Ivan - 165mph 914millibars

This storm is now stronger than Andrew and approaching the strength of Camille.

Edit: Updated millibar reading...thanks Junkdrawer

If it keeps going on that track it's gonna hit my area. I guess that idjit who flew his airplane into it dropping chemicals was successful...NOT!

I'm inland, but I have a real fear of tornadoes spinning off from these storms.

Think about making plans to leave. Remember Opal in '95? That was a category 3 with winds about 125 mph at landfall.

My husband's family lives around the Andalusia area in Covington County, Alabama. That town lost about half its trees, and they're 60 or so miles from the coast. It looked like a different place after. My sister-in-law and mother-in-law rode it out at SIL's house in Opp and the windows blew out.

I remember sitting up all night when it came up this way. We lost a huge hickory tree in our yard - pushed it right up out of the ground. And we live in Birmingham.

8 mph. This one is going to do a great deal of damage.

The lowest sea-level pressure was estimated by a dropsonde (an instrument package dropped from an aircraft sent to determine typhoon location and intensity) in Typhoon Tip, 520 miles northwest of Guam on October 12, 1979. The pressure was 25.69 inches of mercury or 870 millibars (mb).
The lowest pressure measured by a ship was 26.18 inches (886.7 mb) aboard the Sapoerea, 460 miles east of Luzon in the Philippines on August 18, 1927. The North American record is not far behind--26.35 inches (892.3 mb) at Matecumbe Key, Florida, during the devastating Labor Day hurricane of September 2, 1935.
It is difficult to say what the lowest pressure might be from an extratropical storm (one that forms at middle or high latitudes). I am not aware of any theoretical studies on this. The National Weather Service office at Anchorage documented a pressure of 27.35 inches (926.1 mb) on Saint Paul Island in the Pribilof Islands of the Bering Sea at 3:00 p.m. local time on October 25, 1977. I have not personally observed a lower pressure than this in an extratropical storm, but readers are invited to submit documentation of lower pressures.

http://www.weatherwise.org/qr/qry.lowpressure.html

If that fucker slides into the Gulf, we may need a new catagory.

EDIT

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST OR ABOUT
105 MILES... 170 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WOULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 910 MB...26.87 INCHES. THIS IS THE
SIXTH LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURE ON RECORD FOR A HURRICANE IN THE
ATLANTIC BASIN.

EDIT

... 175 miles south of central Cuba, about 50 miles due west of Jamaica. Looks like the eye went straight across Jamaica, east to west. They've got to have been hammered hard.

The track seems more westerly than northwesterly, so it looks as if the northeast quandrant of the storm will sweep across all of Cuba.

At the moment, it looks as if Ivan will be going straight through Central America.

Someone was posting to the effect that Ivan did a cute little two-step move and went west of Jamaica. I'll check on that one...

edit:
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/2004/jamaica.shtml

"The island was spared the full impact of the storm as the eye passed along the South-West Coast of the island."

Still, things look pretty harsh there.

but there were deaths, and now lots of looting.

killed 50 people in Carribean

Set the prisoners free?

very worried about the prisoners - seriously! Their lives are meaningless to this current evil cabal....

Of course, I live in the Panhandle area and my house was flooded by Hurricane Opal. Think the time is here to MOVE.

Probably out of serious danger. Earlier it looked like they would take a head on.

Havana is in big trouble though.

Here are the most intense hurricanes in the Atlantic basin since 1871 based on central pressure:

1. 888 mb....Gilbert (1988)
2. 892 mb....1935 "Labor Day" hurricane
3. 899 mb....Allen (1980)
4. 905 mb....Camille (1969)
4. 905 mb....Mitch (1998)
5. 914 mb....Ivan (2004)
5. 914 mb....Janet (1955)

I evacuated when it was two days away it was so freaky looking and it went into an unpopulated area of Mexico

1932 on November 7th a cat 4 hits with 135mph winds causing heavy damage came from the S.E very heavy damage on Cayman Brac estimates of a storm surge of 32ft. 109 killed here. Losses in Grand Cayman included about 60 houses entirely demolished or seriously damaged; 250 people lost practically all their possessions and were rendered homeless.

We'll see . . .

In addition, the water between Jamaica and Cuba is very warm, hence the tremendous strenghtening since yesterday. Don't know what Gulf water temps look like, but another few days over open water is NOT what the Gulf Coast needs.

Maybe that's what will happen to Ivan too?????

When it crossed the Florida peninsula. It wasn't over the Gulf long enought to regenerate.

Coastal water temps are in upper 80's still. A lot of fuel for this thing.

that seems odd.

The texas coast is less populated and there is more room to evacuate..

Where ever this beast hits will be hammered :(

Not good.

I'm in Pensacola and expect the worst...

It has passed hurricane Janet and is all alone as the 5th strongest Atlantic hurricane of all-time.

That is so ominous. I am so sorry for Floridians. This is the very last thing they need.

another good site that we Cajuns depend on

I'm getting worried. I can't imagine what the folks around the panhandle are thinking. This one's going to be ugly.

I used to live in New England where all we had to worry about was the odd blizzard every now and then.

Getting a little worried. :scared:

The panhandle is low-lying and there are many people who can't get away. I am very worried. This could be terrible.

or most of Florida... Looks like the panhandle is the target..:scared:

had it hitting Panama City dead-on, then veering up to smack Atlanta upside the head.

:-(

Nowhere is safe from these storms. The inland flooding and tornadoes kill lots of folks too. Take care...keep watching the track and be prepared.

I don't know how many are aware of this but Frances spawned over 90 tornadoes as it tracked north over land.

it will head for my area, weaker, but still nothing to be happy about. :-(

had it hitting Panama City dead-on, then veering up to smack Atlanta upside the head.

:-(

Red line is right over my fave hotel in the panhandle and MY HOUSE!

I lived in southern Mississippi through Camille and lots of other hurricanes. That red-line on the map will go almost straight through Mobile Alabama. I have a lot of friends that live there. I hope they get out of there.

4 runs. I hate to see this thing hit anywhere but I think the most damage would occur if it hit the New Orleans area.

And if it even hits with Cat 3 force there, everyone dies. It also takes a while to evacuate the Keys because of only one road that can't be used in high wind, so better safe than sorry.

has evacuated the Hemingway cats from Key West.

Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number 38a

Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on September 11, 2004

...Category five Hurricane Ivan headed for the Cayman Islands and
western Cuba...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Cuba from Pinar del Rio to
Ciego de Avila including the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane Warning
means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning
area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the rest of Cuba. A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

Interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea...as well as in the
eastern Gulf of Mexico...should closely monitor the progress of
this extremely dangerous hurricane.

At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the well-defined eye of Hurricane Ivan was
located near latitude 18.2 north...longitude 79.7 west or about
130 miles... 205 km...southeast of Grand Cayman.

Ivan has wobbled westward over the past few hours but is expected to
resume a west-northwestward motion near 9 mph...15 km/hr during the
next 24 hours. On this track...Ivan should be moving near or over
the Cayman Islands on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph...270 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ivan is an extremely dangerous category five hurricane on
the Saffir/Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles... 110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 175 miles...280 km.

An Air Force Reserve unit hurricane hunter aircraft measured a
minimum central pressure of 912 mb...26.93 inches. This is the
sixth lowest central pressure on record for a hurricane in the
Atlantic Basin.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 20 to 25 feet...locally higher...
above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering
waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center
makes landfall in Cuba.

Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the
path of Ivan.

Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...18.2 N... 79.7 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...165 mph. Minimum central pressure... 912 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM EDT.

Forecaster Pasch

Cuba is not enough land to slow this thing down at all. This is going to be a bad week for a lot of people.

On edit: didn't mean to sound callous about the Cubans...I hope they are in shelters. But once this already huge hurricane gets into the Gulf of Mexico...it will be like a mother of all SUV's sucking up the fuel over a fuel truck.

I know that I'll probably be sounding like a broken record because I'm sure that I 've posted this many times here but after going through a weakened Hugo I wouldn't wish a strong hurricane on my worst enemies. It's just something that you can't appreciate unless you've actually experienced it.

My thoughts will be with everyone in this storms path. And please if anyone on this board is in the path, do not take any chances by staying in low lying areas, mobile homes or even old and weakened structures. The difference between a Cat 1 or 2 storm and a Cat 3,4 or 5 storm is extreme.

just my hunch. FL will be spared.

Sign me, A weather weenie

I'm sitting in the French Quarter typing this. If it hits New Orleans at the right angle, it will be good bye New Orleans. It'll be under 20 feet of water.

Hope your hunch is wrong.

:-)

There are other variables that may change Ivan's path, but you need to be very worried.

New Orleans was on the west or "dry" side of the storm so it didn't get hurt much.

If one comes into New Orleans from the east, It will fill up New Orleans (which is under sea level) like a bowl with 20 feet of water

with the suggestions that these storms are some kind of divine retribution. However.

It is interesting to note Camille's path in 1969 and compare it to a map showing the states that voted for either Wallace or Nixon in the 1968 presidential campaign. See the lower right map below.

Watch for it. When they get this powerful, that happens and its really weird to see

How can it form two eyes?

The Eyewall

The dense wall of thunderstorms surrounding the eye has the strongest winds within the storm. Changes in the structure of the eye and eyewall can cause changes in the wind speed, which is an indicator of the storm's intensity. The eye can grow or shrink in size, and double (concentric) eyewalls can form.



I was trying to find a pic of Gilbert's double eyewall, but couldn't

http://hurricanes.noaa.gov/prepare/structure.htm

Seems to be an extra patch of blue near the eye.

The thing filled up the entire Gulf of Mexico. It was amazing.

Weather channel was saying it's a weird phenomenon. Shudder.

Where the satellite pic of the eye shows the ocean below in the center.

M.O.N.S.T.E.R. !!