My initial analysis of the Governor's race in CA

1. Arnold is not going to have the GOP field to himself. That is very good for us, because the GOP isn't unified.

2. Having McClintock, Simon, and Uberoth in the race will help direct crucial GOP votes away from Arnold. They are more conservative and the true believers will go with them and not Arnold.

3. The key wildcards I see are Issa and Riordan. From what little I've heard both men are NOT happy with Arnold jumping in. They both have "technically" endorsed Arnold, but the key question is how much they will "help"; or if, in their anger, they will "quietly" support McClintock, Simon, or Uberoth. Riordan is quite moderate so I assume that he will help Arnold; but, if he does "help" Arnold, it won't be that much. Issa will send his supporters to the conservative trio above in #2.

4. Garamendi is going to be a problem. He should drop out because he will take crucial votes. I see him as being an obstacle. The state party needs to get together TONIGHT and force him out of the race.

5. Arianna Huffington and Peter Camejo (G) could make the key difference here. The Greens could play a role. A strong Green turnout in Alameda and San Francisco counties could doom the Democrats.

Today I am somewhat more optomistic about the recall effort. I don't think the hard right will support Arnold. And without the hard right I don't see him getting ENOUGH independents and Democrats to win. But I do see Garamendi, Ariana Huffington, and the Greens taking just enough votes to catapault Arnold into Sacraemento.

What do you think?

I think Independents will go for Arianna or Arnold. They could still
vote no on recall first.

But I do hope that Garamendi drops out.

I hope others realize this as well. This is a dangerous and legitimate candidate for Gray Davis. I didn't care much for him as Insurance Commissioner, I do remember that much about him.

:grr:

:dem:

1. Agreed. However, Swarzenegger has the best chance of any Republican.

2. I haven't heard anything about Ueberoth. Nor do I believe he's a conservative in the McClintock vein.

3. Issa, as you know, dropped out and Riordan will not run as long as Swarzenegger is. Who Issa puts his money behind depends on how much on an ideologue he is. If he's really doctrinaire, he back McClintock or Simon; if he's got any pragamtic sense, he'll back Swarzenegger.

4. So far, Bustamante has gotten star billing and Garamendi is just there. He won't be much of a factor even if he stays in the race. It would be better if he got out.

5. Yes, but I will only vote for Arianna or Camejo if it appears either of them will be the most likely candidate to deny the Swarzenegger or any other Republican. Also, a large turn out in the Bay Area won't be so bad. Bay Area voters are more like to vote to reatain Davis.

I would rather have little to Greens coming out because they could vote yes on the first part. Maybe my thinking is wrong here but here are the scenarioes.

1. They vote no and they vote for Bustamente.
2. They vote yes and they vote for Bustamene.
3. They vote yes and they vote for Camejo.
4. They vote yes and they vote for Arianna.
5. They vote no and they vote for Garamendi.
6. They vote yes and they vote for Garamendi
7. They vote no and they vote for Camejo

1 and 2 are Greens, at this initial stage, that should be encouraged to come out. 3-7 are Greens that should not be targetted.

Handling the field plan for this campaign is going to be a really difficult task. Davis and the Dems have to be careful to not bring out the wrong voters.

Like Democrats, they're an independent lot.

Unlike the Democratic leadership, the Green leadership respects the diversity of there members and don't try to tell them what to do. They want input. That is why the Green Party took no official stand on the recall. Even Camjeo, who favors it, gave it at most tacit support until it qualified.

Keep in mind, Carlos, I am a registered Green and I don't necessarily fit your mold of how a Green votes. As I have said all along, unless the proponents of recall give me some clear and convincing evidence of serious malfeasance on Davis' part, I will vote No on the recall question.

I can't imagine a Green who votes for a mainstream Democrat voting for Garamendi. If they go that route, it will be to block the Republicans. Unless he's got some skeliton in his closet we don't know about, that's Bustamante, not Garamendi.

Garamendi presents the same problems for Bustamante that Ueberroth presents for Swartzenegger. Each pair offers much the same thing ideologically. The difference is that Ueberroth offers experience that Swarzenegger does not, where the difference in terms of experience between Bustamante and Garamendi is at best a wash, if it does not slightly favor Bustamante. If I were a moderate Republican, I'd be hoping that Ueberroth becomes the more serious candidate.

Something I would like to criticize about your analysis is that it seems to assume that any given voter is a zero-sum game. What is most important is to turn out as many voters who will vote No as possible, regardless of who any one of them will support as a replacement candidate. Second, try to turn out as many voters who will vote to deny the Republicans as possible, regardless of how they will vote on the recall. In the end, opponents of Republicans will gravitate to one candidate.

I am hoping Democrats will turn out in record numbers to vote against the recall and vote for Cruz Bustamante just in case. I think Arianna and Camejo are spoilers and could ruin everything.

However, if the unions are uniting behind Davis, he's got a chance.

I hope so, but if Davis doesn't make it and Arianna and Camejo let Arnie squeak in before Bustamante, I'm gonna be pissed off again at the Greens.

right now.

...a strong Lieberman supporter-- NOT much of a recommendation in my book. Peter Camejo, on the other hand, represents virtually everything I'd like to see in California's governor. Spoiler? Hell, as far as I'm concerned he's the best choice for the job--BASED ON WHAT I KNOW NOW. So I'll likely be voting NO on the recall, but casting my replacement vote for Camejo.

Lieberman is the anti-christ so anyone remotely connected to him must be the Devil too. Talk about the unfairness of guilt by association.

If someone is a Lieberman SUPPORTER, that means their own politics are in alignment.

Eloriel

the fascist wing of the GOP is trying to destroy. It has already shot holes in our nation's constitution with the last election, making a mockery of it and now they are trying it in California.

According to the CA constitution, Bustamante is supposed to be the successor of the governor, if he is no longer able to govern. The way this recall vote is set up, another person could be voted in his place so since he has placed himself on the ballot, I think we should vote for him to save our state's laws as they stand.

If we end up with a candidate that the majority of Californians don't want, we are going to turn into a right wing-nut version of an American totalitarian state.

Rememember we have many Hispanics living in California and I know many who would love to have a Hispanic Governor in office. FYI, I am not supporting the recall but looking at options at keeping a REPUG out.

because Bustamante says he's not supporting the recall, and that voters should vote against the recall, but for him. But Hispanic voters would want to get Bustamante into office, so why would they vote no on the recall?

Do ballots really count if they're marked NO, but vote for a candidate?

you can vote no, but still vote for a replacement if it is succesful.

and vote for Bustamante. They're not going to want to vote not to put him in office.

After their car tax tripled under Davis how many will vote to keep him?

and is now forced to raise it because Repubs blocked a stinking fucking sales tax......with the help of Tom McClintock who never approves a budget...please make an effort get your facts straight.

that Arnold is far left of McClintock, Simon, and Uberoth and would probably take more votes away from the leftist candidates than them.

1. We need to get Garamendi out of the race. I read some of his comments today and he sounds somewhat belligerent. If we can't get rid of him, I would not be surprised to see him start attacking Cruz, just based on the tone of his initial comments. That may be a wrong guess, but Democrats do have a history of being their own worst enemy and I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen here.

2. Davis. We need to get Davis to support the "No on recall, Yes on Cruz" platform. Davis controls a lot of money, a decent amount of media coverage, and a lot of potential union votes and activism. If we could get Davis and Cruz to work together, I think it would greatly increase our chances of winning.

3. Most Californians don't know who Cruz is, but they do know Arnold. We need to get Bill Clinton and a bunch of politicians and celebrities to work right away on increases people's awareness of Bustamante. With 500 people on the ballot, name awareness is going to be everything. The media is already ignoring Bustamante, so he needs to bring in some big name people who can force the media to cover him. Bill Clinton would be a great start.

I am starting to think it is possible to beat Arnold, especially once he starts stating his opinions on the issues, but Democrats are going to have to have a solid plan and fall into line.

It's likely to be a huge factor that Davis tripled the car tax, (which is really just putting it back at the amount it was before we got a tax cut on it). Bustamante and ahh-null are against raising it. Probably the other candidates are too.

Right there, if you recall Davis, you save a couple of absolutely-identifiable bucks. I think this is going to be difficult to overcome.

I realize that you are looking at this from a "horse race" POV,
but I thing this whole thing is turning in to a huge circus/fiasco/joke. Its a laughingstock! The Repugs who brought this on, and allowed AH-nuld( have you seen his nude photos yet?) will be vilified. They opened the Pandora's box of the Weekly World News weird. Anything the Dems do will look serious and mature on the very face, but what they should do is just step back and let the clowns climb out of the lttle car.

It is instead a serious incursion into peoples lives, those whose job it is to serve us and those of us who depend on government to keep the state running.

but some where between Gary Coleman and Larry Flint I just started busting a gut. And now the Terminator? (have you seen the photos of him smoking pot?) Even ISSA dropped out in shame. I'm sorry man, the people who started this thing are responsible. This is what happens when you subvert the political process. We should laugh them all to hell.

Who here doesn't believe that he got a little call from Rove telling him to withdraw?

Right now, everything hinges on what the physical ballot will look like.

Let me clarify that statement. This thing in California is completely dependent upon how many candidates get all the way to certification. You have hundreds who have filed, but the final hurdles will need to be overcome. $3500 is not "chump change" so Joe Sixpack is going to have a tough time getting on the ballot. Getting 10,000 signatures in the timeframe required is also a big hurdle, but can be done by some dedicated "Joe SixPacks" and does demonstrate a substantial number of people indicate enough of an interest to possibly vote for them.

Now think about it. If 20,000,000 people vote in the election (lower than the last gubernatorial elction in CA), and 200 candidates are filed, the magic number is .5% of the vote or 100,000 votes. That's the number of votes necessary to demonstrate you have the potential to win. That's not a lot of votes and how many of these fringe candidates can muster that number? If Joe SixPack in Centerville, CA with a voting population 20,000 people can convince them that he is worthy of a shot at being governor of the entire state and will help out Centerville, CA, he's already 1/5th of the way to the magic number.

Names are important here too. I saw that a person named Michael Jackson has made the ballot all the way to certification today. What sort of wild card is that and how many people will actually vote for the Michael Jackson on the ballot simply because the name is Michael Jackson? I've also heard that two (count them two) Gray Davis's have filed the beginning paperwork. What would two different "Gray Davis"'s on the ballot do to the results?

This thing is total anarchy and no amount of polling and/or punditry will ever be able to call this thing.

Seriously think about this. We are in a situation were less than a quarter million people stand a pretty good chance of deciding the Chief Executive of the 3rd largest economy in the world.

Chaos reigns.....

$3,500 times 300 candidates is $1,050,000. Will it be used toward the estimated 65 million this phony election will cost? Or, which fiscal black hole will it sink into?

It would fall into the black hole of the California General Fund.

And realize, many of those who filed are actually going for the 10,000 signature method.

I'm calling this a total TOSS-UP until the field is formally unveiled tonight and tomorrow.

The California business community is very concerned about the recall and not supportive of it. They have already taken many hits due to the Bush economy. There has been no active campaign for or against yet.

Once that gets in full swing it will be interesting to see who scares the shit out of voters more or who inspires them to get off their butt and act against the recall.

Instability is worse for business than a not so popular governor.

nt

I always heard that Davis was too friendly with business? That was one of the reasons Democrats supposedly signed the recall. :shrug:

nt

The point of my post was that the propaganda against Davis, and a lot of it was posted on DU, was that he was too close to business interests. Well, all politicians are, I think. However, this little smear campaign about our Governor was spread a little too gleefully in the media, no doubt by the right-wing media machine. As a former business person myself, I never favored Republicans because they did very little for the small business owner. I think you know that businesses are pretty split as well between the two parties. I do think that corporations that benefit from corporate welfare, privitization, etc. etc. would favor Republicans though.

Local business leaders are mum on the recall issue
BRADLEY J. FIKES and WYATT HAUPT
Staff Writers

Saying they prefer to focus on California's budget crisis, most members of the business community in San Diego and Southwest Riverside County are staying out of the proposed recall of Gov. Gray Davis.

Chambers of commerce and political groups up and down the state have taken sides on the recall of Davis, a Democrat. The Los Angeles Chamber of Commerce opposes the recall. And Congressman Darrell Issa, a Republican from Vista, funded the petition drive to get the recall on the ballot.

But despite their exasperation with California's problems ---- which recall backers blame on Davis ---- nearly all the local chambers of commerce and trade organizations are steering clear of the recall issue. These groups either don't want to get involved in a political question or believe that fixing the economy takes precedence.

The list is long

Those contacted by the North County Times who said they are not taking a stand on the recall include the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce, and the chambers of commerce for Encinitas, Oceanside, Escondido, Solana Beach and San Marcos.

http://www.republicansagainsttherecall.com/news-nctimes-071303.htm

http://www.cbrt.org/Press_Releases/Recall%20Effort.pdf

The California Business Roundtable, representing the state's biggest corporations, recently issued a statement against the recall: ''California needs its principal public officials to be focused fundamentally on restoring vitality to the economy and stability to the state's budget and financial position.''

The state budget, with a $38 billion shortfall, underlies much of the widespread discontent with Davis and the Legislature.

The budget deficit is the heart of the argument to recall Davis, but he didn't create it by himself.

A recall offers a way to vent frustrations, but then what? With Davis or a successor as governor, a wrenching combination of loans, cuts and taxes will still have to be embraced by two-thirds of the legislators.

The governor and legislators are getting
http://www.montereyherald.com/mld/mcherald/news/editorial/6099503.htm

.........of California and a fan of Ariana let me say that she likely cannot win. Her voice alone will do her in. She is smart as hell and can take on anyone in a debate but California folks like simple, easy, lay back. Especially in the late summer/fall. I think we have to hope like hell that the recall fails because what I think is that Rove has this well planned out. He knows that a cluttered field of Republicans will likely doom Arnold. Expect to see all the viable candidates that could hurt Arnold "pull out" like Issa did. There will be lots of deals made behind closed doors and likely a few serious threats. But in the end the field will narrow at least on the right.

Bob
Santa Barbara

If the Dems had any real long term visionary organizational ability they should just take over the Greens like the Pukes took over the Reform party. Does any informed person not think Pat Puke-cannon is an operative for the Evil Empire? Just one more time, Gore and Bush are equally evil..... Here's a new one to learn; ex Marine Davis is a bigger incompetent whore than Hitler homeboy Arnold, one more time....

is mentioning is that Davis is polling at 42% of the vote, 7% undecided.
He feels Arnold's nos. peak this week.....He said check back in September, though (hey, never know what Rove will pull). Eleanor Clift said that "with a gun put to her head, she'd say that Arnold will win!"

Blankely, the creep, said it's Arnold's to lose and we'll know in two weeks if he has the political skills necessary. McLaughlin said Arnold is politically astute enough to "stay away from the fine print".....yeah, that's ALL that Republicans do.....

Many inside and outside California are jumping to this conclusion. Right now our internal polling numbers show the recall is DEAD EVEN, and we haven't begun to mobilize our base.

No, the main thrust of our efforts is to DEFEAT the recall, thereby making national republican strategists leery of hijacking populist process in the future. And we shall prevail.

Those of you who wish to help, please email me at LMFinancialP@hotmail.com

I want to help but I won't be in CA. How can I donate $$?

Arnold won't get all of the Repug vote because he's too liberal, but will it matter? With all these candidates, I think managing 40% of the vote will definately secure the victory. I think he can get a lot a independents and people who are not political and don't usually vote. This scares me to death. What if he brings in tons of new voters, and then they stay with him and the repugs, and make Cali a competative state in 2004? Does anyone think that can happen? I'm frightened. :scared:

Californians obviously didn't have it right by recalling Davis! They should effing lead the campaign to recall George Bush. After all, what did that little turd say when CA was in the energy crisis???

There should be no recall. This is the only point.

I can't believe how many folks here are going to vote for anything but "No recall." Any Democrat who enters the race is stabbing an elected Democrat in the back and helping the far right to destroy the system. You will be legitimizing a Republican coup d'état. Every Democrat in the country should stand shoulder to shoulder with Gray Davis otherwise they'll get the idea that it's ok to do this in the future.

The Republicans have done what they do best, dragged Califonia down into the mud.

It would be great to say that there is no chance Davis is going to lose, but turn on the TV. All you will see is them telling people to vote for Arnold because he's so great.

The only logical strategy at this point is to ask people to vote no on the recall, but also give them a real alternative to Arnold. The media hates Davis and loves Arnold, that is something we have to deal with.

Several polls taken this week have shown somewhat more than half the electorate supporting the recall and about four-in-ten supporting Davis. On the election of a potential successor, the poll showed that Schwarzenegger had support of about one-quarter of the electorate and that the margin by which Bustamante trailed him - several percentage points - was roughly equivalent to Garamendi’s support.

http://www.mercedsun-star.com/news/newsview.asp?c=69502

let thing settle for a week before you put stock in any of the polls. Things are just to fluid.

He is the most important person here. The most important block of voters are the ones who vote against the recall. Even if the "NO" votes end up being 45% (which I believe is the current projection), how those votes split will probably determine the election. I think that the majority of them will be people who are bothered by the process, and will feel uncomfortable about voting a new person in. Their only real choice, since they can't vote for Davis, would be Bustamonte. Add to that the number of people who directly support Bustamonte and vote against Davis, I think there will be a plurality, if not a majority, of voters.

Recall Question #1 (Should Gray Davis be recalled?) is a total TOSS-UP at this time...I say it's about an even chance either way.

1.-3. I concur.

4. We do need a unified front...NO on the Recall, YES on Bustamante. Although I doubt that Garamendi will get too many votes, the difference between a win and a loss could be extremely slim.

5. Alameda, San Francisco, and Marin Counties should be the strongest for the Greens...the "Nader 2000" effect shouldn't be that strong, but the closeness of Question #2 means that like FL in 2000, every vote counts.

One thing that worries me is that people who are usually apathetic (and don't vote) may vote for Schwartzenegger for the notoriety factor...although he is far less of a serious (policy-wise) candidate than Jesse Ventura (and that's saying something), I could see the same "Ventura effect" happening in the recall.

Currently 17 candidates have qualified for the recall:

John W. Beard (R-Los Angeles)
Ed Beyer (R-Orange)
Peter Miguel Camejo (G-Sacramento)
Gerold Lee Gorman (D-Contra Costa)
Jim Hoffmann (R-San Joaquin)
Edward Thomas Kennedy (D-Trinity)
David E. Kessinger (D-Riverside)
Eric Korevaar (D-San Diego)
Robert C. Mannheim (D-Los Angeles)
Paul Mariano (D-Contra Costa)
Tom McClintock (R-Ventura)
Carl A. Mehr (R-San Diego)
J. Leonard Padilla (I-Sacramento)
Charles Chuck Pineda Jr. (D-Sacramento)
Ned Fenton Roscoe (L-Napa)
Darrin H. Scheidle (D-San Diego)
Brian Tracy (I-San Diego)

Valid as of 4:30 PM yesterday.
http://www.ss.ca.gov/elections/recall_cand_status.pdf

Bustamente and Garamendi?

Bustamante should get most of the Democrats' votes, but Garamendi will siphon off a few. It won't be much IMHO, but it could be enough to stop Bustamante from winning.

Simon already lost last year. Huffington isn't all that well known here, especially with all these people already on the ballot. Camejo is not very well known and has very, very little support (I happen to be a Green).

Swarzenegger is widely perceived as a moderate, which large numbers of people are comfortable with, however Bush will also perhaps campaign for Swarzenegger, thereby costing a number of votes coming from those who would have otherwise seen him as moderate. Garamendi may or may not be a problem and isn't known as widely known as Bustamente'.

Expect Bustamente' to make some very big inroads against Swarzenegger however. The Latino population is huge. L.A. has the biggest hispanic population in the world outside of Mexico City, Mexico. I'm certain that there will be a lot of campaigning in Southern California.

Ah-no may still win this one but it will be a lot closer than people think.

I really do.

At least Arianna and Camejo have some kind of political track record. Schwarzenegger does not.

Do you suppose Davis will slip Ueberroth some money in an effort to split the moderate GOP vote? Frankly, if I had to choose just between the two of them, I'd go for Ueberroth over Schwarzenegger based solely on his experience in public service. It would be an easy case to make.

Don't vote for da Girly-man Ahnold. His running makes California a laughing stock. lol

We may as well elect Hanz and Franz.