Electorial Vote Predictor - 8/4 Update

Norbert

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Wed Aug-04-04 05:58 AM
Original message

Electorial Vote Predictor - 8/4 Update

Edited on Wed Aug-04-04 06:01 AM by Norbert

Electorial Vote predicts as of 8/4: Kerry=307, Bush=231

The Bad

Arizona switches from barely Kerry to barely Bush
Tennessee switches from barely Kerry to barely Bush

The Good

Pennsylvania goes from a weak Kerry state to Strong Kerry State (Latest poll gives Kerry a 53% to 41% edge).

Virginia goes from weak Bush to barely Bush (Latest poll bush down to 3% edge)

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

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elperromagico

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Wed Aug-04-04 06:13 AM
Response to Original message

1. Here's another.

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/polls04.htm

Kerry - 255
Bush - 175
Too Close to Call - 87
No Polls Available - 21

Kerry has narrow leads in 6/11 "too close to call" states, for 42 electoral votes.
Bush has narrow leads in 5/11 "too close to call" states, for 45 electoral votes.

Kerry will likely win 3/6 "no polls available" states (DC, HI, and DE) for 10 electoral votes.
Bush will likely win 3/6 "no polls available" states (ND, NE, and WY) for 11 electoral votes.

This yields:
Kerry: 255+42+10= 307
Bush: 175+45+11= 231

Well, at least the numbers match. :shrug:

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lapfog_1

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Wed Aug-04-04 06:45 AM
Response to Original message

2. Here is an ugly outcome

Based on the fact that the BFEE will, more than likely, play
every dirty trick they know to steal Florida again, and that
the good little freepers showed up strong to vote in anti-gay
legislation in Missouri... suppose those go to Bush.

Kerry - 269
Bush - 269

and we be screwed... I think if it's a tie, the House votes, right?
And it's the current House, not a new one, right?

electoral-vote.com has always been a bit on the optimistic
side.

How much of this change from maps of just a few days ago is
due to "terra terra terra" and how much is dislike of the
Kerry speech and/or DNC in general?

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southernleftylady

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Wed Aug-04-04 06:46 AM
Response to Original message

3. where do they get all these numbers from??? n/t

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