"All the polls show Kerry getting whipped badly by Bush among practicing Catholics, Protestants and Jews. Moreover, the latest edition of Time magazine reports that only 7 percent of likely voters think Kerry is a man of strong religious faith," Donohue said.
Here is the latest Zogby poll of Catholics:
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=849The Bush campaign's efforts to court voters in the Hispanic, Jewish, and Catholic communities seem to have fallen flat. Mr. Kerry is leading Mr. Bush by a similar margin to that which former Vice-President Al Gore won among Jewish voters in 2000. Mr. Bush is also running far behind his 2000 Hispanic total, with only 19% of the Hispanic voters supporting him, while Mr. Kerry is beating Mr. Gore's total with 69%. Mr. Kerry is also running very strong among Catholics, topping Mr. Bush, 52% to 37%, showing that not only has Bush's courting of them failed, but his use of wedge issues like gay marriage and partial birth abortion have failed to separate Catholic voters from Kerry.
The Senator's lead among Catholics is similar to the Clinton margins of the 1990s.
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Catholics for a Free Choice did a survey in June which indicated a tie between Kerry and Bush at 40% each. However, in that survey 366 of 2239 Catholics surveyed were Latino, which under-represents that group by about 50%.
The Zogby poll released on July 30 shows Kerry ahead 52-37 among Catholics. If we add 437 Latinos to the sample, the sample becomes 30% Latino.
"Corrected" June results
Kerry: 2239(0.4) + 437(0.69) = 1197 for Kerry
Bush: 2239(0.4) + 427(0.19) = 977 for Bush
Kerry: 1197/2673 = 45%
Bush: 977/2673 = 37%
Zogby July results: 52% Kerry, 37% Bush.
My guess would be that there was a serious net shift toward Kerry among white Democrats during July. This might correspond with increased pro-Kerry activity among unions during July.
The Knights of Columbus is a strongly anti-abortion group which has petitioned the Catholic authorities for Ted Kennedy's excommunication. The authorities have said no, since Kennedy did not procure or perform an abortion. While perhaps expert in fornication, Kennedy has apparently not committed adultery either.