Check the "poll results" MSNBC has on today: KERRY losing GROUND TO BUSH?

By Richard Morin and Claudia Deane

Updated: 7:59 a.m. ET July 27, 2004A majority of voters say they know little about John F. Kerry's positions on key issues and want the Democratic presidential candidate to detail specific plans for handling the economy, Iraq and the war on terrorism when he addresses the Democratic National Convention and a nationally televised audience on Thursday, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

The survey suggests that the stakes for Kerry and the Democrats as they began their convention in Boston could not be higher. In barely a month, Kerry has lost ground to President Bush on every top voting issue in this year's election.

A growing proportion of voters say Bush and not Kerry is the candidate who most closely shares their values, and four in 10 believe the Democrat is "too liberal." Bush has even narrowed the gap on which candidate better understands their problems, an area in which Kerry has led.

The poll suggests that negative ads by the Bush-Cheney campaign that have been airing since early March, as well as attacks by Republican officials, have been increasingly successful in planting the image of Kerry as an unreliable leader who flip-flops on the issues -- perceptions that Democrats will work hard to reverse at their convention.

Kerry's advisers down played the results of the Post-ABC poll, asserting that the senator from Massachusetts enters the convention stronger than other recent challengers to incumbent presidents. But they agreed that the four-day gathering in Boston represents a critical opportunity for Kerry to flesh out what is still a partial portrait of his candidacy and said that his chance to communicate directly with voters will pay dividends.

MORE at link.... :shrug:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5524805/

Just in time for the Convention bounce!

:bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

-MR

P.S. However, curb your enthusiasm on that too. Undecideds are so few and far between, I think both conventions are going to give their candidates only a 4-6% bounce. Ed Gillespie's contention that Kerry will see a 15 point bounce is pre-spin, to make the Democrats look bad when they fall short of his ridiculous prediction.

I know it'd feel good, but it also leads to "playing it safe" and not fighting as hard. I enjoy polls that show Kerry behind, since I can sense those numbers are superfiscial at best and always deceptive.

A national poll means nothing unless it's weighted by electoral votes so that someone in Montana doesn't count the same way someone in Florida or California or New York does. These network polls don't come close to doing that. They flash a phone bank overnight, shotgun calls and rush to print the numbers. All they care is for a certain number of the "likely voters" or "registered voters"...there's virtually no follow-up either.

While I hate to admit it, I tend to side with many of the talking heads now that feel this country is polarized around 45 percent now...not the 35 to 40 percent of the recent past...with only a 10 to 15 percent "middle ground" out there...thus the polls aren't likely to show a major shift or swing for either side.

But then you go to a site like Zogby or several others that are tracking the elections by local polls and doing their own verification and you're seeing a different picture.

Right now no one knows which way this election will break...and this nation hasn't heard from John Kerry the Nominee...only the candidate. I expect a far different tone in his speech on Thursday vs. anything we've heard from him before...then watch the pundits and polls spin.

Because it will translate well to the House and Senate races. And we need to make gains there more than anything else.

Thanks to the severe gerrymandering that's taken place in 2000...and the horseshit in Texas, a Kerry lead will mean little in the House, since the seats we're going to need will be in "red" states". A big Kerry lead would mean big leads in New York & California that that may make voters in Kentucky or Colorado or Arizona feel overcomfident.

I think the ball bounces both ways ways here as, yes a strong Kerry lead on election day could depress Repugnican voting...but that's in November, we're in July still and I still want a strong fire in all of our bellies to remove this regime with the strongest certainty I can hope for. Right now a Bunnypants lead may scare enough fencesitters into action or those who are soft on voting or haven't registered to take things a bit more seriously.

Chimpy McDumbass and his band of silly men have proved one thing, and given the Dems a powerful weapon.

They flop when on the defensive. If the Monkey-in-Chief stays on the attack then its gonna be a tight race.

If the Dems come out swinging (as they did last night) and keep swinging until Nov. 2 this will be in the bag easy.

I see an opening here to shift the balance but subtly...just as the Repugnicans did to the Democrats in 1994. Most of us didn't see that one coming...we thought people would blow off Gingrich as the bullshitter he was...but Clinton's low popularity created a lot of blowback that November. We have a similar situation developing here...a pResident whose popularity is in free-fall, we just stay united and this could lead to some big things.

Again, the seats that the Democrats need to retake the house are in Repugnican areas...or those that have been carved Repugnican through GOOP control of state legislatures in the 80's & 90's. Bush bashing won't work in Southern Ohio or Arkansas or Arizona or even in my heavily Repugnican area that is not supporting Bunnypants like it did 4 years ago.

We need to really help these fringe races...and Daily Kos has spotlighted some of these seats...it'd be great to get a stronger national party effort and put some money and other resources into these races...take advantage of a wave of younger and other disenfranchised voters that will be joining us this November.

Cheers.

To destroy Kerry like they tried to do to Gore. Gore still ended up with over a half million more votes than Dumbo. If it would have been a fair election,Dumbo would have been permently "cutting brush" and falling off his bike back in Crawford.They are going to be surprised when the election is over and Kerry wins in a landslide.I hope the polls keep bu$h ahead...it might keep KKKarl Rove and thugs from doing something drastic.

I hear the ongoing questions by pundits about what would happen if there was an attack 3 days before the election.

but the polls continue to show a Kerry lead. They can't spin this away forever. Watch for "likely voters" -- usually means weighting.

I've seen that whether it is deliberate or not, almost all the media outlets LIE and act like there is only one poll out there on the issues. Only CNN (not that I'm saying their unbiased) happened to tell the honest story, when it first reported its own poll showing Bush with a 4 point lead in Florida, but then the commentator said that in reality, Florida was a state up for grabs, becuase there were SIX ACTIVE POLLS there - 2 showed Bush leading, 2 showed Kerry leading and 2 showed a total tie.

So just remember that when worrying about polls.

RCP Average 7/17 - 7/25 45.3% 47.0% Kerry +1.7
ABC News/WP (909 RV) 7/22-7/25 49% 48% Bush +1
Rasmussen (1,500 LV) 7/23-7/25 46% 46% TIE
IBD/TIPP (883 RV) 7/19-7/24 43% 46% Kerry +3
Time/SRBI (882 LV) 7/20-7/22 44% 48% Kerry +4
Quinnipiac Univ. (1551 RV) 7/18-7/22 43% 46% Kerry +3
Fox News (767 LV) 7/20-7/21 44% 45% Kerry +1
CNN/Gallup/USAT (709 LV) 7/19-7/21 47% 49% Kerry +2
NPR - POS/GQR (800 LV) 7/18-7/20 46% 47% Kerry +1
LA Times (1,529 RV) 7/17-7/21 46% 48% Kerry +2
IBD/TIPP (842 RV) 7/12-7/17 41% 44% Kerry +3
CBS/NYT (823 RV) 7/11-7/15 44% 49% Kerry +5
Dem Corps** (1,010 LV) 7/10-13 46% 51% Kerry +5
CNN/Gallup/USAT (706 LV) 7/8-11 46% 50% Kerry +4
IBD/TIPP (800 RV) 7/6-7/10 44% 49% Kerry +5
Newsweek (1,001 RV) 7/8-7/9 45% 51% Kerry +6
Time (774 LV) 7/6-7/8 45% 49% Kerry +4
Zogby (1,008 LV) 7/6-7/7 44% 46% Kerry +2
CBS News (462 RV) 7/6 44% 49% Kerry +5
NBC News (504 RV) 7/6 43% 54% Kerry +11

plain and simple they think its said enough we'll believe it, POLLS SUCK!

They are polling 1000 people...it only takes 50 people answering differently from one poll to the next to make one candidate go from 2 ahead in one poll to 2 behind in the next. As long as it remains close we are in great shape....just gotta keep working hard.

The Republican media has taken care of that.

What good are those great speeches we saw last night?

Nobody except the faithful Democrats (with cable) will see them.

For the Heathers, a one-sided race is boooooRING, like, duh!

So they will always push in the direction of a neck-and-neck horserace wherever and however they can. Simple as that.

They ask for "specifics". Then when he gets into details, people will say that he's too boring and nerdy like Gore. I don't remember half the electorate ever asking for any specifics from monkey boy.

I tend to agree.

I have always cited that having even a small lead ahead of the convention against an incumbent president during a time of war is a good thing for us Democrats.

However, one must not expect in these charged and divided times a huge bounce in the polls or you will be solely disappointed.

Are we not listening to our talking points?

In an age of corporate media and free passes for the fascists our guy has been working off of a small violatile lead.

This does not suck but a big lead will be out of our reach I believe.

The key is for Democrats and I believe it is happening amoung some to stop trying to apologize and water down beliefs inherent in what we are as liberals and progressives.

The time is to fight and start trying to convince people the way the conservatives have done for years that our way is the correct way.

It is not enough to move small percentages of swing voters. It is time to stop the watering down process and begin to move to energize both the base while at the same time moving more people to our side.

The DLC has some good points about moderating on guns, the death penalty and other wimp issues to take a phrase but we cannot be fooled into believing that Repuke-lite wins us anything.

Learn what we need to truly moderate on take that knowledge and move on staying on target and on point about every other issue.

That is truly a balanced approach.