Josh Marshall: The country is not moving to the right

He says this election is basically a tie, with Bush getting a small edge because of turnout, but nothing has changed fundamentally since 2000.

I agree. Bush will claim a mandate, but he sure as hell doesn't have one, and it's up to us to keep fighting him.

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/index.php

:wtf: happened?

We have bigger states in our corner, but they have more states in theirs. Since the Senate takes two from every state, we are going to have an uphill battle until the demographics change significantly.

The same is true of governorships and legislatures, the more conservative states can draw the lines how they choose and thus ensure more safe House seats for Republicans. We try to offset this by doing the same thing in our states, but the way the population breaks down makes it harder for to leverage a broader margin than they can over more states.

It's not likely to change anytime soon, unfortunately, unless the Supreme Court comes down hard against redistricting. Despite the favorable ruling in the Texas case, I'm not holding my breath.

DTH

...with no net gain, I think. NH switched to Kerry, NM switched to Bush.

No mandate that I can see.

I still think the long term demographics favor the Democrats if they play it smart and embrace the causes of Hispanic voters, run good candidates for local races and state races, etc. We should be competitive in Texas by 2008. Florida is eventually going to be Dem as well. Add those to the Gore and Kerry states and we win every time without the rest of the South. What we may lose in the upper midwest (Minnesota, Wisconsin) will be replaced by Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, possibly Virginia and North Carolina. And both Kerry and Gore proved we are competitive in Ohio. Gay marriage is going to sour as an issue when people realize it doesn't get them jobs, healthcare or educate their children. The Repubs are going to overplay their hand on this, imo.

The state Dems. picked up a lot of seats. In Colorado, the Dems. control both houses of the legislature for the first time since 1962!

The west and midwest are fertile ground.

has sipped the Kool-Aid. Of course, it's shifting to the right. A one-point win is a win in football, basketball, any game, and politics is a game.

The Rs own Congress, the White House, and will soon acquire an iron grip on the judiciary. what part of "lost" does he not understand?

It's time to regroup and focus on economic issues. Social initiative will have to wait until we're back in power, if we're ever going to return.

n/t

He isn't disputing the win or loss; he's disputing the interpretations of it. He's arguing against panic, and a turn to the right, because people misread the signs of this election.

I think there was a tremendous amount accomplished by Democrats this past year. I also think it was only the beginning.

In fact, and I'm trying hard to be emotionally distant from this issue, there has been some movement in a good direction. Our senates and house seats in many southern states were VERY precarious indeed. Outside of the south, there has been no political realignment.

Now, the Democratic Party is much more progressive, because the center-right Democrats left to the GOP. Is this good? I think it is, in the long term.

The south is a very conservative region and it's difficult in today's environment to win, with gay rights and abortion so central as litmus tests to many voters. If they weren't issues, we'd obviously be celebrating right now.

We need to learn how to play the culture war game on turf that IS favorable. It's unconsciable that a Christopher Shays or a Lincoln Chafee is reelected, or a Gordon Smith. We need to tie them to the extremism best personified by Alan Keyes, who I hope keeps up a public role in the coming period.

We can win. The GOP will become a southern-centered party, and we need to contain them as much as possible. We need to be the Pacific-Northeast-Midwest party, hopefully expanding into Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Colorado over the next few cycles.

Some Liberals piss me off more than FReepers.

But the US Government sure as hell has. We will get their right wing agenda shoved down out throats and up our asses. Mark my word.

Bush and his agenda are more RW than the majority of the country.