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I don't know what this thought is worth but I thought I would put it out there:
Zimbardo's discussion of what happened to the guards in the SPE suggests that they broke down evenly into 3 different categories: the 'good' guards, the 'bad' guards, and the 'play by the rules' guards. There were nine of them, so perhaps that helped even the numbers out (3/3/3).
I was thinking this morning: since 9/11, with the 'war on terrorism,' we have all been encouraged to think of ourselves as policing the entire world. If, in Bush's America, the world is our prison, and Americans are the guards in charge of punishing the 'evildoers' before they rise up and destroy us, and we are responding the same way Zimbardo's subjects responded, that might explain the way the polls seem to break down:
30% of us have become the 'good' guards--the people who recognize that the system is unfair and do what we can to even it out without ever really questioning the system itself. This would be Bush's core opposition.
30% of us have become the 'bad' guards--the people who love having power over everyone else, and enthusiastically embrace the injustices because that gives them the chance to indulge their own sick fantasies. This would be Bush's 'base.'
30% of us are just trying to get on with life and not think too hard about the system we're part of. This would be the swing vote/non-vote.
You figure the 'good' and 'bad' guards are not moving from their positions, and the swing vote/nonvote people are basically going to go with whoever they think will be safest.
There are plenty of ways you could attack the analogy, of course, and I'm not suggesting it's accurate in any kind of literal way. But it is interesting to me as a metaphor.
C ya,
The Plaid Adder
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