45

Pennsylvania
Kerry 45% Bush 44%...... 51 46 52 48

California:
Kerry 53% Bush 44%...... 53 42 55 45

North Carolina:
Bush 51% Kerry 43%..... 43 56 47 53

Illinois:
Kerry 52% Bush 39%..... 55 43 58 42

Average................. 49.0 47.1 53 47

...so he can't be "Diebolded".

:-)

Will the Americans finally rise up, take to the the streets and demand that the Carlyle-Halliburton Administration be tried for treason?

Or will they just turn on their TV's, watch American Idol and vote for bad white singers?

AAUUURRGGHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!

:mad:

He may be good in a few years with some coaching, but not by a mile now.

people who vote the polls or believe them are defeating themselves.

They can't poll me because I dial up....When it is time to vote, I will use my intelligence and vote dems.

The polls and peter jennings drove the last election.....when they start reporting 3 hours before the west coast polls close....they are dooming us....

Look at the primaries....everyone voted for what the polls and electability......not the candidate.... some of you here...voted intelligently and voted for you candidate.....

just amazing all the polls..... I can't believe them.......

"Assuming that 2/3 of the undecided voters go for the challenger, as is usually the case, then Kerry adds 4 points to the average Gore lead over Bush (from +2 to +6) in the following important states."

Thats a big assumption! Has history always showed this to be the case significantly? Lets hope...

and can you post a link, plz?

I did not see that. Thanks.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/election_2004.htm

The revised final projected average numbers, after removing the first CA set, are:

Kerry:52.75
Bush: 47.25

:)

and it's looking good around here.

Bush can manipulate the system, again, to bamboozle us.

Kerry might make an idiot of himself, and thus cause undecided voters to go * or :puke: Nader.

Please don't assume how 2/3rds this does that and how Gore had 2 points over Bush and other fuzzy math.

Leave the bamboozling and fuzzy math to * and his ilk. They're good for nothing more and we need to hope people will see through it.

1. It is a fact: 2/3 undecided go to the challenger
2. These are the actual Gore/Bush percentages.
3. Kerry will NOT make a fool of himself.
4. Kerry will also raise MORE money. He actually is about equal to Bush right now.

You are right about one thing: Bush will try to steal it.

you impugn a poster by saying his/her "statement is fuzzy logic" and then state it's a fact that 2/3 undecided go to the challenger. Is that really a fact? You've been asked before to back it up. Your original statement was that 2/3 usually go to the challenger, now you say it's a fact that they go to the challenger. Doesn't that mean always? Which is it? This is important, because if it's only usually then your argument breaks down, and you aren't guilty of fuzzy logic, but of a lack of logic.

number going to the challenger more than a few times. I have not presented a link. True. Take it on faith. Why would I lie?

Always? I seem to recall reading that it has always happened.
But always means 100%. So I will be conservative and say usually.

If I find a link, I will post it.

Cheers
TIA

to overcome the Liebolding factor.

AND elect a DEM Congress by the same margin.

for an incumbent president.

Join the Tour de Feat Bush

TIA

And Wally O'Dell of Diebold better keep his dirty hands off!

TIA

BUT if they can't win what then? I don't think they'll leave peacefully. Just my opinion.

they can leave forcibly, if they insist...

Edit: wording.

TV COMMERCIALS?!?!?!??!?!?!

WHY HAVEN'T I SEEN ANY - REPEAT - ANY AT ALL?

I've sent that weenie money, THREE TIMES!

he really doesn't.

He's leading NOW without doing so. He's leading now even after Bush has dumped 70 million dollars worth of negative ads on him. He's leading now despite every fake scandal they've tried to throw at him.

Why waste his money now instead of closer to the election, when it matters, and when people are paying attention?

A lot of weird shit has gone down in that state.....

Probably why Twain was such a cynic and Truman had a short fuse - there's a lot of right-wing maroons there (probably in the southern part of the state) that the poor Dems have to put up with there.

I wanted to see the other states too.

TIA

We have a great Democrat Governor (Bredesen) and he has an approval rating in the 70's. I think he can and will help Kerry alot in this state.

TIA

If somebody could look into these it would be great.