Bad, very bad. After Cheney's speech Independents in focus

Pallas180

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Wed Sep-01-04 10:48 PM
Original message

Bad, very bad. After Cheney's speech Independents in focus

group, 11 out of 17 of them would vote for Cheney.

Is there something wrong with these peoples' hearing? understanding?
comprehension?

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Chomskyite

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Wed Sep-01-04 10:49 PM
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1. Frank Luntz

Those are the only words you need to hear.

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David Dunham

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Wed Sep-01-04 10:49 PM
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2. Focus group was in Republican Cinncinnati.

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truebrit71

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Wed Sep-01-04 10:50 PM
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3. Relax..there are 61 days to go....

Edited on Wed Sep-01-04 10:51 PM by truebrit71

..Senator Kerry hasn't responded..yet..there's a $45 million ad campaign being launched on friday...the fun has yet to begin...

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Eric J in MN

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Wed Sep-01-04 10:52 PM
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4. Frank Luntz is a Republican, who polls for Republicans (nt)

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Teaser

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Wed Sep-01-04 10:52 PM
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5. You're worried about a sample size of 28?

I have some nice statistics texts to recommend.

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Renew Deal

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Wed Sep-01-04 10:52 PM
Original message

They are more likely to vote for him.

They did not commit to anything. I don't think they were all independent. It's called a bounce.

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Pallas180

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Wed Sep-01-04 11:02 PM
Response to Original message

9. Bounce..yes , that could be it.

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private_ryan

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Wed Sep-01-04 10:52 PM
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6. 12 out of 17

would've voted for Kerry right after his speech.

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annxburns

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Wed Sep-01-04 10:54 PM
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7. Sorry, Luntz focus groups are bullshit.

He is a republican. He picks people that lean Bush on purpose.

Wait till people react to Miller challenging Chris Matthews to a duel (you know he is going to play that over and over)

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Orangepeel

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Wed Sep-01-04 10:58 PM
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8. one CANNOT make quantitiative predictions from focus groups

I agree that it was bad, because the negativity feeds on itself and people hearing the "results" start to believe they mean something. But it just isn't appropriate to use focus group information that way.

Focus groups are good for exploratory research and basic concept testing. They are NOT good for extrapolating what anyone outside of the room would do in real life.

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susanna

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Wed Sep-01-04 11:30 PM
Response to Reply #8

10. Exactly.

I was somewhat heartened by this focus group, mostly because they actually deviated from the "all trend up" enjoyed by Kerry during the Democratic convention.

As an example: in every "power point" of the Cheney speech, DEM/INDs split from REPs. In the Kerry speech at the DNC, all--DEM/IND and REP--went upwards. Tells me the DEM/INDs might be on the same side this time. :-)

But I also know the sample size is ridiculous. You gain nothing from these focus groups, except as orangepeel68 mentions: they provide exploratory research.

So says me. :-)

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