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First off, there are very few examples upon which to call: The Undeclared War with France was over by the time of the 1800 election, the War of 1812 didn't span an election, the Mexican War was a tidy enterprise of Imperial thievery engineered by a man who openly pronounced early in his term that he had no interest in a second term, and the war didn't span an election cycle either.
Yes, Lincoln did win the 1864 election, but it was a bit of a struggle, even though well after Vicksburg and Gettysburg had pretty much shown what the outcome would be. The Spanish-American War was a lickety-split bit of larceny, also not spanning an election cycle. Wilson ran for re-election in 1916 promising to keep us out of the two year-old World War 1, even though election day was a year and a half after the sinking of the Lusitania, so this doesn't fit the bill either; indeed, promising to keep us free from this ugly entanglement was key to re-election. FDR won a wartime re-election, but by that time, we'd already turned the tide in a very obvious way in both theatres.
Harry Truman was defeated by Estes Kefauver in the New Hampshire primary in 1952, thus causing "Give 'em Hell" Harry to abandon his bid for a second full term; the ongoing Korean War was a major issue, and this is a direct refutation to your contention. Gene McCarthy beat LBJ in the New Hampshire primary of 1968, specifically over the issue of Vietnam, and Johnson dropped out; this is huge: LBJ's 1964 election was one of the biggest blowouts in the history of Presidential elections. These last two are specifically the dynamic of which you speak.
So, sorry to bust your chops on this one, but it IS a big issue. Roosevelt had some competition in '44, but he'd saved this country, pulled us out of the depression and was simultaneously leading a booming economy and winning the biggest war in human history. Lincoln, likewise had some serious trouble even though the war was very much a foregone conclusion by that time too.
War sucks. Mercifully, given a little exposure to it even from a distance, most people agree on that point. Gallivanting across the globe to smite people who had nothing to do with our major problems and DOING IT BADLY will not sit well for long with people.
The "inevitability" and "momentum" are tools to keep us wringing our collective hands, and they have very little basis in reality.
As for the ending question, I think they're going to do what they always do: do exactly as they're still doing. We can't give that oil to anyone, so we have to stay and make it ours. Some things are complex, but that's not one of them
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