Don't be fooled! (Skewed polls on CA recall being promoted by right!)

The right-wing Hugh Hewitt Show was hosting Schwarzenegger cheerleader Rep. David Dreier who is promoting a yet-to-be-released "ABC poll" that shows the recall ahead "63% to 35%" with Schwarzenegger leading Bustamante "45% to 29%." I have to use quotes around these figures they're so bogus! Two points need to be made about this poll:

First, the poll was conducted by "Survey USA" (http://www.surveyusa.com/) for a few ABC affiliates. The notable thing about the poll is that the pool of respondees in composed of what Survey USA calls "Certain Voters." This only includes, I have heard, those who have voted in the past two elections and answer other questions satisfactorily. During the 2002 gubernatorial race, the polls, which were more accurate, used a different methodology of "Likely Voters." (See http://www.surveyusa.com/electiontrackrecord.html) Of course, narrowing the field to only the most absolutely certain voters will produce a more right-leaning result. With voter interest in this election at a high level, we expect HIGHER turnout than in 11/2002.

Second, the last Survey USA poll on the recall, conducted on 8/9-8/10, showed the recall leading by a WIDER margin of "66% to 32%." AND, Schwarzenegger had a MUCH LARGER lead over Bustamante of "51% to 17%"! (See poll at http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html)If we are to take anything from this new poll, we must see that this poll's Schwarzenegger lead has been better than sliced in half, from 34 points to only 16 points. That is very significant, even in a deeply flawed poll.

the Right isn't the only Party doing this.

Usually they don't even mention Cruz, unless they are attacking him, or talking about how much better Arnold is.

The California media doesn't even pretend to be objective.

They are promoting yes on recall, yes on Arnold on TV, radio, and newspapers all over the state.

The right wing owned media wants Arnold.

I agree that the media of all ideological stripes have gone bonkers in their love-fest for Arnie's half-baked platitudes. But the citizenry really is more serious than that. And poll movements are bearing that out. The fanfare is dying down and concrete realities of party politics will still sink Arnie, most likely. As a rank oppotunist, he is in a precarious position. I have certainly seen less than flattering coverage in the print media. Bustamante's image is rising now that the party is finally settling in for the no-yes strategy. When the "bullets" Bob Mulholland spoke of start to fly, I think a broad mass of people will be repulsed by Arnie. We'll see... Strategically, take your enemy seriously... but tactically have contempt for him.

I propose to Californians to watch your game and ignore the media! We'll all do same next year!

lol

...why are Republicans freaking out? And why has Arnold gone on the offensive?

I agree, bogus poll.

Already, he's promised not to take special interest money, then proceeds to take money from CEO's and corporations. Liar, liar, liar...

Davis is in deep yogurt without a spoon.

But it ain't by no 28 points, that's all I'm saying. This election will be close on the pro-recall side.

Besides, my MAIN point as stated is that Bustamante is indeed the frontrunner in part two of the ballot, not the actor. My number one objective is to keep a governor receptive to a progressive agenda in the governor's office. Bustamante is the one on part two that fulfills that.

But, all this aside, what we must agree on is that defeating the recall and getting more votes for Bustamante is the priority we all in CA must work hard for.

So the question is- What shape is Cruz in... and reliable polls say he is looking good.

I've heard that they aren't reliable. Another poll had Bustamente ahead.

The one with all the fascists on it... a poster who claimed to be part of Survey USA was posting. His message line was right-wing. So, if he was for real, the company has at least one looney on board. But, more empirically, their "Certain Voter" methodology is way off base. This will not be a low, low-turnout election.

(A man walks past the pollster on the street)

Pollster: Excuse me, I'm taking a survey of California voters. Could I ask you a couple of questions? First, if the recall election were held today, how would you vote: in favor of recall, or against recall?

(The man gives the pollster a blank stare.)

Pollster: Um, I said, I'm taking a survey of California voters--

Man: Ah, si! Ah, si! Vivo en California!

Pollster: Hmm..."si" means "yes." That's one vote in favor of recall. Next, which candidate do you prefer as governor: Cruz Bustamente or Arnold Schwarzenegger?

Man: Schwartzenegger es un asno estúpido! (He walks away)

Pollster: He said, "Schwartzenegger." That's one more vote for the Governator. (Smiling) Things are looking good. Excuse me, I'm taking a survey of California voters...