I read about something Barnicle said while on Hardball so I decided to e-mail him. Matthews was talking about the polls on Bush and Kerry, Barnicle said he believed the polls that had Bush 11 points ahead. Even though those polls have proven to be flawed by Rasmussen and Zogby. So I took the time to write an e-mail to Barnicle, after all he claims to be a Kerry supporter, and they say he is a Democrat. I wondered why he would believe these flawed polls. I will post what I wrote to him, then his lame ass corporate non-answer reply.
Original e-mail to Barnicle:
Subject: Hey Barnicle..........
Date: Thu, 09 Sep 2004 22:23:40
To: mikebarniclenews@aol.com
I see you on Imus and Hardball so let me ask you a
couple questions.
Why did you fall for those flawed Time and
Newsweek polls that had Bush 11 points ahead. When
everyone with a computer and internet access knew
they were bogus. On Hardball you said the double
digit lead for Bush sounded more realistic to you.
Yet many other polls only gave Bush a small
bounce, Zogby and Rasmussen both have Bush 1 to 2
points ahead, the ICR poll has Bush 1 point ahead,
and the ARG poll has them tied.
The Democrats on the internet caught the flaws in
the Time and Newsweek polls almost as fast as the
results were put out. It was posted on many
Democratic web sites on the net almost instantly.
Time and Newsweek sampled too many Republicans in
their polls, Rasmussen and Zogby both posted
explanations for these polls on their web sites.
Here is what Zogby said:
It Is Not An 11 Point Race
by John Zogby
Their
sample of registered voters
includes 38% Republican, 31% Democrat and 31%
Independent voters. If we look at the three last
Presidential elections, the spread was 34%
Democrats, 34% Republicans and 33% Independents
(in 1992 with Ross Perot in the race); 39%
Democrats, 34% Republicans, and 27% Independents
in 1996; and 39% Democrats, 35% Republicans and
26% Independents in 2000. While party
identification can indeed change within the
electorate, there is no evidence anywhere to
suggest that Democrats will only represent 31% of
the total vote this year.
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=859
Here is what Rasmussen said:
Differences Between Polls
September 6, 2004--We have been flooded with
e-mails asking (in varying tones of politeness)
why our poll results seem different from those
released by Time and Newsweek.
Those polls appear to have the mirror image
problem of a Los Angeles Times poll in June
reportedly showing Kerry with a huge lead. That LA
Times survey included too many Democrats in their
sample. Today, it seems likely that Time and
Newsweek included too many Republicans.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Poll%20Differences%20Sept%206.htm
If the country is split 50/50 how could Bush get
an 11 point bounce, and how come you guys in the
media report flawed polls while ignoring the polls
put out by professional polling outlets like
Rasmussen and Zogby ?
When Chris Matthews saw the Time and Newsweek
polls he basically declared the race over and
asked who the Democrats would run in 2008. Tim
Russert only reported the Time and Newsweek polls,
even though many other polls had Bush 1 to 3
points ahead. Can you tell me why the media cherry
picked the Time and Newsweek polls, while ignoring
the Rasmussen and Zogby polls.
I have a folder in my bookmarks called polls, in
that folder I have 8 or 10 polling web sites. I
check it almost daily, so I knew that 11 point
lead was wrong almost as soon as it was reported.
And I am just one guy with no money who has a
computer, so how come the powerful media can not
find out what I did and report it. And how come
they cherry picked the only 2 polls that had Bush
11 points ahead.
Can you please explain this to me Mike, I just
don't get it.
Steve
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Reply from Barnicle:
From: Mikebarniclenews@aol.com
Date: Fri, 10 Sep 2004 15:41:35
Subject: Re: Hey Barnicle..........
STEVE: I DON'T PAY MUCH ATTENTION TO POLLS...I PAY MORE ATTENTION TO MY STOMACH, INSIGHT AND HEARING...UNLESS SEN. KERRY STEPS IT UP A NOTCH, HE COULD BE GONE BEFORE THE FIRST DEBATE.
MB