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Edited on Thu May-20-04 02:41 PM by dpibel
Typed but not proofed; find typos at will. Edited to insert an end bold tag. And then a misspelling in the subject line. Jeez.
Let me say first that I have no particular horse in this race. I find the arguments interesting. I admit to an instinctive distrust of official stories, especially in an age where official stories are so often Orwellian. If the Berg beheading was useful to the present administration, I see it as useful primarily as a distraction/counter to the Abu Ghraib story. It also serves (regardless of whodunnit) to inflame American bloodlust. I am unconvinced that anyone would be certain that it would produce a popularity bump for the Fierce Warrior Chieftain.
OK. You are very devoted to what you perceive to be punctilious analysis and sharp critical thinking. What I see you indulging in, however, is pot-calling-kettle-blackness. You are terribly upset with other people's conjecture (even when, as here, it is stated as conjecture), yet you offer not a shred of the "proof" you so stridently demand. You counter conjecture with conjecture and seem to feel that you have proven something. How does that work?
Here is an analogy: In a trial, each item of evidence is called "evidence." It is not called "proof." Proof is the conclusion drawn from the evidence. During the trial, each side puts on evidence; each side, to the best of their ability, debunks the other side's evidence. At the end of the trial, the trier of fact weighs the evidence and draws a conclusion as to whether the side with the burden of proof has sustained that burden. If, at the end of the plaintiff/prosecution case, the defense can convince the judge that the plaintiff/prosecution has failed to present any evidence which, if believed, would sustain the burden, then the judge can dismiss the case. If, however, the plaintiff/prosecution has presented any evidence (not proof), the trial goes forward, and the trier of fact weighs the evidence after the defense case.
Your position here seems to be that of the defense. You seem, however, to be saying "I am not convinced by anything offered in evidence. Therefore, the case must be dismissed." Try that in court some time and see how far you get.
You may, of course, say, "This is not a trial, so those rules don't apply." I respectfully submit that, if you are tempted to say that, you should reread what I just said.
The other problem with your presentation is this: While you make very free to criticize others for conjecture, you offer nothing more than, "We don't know for sure," and "I can offer a counter-conjecture." Why that should stand as sufficient to achieve the end you desire (which seems to be, "Everyone shut up about this," is a little hard for me to divine. In fact, unless you accept the official story as the unvarnished truth, there is no analysis of this matter which does not contain some conjecture. If you would like to criticize people who actually draw conclusions--e.g., "The CIA did it for sure"--get right after it. I agree. But why you get all sad about articles containing conjecture, especially when, as here, they are clearly stated as conjecture, escapes me.
A particularly fine example of your use of a counter-conjecture that is every bit as wild as the conjecture you find so objectionable was your theory, posted in a thread yesterday, of the multiple Zarqawis. You allowed as how it would be perfectly reasonable to suppose that the current two-legged Zarqawi represented a manifestation of the "Dread Pirate Roberts" phenomenon, and that, in fact there is no Zarqawi at all, although there are multiple Zarqawis. That you are quite comfortable chiding others for flights of fancy and loose logic while presenting such tightly reasoned theories might, some would think, call into question your own high opinion of your logical skills. (More on today's Zarqawi theory to follow.)
In today's disquisition, you fall immediately into the trap you abhor. You chide the author for stating as fact that Berg was held by Americans, then released. You have problems with what you see as the author's inconsistency you say (your material in bold):
"In this connection there is a question whether the American was released from prison at all. This is a most disingenous statement. The author first assumes as part of his theory that Berg was imprisoned and released based on Berg's own statements. Now the author is saying that based on those statements, something else is true!. You seem to have missed the "presumably" preceding the word "released" in the earlier discussion. The word "presumably," in common parlance, reserves the possiblity that the release did not occur. The glaring inconsistency escapes me.
That was out of order. To the tedious business of a more detailed response (please take no comfort if I do not respond to each and every one of your telling points; I don't have time to be doing what I'm doing here, let alone dismantle your argument word by word).
You object to the fact that the author relies too heavily on Nick Berg's own emails as proof he was detained. As a first matter, perhaps you would like to add some additional conjecture about why a person, widely advertised as a Bush supporter, would make something like that up. You are correct that this author bases his/her analysis on the Nick Berg emails. Before you get too excited about what this proves or does not, you should factor in the emails from the American consulate, which also assume Berg's incarceration. You are absolutely correct that the author's sole reliance on the Nick Berg emails fails to present all the available evidence. That does not mean that the additional evidence does not exist. You seem to have a problem with people writing posts to an internet forum, and people writing news stories, failing to present an absolutely watertight case. If that is problematic to you, you must have problems reading almost news story.
I actually agree with you that it is error to refer to Berg's garb as an American prison uni. There's nothing unique about orange jumpsuits. The principal question I have about that is why these terrorists, and no others, took the trouble to dress him up that way. It's even possible (here's one you missed) that Berg just had an orange outfit and that, consistent with other hostage/victim situations, the killers left him dressed the way they found him.
You say, "The reports taht Zarqawi has an artificial leg are based on more assumptions, rather similar to the Osama bin Laden kidney condition. There are reports that suggest one thing or another, but no hard proof." In point of fact, the belief that Zarqawi has an artificial leg is based on the fact that the US Government said so (that official story officially retracted about a month before the Berg beheading). Oh yeah: He's dead, too, but perhaps you demand less consistency from the US Gov. than from wild conspiracy theorists. Now, I think you will find little disagreement around here that anything that is the official story is per se suspect, but I don't think that's a position to which a hardheaded logician like you would support (you later say as much). But this puts you in a bit of a dilemma: You're calling the one-leggedness an assumption but not hard proof, but it is the official story. Are you saying that the official folk from the US Gov. engage in the kind of speculation that you are so upset about here? If you are, are you equally outraged by government speculation? Do you line-by-line every press release, sorting hard proof from assumption?
On the "ring trap," you apply rather the same logic that you criticize. This article is about questions, not conclusions. Again, the word "presumably" is the tipoff. You somehow turn that into "could be, so must be." It says, however, no such thing.
Ah, hell. This is really boring. You demand names and credentials of experts. I trust, then, you disbelieve all stories, good and bad, relying on "highly-placed administration officials," and any other cited source lacking name and credential. You state the obvious "anyone can print anything on the net" as if it proves something. You admit your diddliness on the issue of guns, but are quite comfortable saying that, absent expert identification to your standards, this is as credible as any other internet lunatic ravings. Well...
You seem to think what you're doing is debunking. You aren't. You're answering questions with questions. You're criticizing as speculation that which is clearly identified as speculation. But the most annoying thing is that you are presenting yourself as some sort of paragon of logic and clarity and I have yet to find where you've demonstrated that. You've got your ax to grind. Grind away. Just don't pretend that you're the agenda-free one and everybody you disagree with is a crazed ax-grinder.
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