War May Make It Tough for the President to Make Inroads With Minority Voters
By Terry M. Neal
President Bush's campaign advisers sat down and crunched some numbers after the 2000 election and hypothesized that, because of the growth of minority populations, if whites and non-whites voted in the same proportions they did in the 2000 election, Democrats would win the White House by about three million votes in 2004.
But with less than six months until Election Day, it appears that Bush's handling of the war in Iraq has reinforced among black voters some of the worst impressions of the Republican Party.
White Republicans frequently ask me why more blacks don't vote Republican. I have witnessed Fox News's Sean Hannity more than once berating an African American official on this subject, as if it were more of an accusation than a question.
Many black voters are culturally conservative, with strongly held Christian values that put them in line with the Republican Party, especially on issues such as same-sex marriage, school vouchers and partial privatization of Social Security. Yet on a host of other issues—from social justice to affirmative action to economic policy—black voters tend to go the other way. And Iraq is the latest example of a public policy on which many black voters simply find themselves on the polar opposite side from the GOP.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A41971-2004May20.html