Assuming Kerry gets 2/3 of the Nader and undecided votes and
Bush the remaining 1/3. This is the traditional historical
split for a challenger vs. an incumbent. This may even be
conservative.
Kerry Bush Nader AdjK KerryEV
AL 35 54 43 0
AK 28 59 10 37 0
AZ 38 43 2 51 10
AR 43 51 2 47 0
CA 51 39 4 58 55
CO 44 49 4 49 0
CT 46 36 8 59 7
DE 55 42 3 57 3
DC 89 9 5 90 3
FL 50 48 1 51 27
GA 32 49 3 45 0
HA 56 37 6 61 4
ID 28 67 2 32 0
IL 52 39 1 58 21
IN 33 54 6 42 0
IA 49 48 1 51 7
KS 39 57 42 0
KY 39 52 45 0
LA 42 48 49 0
ME 54 35 3 62 4
MD 48 43 54 10
MA 54 30 5 65 12
MI 42 44 4 52 17
MN 51 44 2 55 10
MS 41 58 1 42 0
MO 37 48 5 48 0
MT 33 53 6 43 0
NE 33 62 4 37 0
NV 47 44 2 53 5
NH 46 46 2 52 4
NJ 46 43 5 54 15
NM 48 43 3 54 5
NY 57 34 4 63 31
NC 41 48 3 49 0
ND 33 61 3 37 0
OH 45 42 4 54 20
OK 34 53 43 0
OR 44 39 4 56 7
PA 47 46 6 52 21
RI 53 31 64 4
SC 39 49 3 47 0
SD 35 51 4 45 0
TN 47 49 1 50 11
TX 38 58 3 41 0
UT 22 67 3 30 0
VT 51 36 4 60 3
VA 45 47 3 51 13
WA 49 44 1 54 11
WV 47 41 55 5
WI 42 44 4 52 10
WY 28 68 2 31 0