The Beautiful Ohio Poll. They call it a tie; I call it Victory.

Kerry 46
Bush 44
Nader 5
Undecided 5

Assume Kerry gets 2 Nader, Bush 1
Assume Kerry gets 3 Undecided, Bush 2

Then its
Kerry 51%
Bush 47%
Nader 2%

Diebold?


http://www.ipr.uc.edu/PDF/OhioPoll/2004_Prez_032604.pdf

And he's the candidate the voters know (and i say that loosely). Shrub is in big trouble.

Why not?

Even if it's 60-40 one way according to polls and 60-40 the other way on the day of the election, without paper ballots, we can't prove anything.

If Kerry gets 53% in OH, that's a big win, but Bush can steal it and claim that it was within the MOE - margin of error. Chances would be about 1 out of 15 that he won it fairly.

On the other hand, the probability is less than 1 out of 1,000 that Bush could go from 40% in the final poll to 50% of the vote.

An Ohio win would be great! Any senate seats open?

Eric Fingerhut is running against him and could use our support.

My fingers are crossed!

http://www.wgoeshome.com

"O-H-I-O that's the riddle!" ... Sorry. I was an Ohio State baby.

you are forgetting MOE which is more than both the current lead and even your lead after adjustments. Kerry should have a good shot at Ohio but it is no done deal and he has to actually get a campaign going here.

Its only May. And Kerry is leading in Ohio. And he has not even started an organization there yet. Nor has he spent squat to produce any ads.

Bush has. He's spent $75 million. And what has he got to show for it?

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Bush is beating NADER by a grand total of 2 points.

Kerry 56%
Bush 22%
Nader 20%

That is the demographic which Kerry must go after.

Yaa Kerry is just the guy to wake up young people. DLC "New" Democrat, voted for NAFTA, voted for Plan Colombia, voted for all the Iraq stuff, does not support bring the troops home in Iraq and so on and so forth.

I'm 30 years old and the grassroots working people have to coalesce behind someone who represents them. 30 years ago, someone with Kerry's record would have been the candidate people from the right would have been voting for (with the exception of support for gay unions and maybe one or two more things). I don't know where the line people draw for the Democrats is where they say "no farther right or you lose my vote" but they've lost it from me. Kerry the compromiser isn't going to waken anyone up.

Do you have another choice? Life is not perfect. Neither is Kerry.
But the difference between Kerry and Bush should be obvious. In fact, the difference between ABB and Bush should be obvious.

corruption than anyone else in modern history?

Guess you're not interested in honest government. Or a healthier environment.

favorite choice (28yo here) and he does little to excite most of my friends. BUT-- like I always tell them, it is OUR fault we don't have candidates who court us and our issues. When voters over 65 are 3 times more likely to vote, who do you think politicians pay attention to.

If we voted like our grandparetns, pot and gay marriage would be legal.

Most of the voter education group I work for is made up of teams of very young voters. They go out and recruit more workers and register more progressive voters. We are adding to the numbers every day. It's looking very good in Ohio.

My prediction. If he gets 2% as a write in, I'll eat Tucker Carlson's shoe.

The Bush/Cheney campaign should have at least that many volunteers/families of volunteers. They'll just get their entire Ohio campaign organization to get Nader on the ballot.

It would be great if Kerry wins Ohio. Just take Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida- whoever wins 2 out of those 3 wins the election, I feel. Kerry could win all 3, but even if he wins just 2, he'll be fine.

Soon, only the hard core Pubs will remain with Bush, even some of the Fundies are having 3 rd thoughts re Bush. He is losing his base support to the point of facing a LANDSLIDE in Nov.

The Bush House of Cards is Toast TOAST and on its way down.

Come, we go eat French Toast.