Reality Check: What Caused Bush to Surpass Kerry in the Polls?

ecstatic

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Sun Oct-17-04 07:05 PM
Original message

Poll question: Reality Check: What Caused Bush to Surpass Kerry in the Polls?

I don't know if FNC was spinning or not, but they claim Bush is now ahead by 8 percentage points. WHY???

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EmperorHasNoClothes

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Sun Oct-17-04 07:06 PM
Response to Original message

1. Gallup is full of crap

Their sampling is off, see other threads.

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ecstatic

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Sun Oct-17-04 07:07 PM
Response to Reply #1

2. It seems to me to be the Mary Cheney thingie

Although I voted "ignorant electorate." How else can one explain Bush and Kerry being neck and neck??

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DemNoir

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Sun Oct-17-04 07:07 PM
Response to Original message

3. Another useless fright post

Thanks for your input!

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ecstatic

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Sun Oct-17-04 07:09 PM
Response to Reply #3

6. Yes, I am very frightened

At the thought of Bush getting in for another 4 years!

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Dogmudgeon

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Sun Oct-17-04 07:09 PM
Response to Original message

4. Two Words: POLLS LAG

Polls lag real events by 2-7 days, depending on the methodology.

Polls are good for tracking trends and making corrections to the course, but they're no good for predicting success or failure.

We're all too keyed up. Ignore the polls for a while and regain your perspective. It's the only way to read a poll for any kind of insight.

--bkl

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deadparrot

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Sun Oct-17-04 07:09 PM
Response to Original message

5. When you sample 9% more Repukes than Dems, you'll get skewed results.

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newsguyatl

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Sun Oct-17-04 07:10 PM
Response to Original message

7. bush's repeated use of the "L" word

labeling kerry "the most liberal senator" -- that scares folks. and it's a tactic that's working.

kerry was a fool not to respond to it in the debate.

he just smiled and shook his head. and it's hurt him.

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Jacobin

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Sun Oct-17-04 08:08 PM
Response to Reply #7

9. Bingo. Rush, Hannity et al have made the "L" word equivalent to

pedophilia among the great unwashed. Probably 30 million plus voters have that knee jerk reaction.

Funny thing is, Bush is far far from a traditional conservative...huge deficits, merging church and state, government interference in reproductive rights, invading countries for sport and profit.

Amazing how the neo-cons and fundies have taken over.

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drunkdriver-in-chief

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Sun Oct-17-04 07:54 PM
Response to Original message

8. I agree the polls are BS but i don't know about the vote

Kerry may get 60% and still lose. The crooks at the GOP have made democracy a hoax.

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