Vaccine Poker (from The Nation)

http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20041101&s=siegel

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Instead of worrying about the flu, our government has been busy spending millions stockpiling over a million doses of anthrax vaccine (with no use for it in the foreseeable future), and more than 200,000 doses of smallpox vaccine (without a single case occurring here since 1949). These actions were taken so that the Department of Homeland Security can look like it takes the threat of biological agents seriously. A bioterror attack would likely affect only hundreds, or at the worst thousands, yet the expensive preparations are for millions of potential victims. BioPort makes the only anthrax vaccine, an unwieldy six-dose process that many military recruits have complained gives them a flu-like syndrome. But fearing an anthrax attack since 2001, Congress has contracted with this company for millions of dollars in vaccine production. Since the vaccine is perishable, and there is no anthrax, most of what is produced is thrown away. Similarly, panicked over smallpox in 2002 and 2003, the government purchased 291,400 doses of the antiquated live virus vaccine, which was found to have significant side-effects, including heart problems. Ultimately, only 38,549 people were vaccinated and more than 250,000 doses were discarded. Meanwhile, influenza kills approximately 40,000 people in the United States every year and hospitalizes more than 200,000.

The CDC has asserted that at least 185 million Americans are at sufficiently high risk to warrant their getting the flu vaccine. This number includes those in contact with high-risk patients with chronic illnesses, pregnancy, asthma, advanced age. Flu is passed easily from person to person by airborne droplets. Hand washing and staying away from sick people offers some protection, but vaccine offers the most protection. As of this writing, the supply of vaccine available this year is only about 54 million doses. The CDC has been begging Aventis to produce more, but the company has agreed to produce only 1 million additional doses. Is this all they can make, or all they will make? No one I've spoken to at the manufacturer has been able to give me a straight answer to that question.

Instead of spending all its vaccine money on the production of all but useless bioterror vaccines, the government, through a more prudent flu subsidy, could increase the availability of a vaccine that might actually save lives.

sure, secure the ports and borders, and fine, i'll take my shoes off at the airport.

but honestly, there's ZERO perspective to the threat of terrorism.

3,000 people died one day in 2001. far more people died from drunk driving that year, or any of a large number of preventable social and medical ills.

if terrorists could really pull off a 9/11-sized attack every day, or at least once a MONTH, THEN it would rise to the point where it merited the type response we're supposedly having.

but as it stands, if they can only pull off a major attack once every EIGHT YEARS or so, then it already is a small enough problem compared to all the other problems we face.

we shouldn't be running up huge deficits and creating 40 years of wars for what really is a MINOR security problem.

say the same thing.

But it's the old story -- people in general are horrible about gauging risk correctly, and worry about the most horrifying
and remote possibilities (like a terrorist attack or plane crash) rather than mundane ones (flu, accident deaths from not buckling seat belt, etc.).

It won't ever change except under a nationwide educational campaign, and we know how likely that is.