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Who Argues with a 60:40 Landslide Now?

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Kong Donating Member (143 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 09:20 AM
Original message
Who Argues with a 60:40 Landslide Now?
I have been saying for over a year that Bush will loose in a landslide that will go at least 60:40 against him. Who now thinks it will be otherwise?
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trumad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 09:21 AM
Response to Original message
1. WRONG!
70/30... ;-)
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rock Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 09:22 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. Could be
I'm certainly entertaining the idea of 63/35. The worst ever.
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MAlibdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 09:23 AM
Response to Original message
3. My feeling is 55/45/5
With electoral landslide of 340+ EV for Kerry
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GreenPartyVoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 09:27 AM
Response to Reply #3
7. the 5 being Nader?
You really think so? Cause this is what I thought would happen in 2000 when I voted for him. Never in a million years thought * could "win". But, I really "misunderestimated" the sneakiness of the junta and the mindlessness of the sheeple.
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MAlibdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 01:41 PM
Response to Reply #7
38. Oh, i mean a kerry victory for sure...
just nader will get his 1-5%
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jmowreader Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 10:59 AM
Response to Reply #3
29. 105 percent? Well, Diebold did give Gore negative 16,000 votes
in Florida...so getting 105 percent of the electorate to vote is feasible, I guess.

Although 55/40/5 would be more believable.

All we really need is 52/48 with enough of a margin to keep BBV from being believable nationwide, and a good solid spread in states like Florida, but a ten percent spread would be really nice.

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MAlibdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 01:41 PM
Response to Reply #3
37. Lol, yes, that is 105%
53/43/4 then...
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TXlib Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 09:24 AM
Response to Original message
4. Is this based on some new polls that came out recently, or
is it a personal hunch?
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NewJeffCT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 09:26 AM
Response to Original message
5. sorry - strongly disagree
I would be shocked if we win. I think * & Rove are going to pull out an August Surprise, a September Surprise and an October Surprise to cap it all off. Imagine if they pull Osama out of a hat (I think he's on ice somewhere...) during the Dem convention in August, Bush stops a big Terror Attack in September, right after the Rep. Convention and then they find WMD the weekend before the election.

With the RW Corporate Media beating the Bush Drum, plus Diebold / BBV, not to mention the lack of ethics on the part of Rove, I think it will be a HUGE upset if we win, like a Jets over the Colts type of upset.

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efhmc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 09:31 AM
Response to Reply #5
8. Judging by the reaction to the latest "terror threat", I don't think these
events are going to fly. Almost all people are sceptical now.
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NewJeffCT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 10:05 AM
Response to Reply #8
21. I'm sure next time
Next time around, they'll probably do a better job of getting their act together when they announce a Terror Red Alert.
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obnoxiousdrunk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 09:34 AM
Response to Reply #5
9. Got that right
They are aldready talking about the economy being so great.After June 30 the Iraqi mess will be the Iraqi's problem. So what will the talking points be for Kerry ??
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Beetwasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 09:43 AM
Response to Reply #9
12. What Planet Do You Live On?
Edited on Fri May-28-04 09:45 AM by Beetwasher
Over 60% of the electorate thinks the country is on the wrong path.

Despite the rosy picture this admin. likes to paint, the economy is not noticeably better where it counts, with the working and middle class, just check the most recent polls where a significant majority think the Chimp is doing a shitty job on the economy. That will not change much before Nov. Have you seen the latest figures on housing?

June 30th is a fantasy. Keep praying though, maybe something miraculous will happen and Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny will come surfing down a moonbeam into Baghdad with barrels of pixie dust and say the magic words to make everything ok.
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trumad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 09:46 AM
Response to Reply #9
14. LOL
so were pulling out all 140,000 after June 3oth... Are you drunk?
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obnoxiousdrunk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 10:30 AM
Response to Reply #14
25. Just drunk and paranoid
and thinking of the worst. Anything wrong with that ?
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NewJeffCT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 10:07 AM
Response to Reply #9
22. bad economic news this week was ignored
The surprising drop in durable goods orders and the drop in housing starts (both worse than expected) barely registered this week.
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efhmc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 10:29 AM
Response to Reply #9
24. Iraq will not go away and we will still be there, economically and
militarily. Most people are not seeing any economical differences. Try filling up your car and then talk to people about the economy getting better. Again, few are buying this. Like most bush talking points, it has NO basis in reality.
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MoonRiver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 10:46 AM
Response to Reply #9
27. Take a wrong turn, did you?
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MAlibdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 01:44 PM
Response to Reply #9
39. hmmm...
talking points?

the economy is not great...to be sure, it's improving from where it was, but inflation is on the rise and most of the hirings have not been solid positions. it's been a corporate recovery, not a consumer/middle class one.
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natrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 10:38 AM
Response to Reply #5
26. agree
these f*ckers probably got it all planned out and know how and when they want to peak
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MoonRiver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 11:04 AM
Response to Reply #26
30. Everything they "plan" backfires on them.
So I say, bring it on!
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taquinas101 Donating Member (185 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 11:33 AM
Response to Reply #5
33. Bush Owns the South and parts of the Midwest Unfortunately
Bush/Rove have a stranglehold on the South and the Midwest, and can take them for granted. Put another way, are there any Southern states in which Kerry is leading or at least competitive? Likewise, Bush/Rove also own parts of the midwest.
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Beetwasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 12:16 PM
Response to Reply #33
35. Ehhh, So What?
Edited on Fri May-28-04 12:17 PM by Beetwasher
He's doomed without Ohio and/or Pennsylvania and they are looking less and less likely for the Chimp.

Nevada, New Mexico are going Dem this year too, bank on it.

I guess Iowa, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin are not the Mid West? I'd hardly call the Bush states a stranglehold on the Mid West.

Kerry's leading and very competitive in Fla. Does that count as South?
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onehandle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 09:26 AM
Response to Original message
6. Popular Vote or Electoral?
60:40 is doable for the Popular. My call for the pool is 55:45.

Electoral?

398:136, baby.
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Deja Q Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 10:13 AM
Response to Reply #6
23. Quite. Popular votes are zilch if people ceoncentrate themselves in
certain states...

Even the Supreme Court ignores the "Popular vote", in favor of pure partisanship. And that speaks volumes about how we run our country.
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the Kelly Gang Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 09:35 AM
Response to Original message
10. I don't argue but I pray for it every night
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Oggy Donating Member (652 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 09:36 AM
Response to Original message
11. One thing that I have been wondering about...
If before the election the polls are roughly at 60/40 or 55/45, but for some reason (BBV or another Florida/Supreme Court decision) Shrub gets back in, what would happen? What would all you guys do? ( I ask in this way as I am a Brit).
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Trinity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 09:46 AM
Response to Reply #11
13. CW
Civil War dude Civil War......


It doesn't take a time traveler or genius to see it coming.....

http://johntitor.strategicbrains.com/ :eyes:




Peace? :hippie: :smoke: :freak:
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Oggy Donating Member (652 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 09:59 AM
Response to Reply #13
18. I remember the stories of Mr. Titor
and his Stock Market triumphs....

Civil war... Shit I really hope that shrub gets booted out and stays booted out.

Right I'm back off to try to do the same for Blair.
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no im not crazy Donating Member (6 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 09:47 AM
Response to Original message
15. It doesn't matter
Do you all really think a 60/40, a 70/30, or even an 80/20 landslide even matters???

This is the administration that:

Let 3000 people die while they looked the other way when they knew an attack on us was imininent

Assasinated a sitting Senator and his wife because he opposed their war policy

Exposed a secret CIA agent to possible harm and even death because her spouse opposed their policy

Sent 800 troops to die (and 10000 innocent Iraqi civilians) for a war meant to ultimately establish a "Christian" theocracy in the Middle East

Do you REALLY think their going to let something as stupid as an ELECTION take away their power??????

The "terrorist attack" isn't going to come BEFORE the election. It's going to come AFTER, and used as an excuse to "delay the innaugaration".

Then things will REALLY get crazy.

First, they'll be more stories of public figures being arrested for "drugs" and "child pornography". Then they won't even use those excuses any more. They'll just round up people and arrest them. And the whore media will be on their side all the way.

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newyawker99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 01:40 PM
Response to Reply #15
36. Hi no im not crazy!!
Welcome to DU!! :toast:
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zanana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 09:51 AM
Response to Original message
16. When I think of the midterm elections...
I get very cautious about predicting the 2004 election results when I was so sure that people couldn't possibly be stupid enough to vote Republican in 2002. Then, Schwarzenegger became the Governor of California! (I STILL can't believe that happened)! I don't underestimate stupidity anymore.
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bobbieinok Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 12:12 PM
Response to Reply #16
34. 2002 and CA - it seems there was major tampering, BBV fraud,etc
The DU posts the afternoon and nite of that election had (predominatly dem) precincts out of ballots (AR, TX). There were many other voting problems reported at DU but NO WHERE ELSE - CERTAINLY NOT IN NATIONAL MEDIA. There were early vote possibilities in several states with DU reports of MAJOR problems ------

All the problems reported before and on the day of the election were ignored by the states and the media.

Before election day 2000 on Mike Malloy's discussion board there was a lot of discussion of the constant media spin vs Gore and pro Bush. One poster wrote in the context of this 24/7 media spin 'What if Gore wins and the media spins it so that the US people never know Gore won?'

and HE WAS RIGHT. GORE WON, BUT MEDIA SPUN, AND US PEOPLE STILL DON'T KNOW THE TRUTH.
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Trinity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 09:51 AM
Response to Original message
17. Do you really think that this band of thugs...
will let go of the power they now have? I don't see it.... It's gonna get ugly :shrug: but then again I could be wrong.....




Peace? :hippie: :smoke: :freak:
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gasperc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 10:00 AM
Response to Original message
19. whatever...let's keep working like we are 10 points behind
Edited on Fri May-28-04 10:00 AM by gasperc
:kick:
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seabeyond Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 10:03 AM
Response to Original message
20. i have never held or hold......that it is going to be close.
i go off feel, and the feel as of now to 2000, so different, so many ways.

the only thing i hold up is, who knows what will come. we will see. but the conclusion i give myself, bushie boy has fucked eVeryTHing up in his life, and the last 4 years, pretty confident he will continue this pattern, wink
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sleepystudent Donating Member (171 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 10:49 AM
Response to Original message
28. hmmm...
considering my recollection of the "we will win," "there's no way we can lose..." "how many seats do you think we will pick up.." drumbeat on here for the 2002 midterm elections(remember how that turned out?), I don't take any election predictions on this site seriously at all. Unfortnuately it's gotten to the point that I feel whatever is predicted on DU, the opposite will happen. Hopefully I'm wrong this time. But declarations of a landslide-what good do they do? It just makes people complacent like they already have it in the bag and don't have to do anything.

Oh yeah, news flash...it's more than five months until the election. And a lot of people don't really have a good sense of who John Kerry is anyway.
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ArkDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 11:10 AM
Response to Original message
31. I think it's an election that no one will loose.
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Wapsie B Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-28-04 11:13 AM
Response to Original message
32. Possble,
Edited on Fri May-28-04 11:15 AM by bushwentawol
but way too soon to say that Kerry will take office on Inauguration Day. Way too soon. For all the years the neocons have worked for this they're not going to give it up without a fight, a BIG fight, even if that means BBV or a terrorist incident between November and January. I hope to god I'm wrong on this. But I want to post this to make sure that these contingencies get out there into the open. Neocons are already floating the idea about an attack that would cancel the elections. Let's discuss all the things they could do to derail a peaceful transfer of power. I for one am not comfortable in believing 100% that such an exchange will actually take place.

At any rate we need the House almost as badly as the WH in order for this country to move forward.

I'll believe 60/40 on 11/3.
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