Ladies and Gentlemen, This Election is About Only a Few States

I have been pouring over polling data from every conceivable source.

I have tried to discount partisan bias on my part, the polling group, and the annalists.

If Kerry and Bush hold onto the most obvious states. If you add N.H. to Kerry and split Iowa and N.M. or even if Kerry carries all three, or carries at least one, the scenario goes like this:

Here are the states in question. Pennsylvania, Missouri, Ohio, and Florida. Kerry must hold on to Pennsylvania at all costs. I cannot envision a Kerry victory without Penn. Right now, he looks good, but Penn is our "Must Win" state. All other scenarios make Kerry a long shot without Penn.

Now, if Penn. stays blue, as I truly believe it will, we now have three must win states for Bush, Ohio, Florida, and Missouri.

Of the three, Mo. is least likely to move in our direction, Missouri is to Bush what Pennsylvania is to Kerry.

Now, we are down to two, Ohio and Florida. These two states are razor thin, bouncing back and forth between slim leads. If Kerry can win just one of these states, as things look now, he wins the Presidency.

Can you believe that this race can stay this close, this long and come down to these two states this early?

I'm hoping for a Kerry Landslide, don't get me wrong. And maybe I'm just tired or frustrated, but it looks to me like we are in a dog fight.

I would appreciate your input.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/ for EV totals,

and for * approval poll trends, www.pollkatz.com.

If not, they are very informative.

comfortable with W.V., Tenn, Mo, and Az in the Kerry column, than I guess that's how you sleep at night.

For me, they are in the enemy camp, with an outside shot at Mo. If we carry Mo., it will be a landslide. If Kerry connects the the voters in Missouri, Ohio and West Virginia are a cinch. However, I don't see it. I hope you're correct.

I still see Ohio or Florida as the deciding factors. All I want is one of them, just one and I can sleep at night.

Now thats a consice breakdown! I wish I had something to add, other than.... thank you! :) Its encouraging to see someone spend the time and effort on this.

Ive heard, by way of the talking heads, that Penn will go blue. Florida I think will also. Too much pent up hostility over 2000 to let their be a repeat. But, this is all speculation on my part. I hope we are both right.

The only thing we have to fear is over confidence (as deserved as it is). Thats why I like the poll numbers, keep us hungry ;)

If you haven't seen this before, check it out. Just click on states to change from red to blue and determine the possible scenarios by which Kerry WILL win.

http://www.edwardsforprez.com/dailykos.html

I just put in the states that Gore won in 2000 or should have won ie Florida and NH - and the results are Kerry 291 to Bush 247 - I can not believe that states that went for Gore will go for Bush this time

Then when I add the states I think we can pick up - Ohio, MO and WV it changes to Kerry 327 Bush 211 and with this scenario we can take out OH and FL - in case of BBV shenanigans and Kerry still wins - 280 to 258.

This is doable!!!!

I don't think us being overly confident is something that would ever happe here. I've been on this board since it's inception and I've seen * and his gang of criminal thugs involved in activites that deem me speechless..... and....nothin' ... the stories never or at least very seldon GO ANYWHERE. My God, I've never seen so many scandals in my life and the fact that the election is even close simply makes my head spin a thousand miles per hour (if I really think about it). I've had to get very metaphysical about it and my belief is that for some reason right now...down is up, up is down, black is white, white is black, today is Friday, my cat's a dog, on and on. I realized that I just can't make since out of things that don't make sense.

don't they always vote for the eventual winner or should I say in Bush case the one who eventually get innaugurated...I'm superstitous

except once (twice if you include the selected squatter*.)

so, if Mo. and Ohio split, something's got to give.

But, you know, these yardsticks don't mean a thing. In 1992, the conventional wisdom was that "No Democrat has ever been elected without taking Texas." But the Big Dog won twice without Texas, so you don't hear that anymore.

These old saws are sometimes just old.

has won without Ohio, Kennedy in 1960.

Missouri has voted for the eventual loser just once in 100 years. I think it was Stevenson in 1956, but I may be wrong on that.

That is the reality, even though it makes things tough on the analysts.

From a St Louis perspective, I see a lot more Kerry and anti-bush* bumper stickers than W* bumper stickers. I'd say a ten to one ratio at least. I have relatives in southern MO and it would seem many in the South of MO are not too happy with Smirk and Sneer (Thanks texasblueseyes for my favorite new label for the dipstick duo)either. Yes, southern Missouri is the South, every bit as southern as any of the southern states.

20/1 pro-Kerry to negative Bush signs, and I am in Columbus, which would be a moderate area.

the voting machines have no paper trails.
Jeb Bush, Glenda Hood his Secretary of State and Brenda Snipes, the supervisor of elections in Broward County Florida appointed by Jeb Bush after he fired the Democrat Sup. of Elections Miriam Oliphant, all insist there is no need for paper trails ... making the apparent code word between them one of steal the votes, steal the votes, seal the deal. Out in Duval County the Republican Supervisor of Elections who has not been to work for about a year I think it is, I am not sure, because of a heart attack, refuses to resign because he says "things are working just fine"...so there again the word must be steal the votes, seal the deal.
It would take a Teresa Heinz Kerry miracle for Kerry to carry Fla.
:dem:

Bush could pull it off by swapping Florida for two upper midwestern states (Wisconsin and Iowa have 17 EV total), and shuffling the deck of the smaller states. I think that right now that's more likely than a PA/FL or MI/FL swap.

is going for Kerry - don't ask me why - just a feeling....I knew Gore would carry it in 2000 and I know Kerry will in 2004

Went for Gore with some room to spare, trending left over time, democratic governor now, partly in the rust belt.

Also, you don't endear yourself to the people of Pennsylvania by railing against northeasterners.

Bush could pull off a trifecta along the upper Mississippi (IA WI MN) before taking PA.

Both states went Gore by less than 1% (I think .2 and .4 percent)

Zogby has Kerry up by 2 and 4%. Those seem average, although the 4% might be a bit higher than average for Kerry.

2-4% is nothing, although it seems like more than it really is given the stability of the horse race since spring. Bush could win in both those places.

www.electoral-vote.com and kerry's got his foot on bush's neck right about now. everyone's right to not be too cocky, but kerry's definately in the driver's seat.

if kerry wins all states that he's currently leading in, he's got 318 EV's, I threw out AZ's 10 EV's because I just don't trust that poll.

If bush* wins all states he's leading in, he's got 220 EV's with AZ. Yep, he's gonna have to pick up 50(!) EV's from kerry to win. the state that i haven't heard anyone talk about that kerry's been leading in for a couple weeks is... gasp! tennessee! gore's state!

http://www.electoral-vote.com/pastpolls.html is an excellent section because you can see the trends and get a better feel for which ones are close and which is not. if kerry wins FL or OH, this one's over.

Republicans have been elected here by large margins for over 50 years now. But the winds are changing direction and I think after seeing 4 years of bush and what he has done to Ohio and with 10000+ crowds showing up in the blistering sun just to hear Kerry speak.....that is saying something. I truly believe Ohio is going to give Kerry the presidency on Nov. 2nd.

Give Kerry the following states:

California
Oregon
Washington
New Mexico
Hawaii
Minnesota
Iowa
Wisconsin
Illinois
Michigan
W. Virginia
Pennsylvania
DC
Maryland
Delaware
New Jersey
New York
Connecticut
Rhode Island
Massachusetts
Vermont
New Hampshire
Maine

And give Bush the rest, including Florida and Ohio,

Both get 269.

Maine and Nebraska do the weirdo split the electoral vote thing....
Congressional district by district plus two (for the senators) to whomever wins the state's popular vote.
I doubt NE has a single Dem district, but I'm not sure about ME.

Maine and Nebraska split the vote by congressional district; the proposed plan in Colorado would do it by proportions in the popular vote.

and only 1 point back in Nevada.

While this looks so close right now, there could easily be a reverse "Reagan Revolution" on election night.

Lots of Bush supporters have this "don't change horses" mentality,
but Kerry can turn this around in the debates. And I believe there will be debates. Chimp does think he's the greatest. He thinks he won the 2000 debates. He thinks he invincible. But he's just a chimp, so what does he know.

Missouri and Tennessee have enough conservative Democrats that Bush can wedge them into his column with the usual gay marriage hysteria. Watch that happen and, if the economy is good enough this fall, watch it work.

Ohio will pick the next president. Winning Ohio is everything.

What I'm saying here is close to that.

Florida or Ohio needs to go to Kerry for us to win.

would vote to break the tie. Not the current house, but the newly elected one.

Each state caucuses and the majority of that state delegation casts one vote. 26 states wins the Presidency. This method favors the less populated states.

It is conceivable that Kerry could win the popular vote, tie the electoral college, the Democrats could have a majority in the house, and Bush still serves another four years.

Talk about a crisis.

which means bush wins, due to him getting all the unpopulated states.

My daughter tells me that in Northern Virginia everyone she knows is for Kerry -- including a ton of people who were for Bush. She says driving into DC on 95 every morning she sees Kerry/Edwards bumper stickers everywhere and the only Bush/Cheney stickers "don't look fresh."

Is the Republican stronghold in Southern Virginia? Zogby has Bush up by 6 or 7 points, doesn't he?

Northern Virginia is pretty liberal. They are part of Washington DC, and are socially "blue state people" (starbucks drinking, volvo driving...). Sure, if you're from suburban Maryland, you'll see a difference, but that difference is vanishing.

The other areas of democratic strength in Virginia are areas of racial minorities (much of the Norfolk are, Richmond proper) or relict forests of union members in the coal areas.

That leaves huge chunks of Dixie in the rest of the state, which collectively have a larger population. These include the outer suburbs of DC (e.g. Loudon County), the Shenandoah Valley, the Southside region from outside Petersburg west all the way to Bristol, and the suburbs of Richmond. Add Lynchburg and white Virginia Beach as well.

You start out by saying 'If Kerry and Bush hold onto the most obvious states' but your conclusion is 'This Election is About Only a Few States' -- seems like flawed logic to me.

http://www.electoral-vote.com
http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT

We went in knowing that about 17 states are in play. Of those, Kerry is strong in some, like Wash, Or, Penn, Minn, Iowa, NH, NM and Bush is strong in others, like Virginia, WV, Mo, Tenn, Ark, Az, NC, Nev

As I use polling data, historical voting information, common sense, and gut instinct, I come up with two states in which we need just one, Ohio and Florida.

Ohio was decided by less than 4 points in 2000, and Gore gave up two weeks before the election. They have been hardest hit by the Bush economy of lost jobs. Florida is still stinging from the last election, and gas prices have hurt their largest industry, tourism. The Cuban Americans don't like the Administration's travel restrictions to Cuba, and this may erode some of Dubya's support. As I take all these factors into account, that's how I come to my conclusion.

In my opinion, it is far from flawed.

you started with the 'conventional wisdom' premise that there are only 17 states in play. So your premise eliminates more that half the states right off the bat, yet the conclusion you are reaching is that the election is only about a few states.

I use polling data, historical voting information, common sense, and gut instinct

That is separate from my original objection, but I didn't see you cite any polls or historical data -- to claim that you did so is a factually incorrect statement.

As far are supporting your argument by saying it is 'common sense' and 'gut instinct' -- that's simple laughable. You might as well assert it's true because god told you so.

Time Will Tell

I Hope You Are Correct, and Kerry Wins In A Landslide.

Maybe I'm Correct, and Kerry Wins a Close One by Carrying Either Ohio or Florida.

Or Maybe, God Forbid, We're Both Wrong, and the Asshole Serves Another Four Years.

As far as the data is concerned, it's Zogby, Rasmussen, Some of the other stuff you've read here, how each state voted in recent Presidential elections, and the fact that in 2000, Gore failed to carry a single southern state, including his home state of Tennessee.

I come from Massachusetts, and have lived in the South for seven years, before moving back ten years ago, so my gut instinct from my experience is that there continues to be some resistance to a Kerry candidacy in all the southern states, except Florida.

Common sense is that every poll has this election within a handful of points nationally, so the Bush voters have to be somewhere,

I agree with your political position, that it is amazing that Bush could be above 10%, but reality tells me otherwise, so I am analyzing as objectively as I can.

that Kerry will win in a landslide, what I said was that you stated your conclusion in your premise.

With Bush's high disapproval ratings combined with the voter turnout based on the primaries, it could be a long night for Bush. There were record turnouts for the Democratic primaries indicating that the Democrats are highly motivated. Conversely, the voter turnout for the Republican primaries was low, even taking into consideration that it was an incumbent that they were voting for. Republicans are not too enthusiastic about Bush. Historically, low voter turnout has been good for Republicans, so it's important that we get as many people (at least people who want to vote for Kerry) to the polls as possible

Yesterday, the margin was only 1.5%. We can do it. I feel it.