state by state polls

http://2.004k.com/

This shows New Mexico is still in the Bush column! Yikes!
I am going to have to drag myself away from Air America
Radio and see if I can't convert a few Republicans. ;)

All we can hope is that Nader voters coming to their senses will help us out.

Bush is winning the close ones this far out because he is the incumbent who gets the swing voters by default. Most voters aren't going to start paying attention to the race for months yet. At that time some of the swing voters will choose Bush while others will change from their default pick (Bush) to Kerry.

That is why everybody considers the closeness of the polls today as bad news for Bush.

So it will be the swing voters, not the fringe who decide this election. Personally, I hope that Nader does even better than last time, and that Kerry wins handily anyway. Maybe then folks on DU will stop believing that Green Party voters are any more important to the Democratic Party than Republican Party voters.

I don't think Kerry is what most swing voters were hoping for out of the Democrats and I honestly don't see Kerry swaying alot of swing voters. And to be perfectly honest I don't see him winning this election. I really hope I'm wrong but damnit this is an uphill fight.

He wasn't anti-war like Dean, so he doesn't appeal to moderates who were strongly against the war. He's not seen as a big advocate for the working man like Edwards and he's very rich himself so he doesn't appeal to mods on that basis. He speaks out against the deficit but wants to use tax hike revenues to fund more spending. I don't think people much give a darn about the environment or alternative fuels. People think the UN sucks and involving them in Iraq won't do anything. I don't think alot of people see much difference between him and shrub and I don't think he's doing a good job now or will he ever of making these differences crystal clear. Instead we're going to talk about throwing away medals and flags over coffins and get nowhere doing it. Sorry but I'm just real pessimistic right now.

"In the once heavily Republican collar counties - Mason-Dixon considers them to be DuPage, McHenry, Lake, Will, Kankakee, Kane, Grundy and Kendall counties - Bush leads, but only by a 48 to 39 percent margin, with 11 percent undecided. Bush leads 45 to 38 percent in central Illinois, with 15 percent undecided. Bush also leads in southern Illinois, 44 to 39 percent, with 16 percent undecided. "

Once outside of Chicago, you have about 50% of the population dispersed and they're STILL supporting Bush. The "undecideds" are probably already leaning Republican support equating to voting for Bush, but moreso because they've always voted that way, they feel secure about sticking with an incumbant.

Ohio is a populous state with lots of electoral votes. If Kerry can add Ohio and Florida as wins, he doesn't have to worry too much about Arizona and New Mexico.

Then again, if Bush keeps making stupid mistakes, maybe Kerry will end up doing better than any of us hopes for.

I just don't want to live in a Red State. ;)

Long time reader, first time poster, three years of outrage...VERY glad to have found this site!

The data underscore the incredible relevance of Florida and Ohio...I'm thinking that Kerry can take Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin (these are the under 10% differential states)...other views??

Let your outrage flow...

but New Hampshire was the only one on your list that went Bush the last time so that doesn't help much. What we really need to put us over the top is to keep those(which is in doubt) and add Ohio, Missouri, W. Virginia, Nevada, Arkansas, Florida(not all of those but some of those) They don't even have to win all their swing states they got last time. We have to hold onto our swing states and win some of theirs, and I just have no confidence in being able to do that right now.

Also welcome to DU!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

with tobacco like on the Simpsons and make "tomacco"? Just kidding... Welcome!

This thing is winable, but I think it will be difficult. I'm encouraged to send money to Kerry. Hard work ahead.

Look at the date column. Many of the percentages are from 2000 Bush vs Gore results and are useless for this election.

I saw it. He says this is a "work in progress" & I am hoping he keeps up the good work. We will be needing this info all the way up until election day.

when two of the three polls show Kerry leading?

Looks like that poll is from April 4.

The site is trending towards uselessness. :P