What are the chances that Democrats will take back the house this year?

coloradodem2005

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Wed Jun-23-04 03:37 PM
Original message

What are the chances that Democrats will take back the house this year?

I think we are only down 10 or so seats in the house. What do you think?

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LuminousX

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Wed Jun-23-04 03:39 PM
Response to Original message

1. Slim, not impossible, but very unlikely

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fertilizeonarbusto

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Wed Jun-23-04 03:40 PM
Response to Original message

2. Not as good as the Senate, but not as bleak as the media

Edited on Wed Jun-23-04 03:40 PM by fertilizeonarbusto

paints them.
OK, anyone else think that if we are diligent and tough we can win this one a lot bigger than anyone guessed? Does anyone remember how Reagan and Carter were neck and neck in polls in 1980 and Reagan won in an electoral landslide? I get a feeling Kerry and the rest of the party can do the same this year.

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coloradodem2005

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Wed Jun-23-04 03:42 PM
Response to Reply #2

4. In essence...

I read that in 1980, not only did Reagan win in a landslide, but the Republicans retook the senate, while Democrats held the house.

We could end up with that in reverse. Kerry landslide with Democrats retaking the senate and Republicans holding onto the house?

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BillZBubb

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Wed Jun-23-04 03:42 PM
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3. Very slim.

Unless the Dems get smart and nationalize the election.

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tom_paine

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Wed Jun-23-04 03:42 PM
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5. Well, with Extreme Gerrymandering now in practice

I would say VERY UNLIKELY.

Add in our Third World Voting, corrupted badly by teh Imperials in now tested and true ways, and my honest assessment is "Impossible."

Let's hope I am WRONG. I am going to proceed with that assumption (that I am wrong) and work as hard as I can for as many campaigns as I can.

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CalebHayes

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Wed Jun-23-04 03:50 PM
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6. Well, we will win back one seat in WA but I don't know about....

any others we will be winning for sure.

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Nicholas D Wolfwood

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Wed Jun-23-04 03:51 PM
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7. It's very unlikely, but...

Let's not forget the huge turnover of 1994... Gerrymandering was equally popular back then. Of course, Repugs rig elections now, so it might be not QUITE as possible, but never underestimate disgruntled Americans...

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wellstone dem

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Wed Jun-23-04 03:52 PM
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8. We are trying to do our part in Central Minnesota.

Patty Wetterling, the mother of a son who was abducted 15+ years ago, is running against an incumbent. She has taken a leading role on abuduction issues in an non-partisan mannder until she announced her candidacy. She has tremendous name recognition and may have a chance to win. Contribute to her campaign if you can. http://www.wetterlingforcongress.com/

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olacan

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Wed Jun-23-04 03:57 PM
Response to Reply #8

9. Between

slim and none.

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AlCzervik

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Wed Jun-23-04 03:58 PM
Response to Original message

10. I dont think the house will happen this time

but i think in 06 there's a very good chance. I am convinced though that we will win back the senate this year.

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Atlanticist

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Wed Jun-23-04 04:02 PM
Response to Original message

11. tradesports.com has a book on the GOP retaining the House

They're currently 87.5% certain the GOP will retain control of the House. ie. a near certainty.

For the Senate, it's 76% and for President, it's 58%.

BTW they have Obama now 90.5% certain to win Illinois.

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coloradodem2005

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Wed Jun-23-04 04:08 PM
Response to Reply #11

12. Is this for the GOP to retain the senate and Presidency? eom

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Atlanticist

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Thu Jun-24-04 12:08 PM
Response to Reply #12

13. Today it's 58% for Bush to retain the presidency,

76.5% for the GOP to retain the Senate and 87.5% cetain to retain the House.

These are all completely separate odds.

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gasperc

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Thu Jun-24-04 12:36 PM
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14. 1994 was thought to be very unlikely for us to lose house

the big worry was that we would lose the senate and most resources went to that fight. Well the base was depressed and we lost both houses

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