The KEYS TO THE RACE/ Important info/Sosnik-Clinton Pol. Dir.

Mark Penn, Dem pollster, speech to the DLC...repeat from Friday...

Said Convention can give the 14 pt. bounce that is typical ..

Basically, says Kerry isn't known. His approval/disapproval is 27/33% with the middle not knowing him that well...Bush still at the 49% range approval, but way down.

BIGGEST WEAKNESS....security issues, a plan....with being from Massachusetts WAY down on the list...
Kerry behind on security and values by 20 pts. Ahead on economy by 20 points...so, it's not just the economy stupid.

A lot of ground to make up on the values...biggest problem is the security voters which are mostly Republican (!!!!!)

47% of swing voters, economy voters leading 39-18 many independents, moderates

Security voters, Bush leads ...many of them are SENIORS, in the South, older, most difficult votes to get

23% Swing, 40-23 Bush leading now....mostly females, Midwest, if Kerry can rise above partisanship and appeal to common values, he can flip this around and thereby win the election.....

Kerry ahead on many issues....intelligence, compassion, economy, healthcare....

Hispanic women ...good for Kerry, tied with Hispanic Men (down 2)
But Kerry down 19 with white men...winning coalition if he were down only 10)

Kerry now seen as opposition candidate...it's a dangerous campaign if Iraq and economy turns around. Opposition to Bush could be a lot softer...

2nd approach--wrong direction on healthcare, education, need reform,
"Voice for change"

Don't know how Kerry will emerge from the Convention, but the 2nd approach would be the stronger campaign...

Bush vulnerable, Kerry yet to prove he can win it with tremendous potential, swing voters who want to hear what the candidates say and 1/3 of Americans haven't made up their minds and won't do so until the last 2 weeks of the campaign....

Factors in elections...

Mood--if public likes incumbent is first consideration.....

Are they in the market for a new guy..

NEXT 60-90 days will determine the outcome!!!!
Approval rating is the best indicator...

Nader....3 impacts.....effect on debates, Kerry having to fight Nader in Gore states; Kerry/Nader vote

He doesn't believe election will be close...he says whoever wins will have a mandate. Country hasn't had a real voice since 911...won't sit in the middle on this. Bush has clearly stated his position. People don't think of themselves as Blue or Red...there is a DYNAMIC MIDDLE that will be FORCED to make a decision, one way or the other...

This PResident does have problems...


MORE

key...

Reviewing the vote stats and polls...

Clinton/Dole.....CLinton always between 50-60 approval, disapproval in 40's....static election...

Approval number in margin of error of election poll

Reagan/Mondale same thing....flat as a board approvals and disapprovals..

1992--Bush 1 disapprovals early on 37 disapproval and that was his vote %

1980--Carter/Reagan...around April/May the public decided no more Carter...
Disapprovals spiked up and that was it...

Underlying attitudes are hardening RIGHT NOW!!!!!!

ONLY TWO places where Bush has been Right track above wrong track has been when we've were attacked and when we attacked....

All the rest of the time....on wrong track...

Bush's negatives going UP, higher than Carter's and just below his father's...

Sosnik is the fmr. White House Political Director under Clinton 1995-97

Phase 1 now until July; MOST IMPORTANT, defining period of election and how it will turn out

Phase 2 Conventions, Olympics

Phase 3 Gen. Election Phase...Sept. a lost month, Bush will be spending time trying to figure out how to apologize during debatges

Phase 4 Debates 9/30-10/13 Last shot

Phase 5 End Game 10/14-11/2 Campaign is really over

So, it's important to work NOW to get out base, swing voters, move people away from Nader.

Thanks for the summary Gloria.

:thumbsup: